ATL: Ex Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion

[Gustywind]

how is the weather in Guadeloupe Gusty?

Current Weather Conditions:
Le Raizet, Guadeloupe, Guadeloupe
(TFFR) 16-16N 061-31W 11M
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Conditions at Aug 29, 2010 - 10:00 AM EDTAug 29, 2010 -
2010.08.29 1400 UTC
Wind from the NW (320 degrees) at 13 MPH (11 KT)
Visibility greater than 7 mile(s)
Sky conditions mostly cloudy
Temperature 87 F (31 C)
Heat index 97.5 F (36.4 C)
Dew Point 77 F (25 C)
Relative Humidity 70%
Pressure (altimeter) 29.83 in. Hg (1010 hPa)
ob TFFR 291400Z 32011KT 9999 SCT026 BKN150 BKN260 31/25 Q1010 NOSIG


24 Hour Summary
Time
EDT (UTC) Temperature
F (C) Dew Point
F (C) Pressure
Inches (hPa) Wind
MPH Weather
Latest 10 AM (14) Aug 29 87 (31) 77 (25) 29.83 (1010) NW 13
9 AM (13) Aug 29 86 (30) 77 (25) 29.83 (1010) NW 10
8 AM (12) Aug 29 82 (28) 77 (25) 29.83 (1010) NNW 6
7 AM (11) Aug 29 78 (26) 77 (25) 29.83 (1010) Calm
6 AM (10) Aug 29 77 (25) 75 (24) 29.83 (1010) NNE 2
5 AM (9) Aug 29 77 (25) 75 (24) 29.83 (1010) N 3
4 AM (8) Aug 29 77 (25) 73 (23) 29.83 (1010) Variable 1
3 AM (7) Aug 29 78 (26) 73 (23) 29.83 (1010) Calm
2 AM (6) Aug 29 78 (26) 75 (24) 29.83 (1010) ENE 1
1 AM (5) Aug 29 77 (25) 75 (24) 29.85 (1011) Calm
Midnight (4) Aug 29 78 (26) 75 (24) 29.88 (1012) Calm
11 PM (3) Aug 28 78 (26) 75 (24) 29.88 (1012) W 2
10 PM (2) Aug 28 78 (26) 73 (23) 29.88 (1012) Calm
9 PM (1) Aug 28 80 (27) 73 (23) 29.88 (1012) Variable 1
8 PM (0) Aug 28 80 (27) 73 (23) 29.88 (1012) Variable 2
7 PM (23) Aug 28 82 (28) 73 (23) 29.85 (1011) N 5
6 PM (22) Aug 28 84 (29) 71 (22) 29.85 (1011) N 8
5 PM (21) Aug 28 87 (31) 69 (21) 29.85 (1011) N 10
4 PM (20) Aug 28 89 (32) 71 (22) 29.85 (1011) N 9
3 PM (19) Aug 28 87 (31) 78 (26) 29.85 (1011) Variable 3
2 PM (18) Aug 28 86 (30) 78 (26) 29.88 (1012) SSW 7
1 PM (17) Aug 28 86 (30) 77 (25) 29.88 (1012) SW 3 light rain
Noon (16) Aug 28 89 (32) 77 (25) 29.91 (1013) S 7
Oldest 11 AM (15) Aug 28 89 (32) 75 (24) 29.91 (1013) Variable 2

[Stephanie]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-avn.html

Doesn't look like Earl has any intention of turning in that loop.

Watch out islands! I hope that you're prepared or are preparing right now.

It could just keep going W for a while. But this always happens at the end of a ridge...they look like they are just going to keep right on trucking only to turn abruptly at the last minute. We'll see what happens.

When we start to see Earl slowing down, that could be an indicator of a turn.

[HUC]

Gustty just go to its sport msbe here in BasseTerre, since 9am the wind begin to blow from tthe NNO10 to 20 and now 33KH( 20mph ) in gusts overcasst binclouds,some cumulus seen over te carribean waters traveling N/Soutth.I will with Gusty keep you in formed but you be prepared

[Stephanie]

Gustty just go to its sport msbe here in BasseTerre, since 9am the wind begin to blow from tthe NNO10 to 20 and now 33KH( 20mph ) in gusts overcasst binclouds,some cumulus seen over te carribean waters traveling N/Soutth.I will with Gusty keep you in formed but you be prepared

Take care and please keep us updated.

[AdamFirst]

Big slowdown projected as it makes that turn. Maybe the gfs hasn't been that farfetched in terms of eating 97L...especially since 97L isn't developing at all.

[jinftl]

Based on the 11am forecast track, it is possible to calculate an estimated 'closest approach' to any of the islands using the tool on the attached link.

http://stormcarib.com/closest2.htm


Results for San Juan, Puerto Rico (18.45N, 66W):
The approximate Closest Point of Approach (CPA) is located near 19.8N, 64.7W or about 124.1 miles (199.8 km) from your location. The estimated time of when the center of the storm will be at that location is in about 37.7 hours (Tuesday, August 31 at 0:42AM AST).

Based on the 11am forecast for wind radii, the sustained hurricane force winds would stay about 100 miles north of San Juan. Given the time frame and margin for error, it seems the NHC felt ok not issuing a hurricane warning at this time for Puerto Rico. Made sense to go with a t.s. warning for sure.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 18.5N 62.7W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 110SE 60SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 19.6N 64.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 35NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 75SW 120NW.

This is not a closed case in any way....it wouldn't take much of a change in heading to move the worst conditions much closer....

The island forecast to have the closet approach to the eye of Earl is Anguilla...they will be at the outer edge of the sustained hurricane force winds (since eye is forecast to pass north, south side of storm is forecast to have smaller radii of hurricane force winds).

Results for Anguilla (18.2N, 63.08W):
The approximate Closest Point of Approach (CPA) is located near 18.6N, 62.8W or about 30.8 miles (49.6 km) from your location. The estimated time of when the center of the storm will be at that location is in about 24.9 hours (Monday, August 30 at 11:54AM AST).




Caution: Remember that forecasts are 'just' forecasts. The exact path of a hurricane is very hard to predict, so the uncertainties are large, especially for the 48 and 72 hour positions. Also, do not focus on just the eye of the storm. The windfield of hurricanes can be huge, so although that it seems that the eye of the storm stays quite far away from you, the winds don't need to. More important the torrential rainfall normally associated with tropical systems can cover large areas and can cause flooding and mudslides. In fact, most fatalities associated with hurricanes are attributed to the rainfall, not the windforce itself. So be sure to look at the whole picture!

[Gustywind]

Gustty just go to its sport msbe here in BasseTerre, since 9am the wind begin to blow from tthe NNO10 to 20 and now 33KH( 20mph ) in gusts overcasst binclouds,some cumulus seen over te carribean waters traveling N/Soutth.I will with Gusty keep you in formed but you be prepared

Yeah HUC thanks to help me for the coordination time to me to work my sport 1 hour, after i will be back and in shape tracking this dangerous Hurricane EARL. Hope that the west trend will stop right now, that could pose serious problem for the Northern Leewards but those souther,too St Kitts Nevis even Barbuda and Antigua. Move away Earl and go north!
Hey this little boy is growing nicely hope that we won't have to deal with cat 2 cane with 85kts but the way is growing we could face surprises in store especially for the Northern Leewards.
Be safe and dry all
Hey Huc you beat on the 100 meters forecasting weather

[TheBurn]

What was the last direct hit on PR....Georges? Still headed west, don't see how Earl will miss the islands......MGC

Jeanne 2004 maybe?

[Gustywind]

Gustty just go to its sport msbe here in BasseTerre, since 9am the wind begin to blow from tthe NNO10 to 20 and now 33KH( 20mph ) in gusts overcasst binclouds,some cumulus seen over te carribean waters traveling N/Soutth.I will with Gusty keep you in formed but you be prepared

Take care and please keep us updated.

Thanks Stephanie we will try as usual and as the power goes...

[ROCK]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm3.html

the window is closing for the time being....as he deepening though the window opens more..

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm4.html

[Aric Dunn]

It had better start turning soon or PR will likely take a hit.

[ROCK]

I agree Aric...left side of the cone...right now....

[Aric Dunn]

I agree Aric...left side of the cone...right now....

has been its whole life time.. and regardless of all the model support.. lol

[msbee]

Based on the 11am forecast track, it is possible to calculate an estimated 'closest approach' to any of the islands using the tool on the attached link.

http://stormcarib.com/closest2.htm


Results for San Juan, Puerto Rico (18.45N, 66W):
The approximate Closest Point of Approach (CPA) is located near 19.8N, 64.7W or about 124.1 miles (199.8 km) from your location. The estimated time of when the center of the storm will be at that location is in about 37.7 hours (Tuesday, August 31 at 0:42AM AST).

Based on the 11am forecast for wind radii, the sustained hurricane force winds would stay about 100 miles north of San Juan. Given the time frame and margin for error, it seems the NHC felt ok not issuing a hurricane warning at this time for Puerto Rico. Made sense to go with a t.s. warning for sure.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 18.5N 62.7W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 110SE 60SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 19.6N 64.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 35NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 75SW 120NW.

This is not a closed case in any way....it wouldn't take much of a change in heading to move the worst conditions much closer....

The island forecast to have the closet approach to the eye of Earl is Anguilla...they will be at the outer edge of the sustained hurricane force winds (since eye is forecast to pass north, south side of storm is forecast to have smaller radii of hurricane force winds).

Results for Anguilla (18.2N, 63.08W):
The approximate Closest Point of Approach (CPA) is located near 18.6N, 62.8W or about 30.8 miles (49.6 km) from your location. The estimated time of when the center of the storm will be at that location is in about 24.9 hours (Monday, August 30 at 11:54AM AST).




Caution: Remember that forecasts are 'just' forecasts. The exact path of a hurricane is very hard to predict, so the uncertainties are large, especially for the 48 and 72 hour positions. Also, do not focus on just the eye of the storm. The windfield of hurricanes can be huge, so although that it seems that the eye of the storm stays quite far away from you, the winds don't need to. More important the torrential rainfall normally associated with tropical systems can cover large areas and can cause flooding and mudslides. In fact, most fatalities associated with hurricanes are attributed to the rainfall, not the windforce itself. So be sure to look at the whole picture!

Results for St.Maarten/St.Martin (18.05N, 63.12W):
The approximate Closest Point of Approach (CPA) is located near 18.5N, 62.8W or about 40.9 miles (65.9 km) from your location. The estimated time of when the center of the storm will be at that location is in about 24.5 hours (Monday, August 30 at 11:30AM AST).

[pcolaman]

Agree that the islands are in for a storm for sure .

[paintplaye]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm3.html

the window is closing for the time being....as he deepening though the window opens more..

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm4.html

At the same time rock it Earl does make contact with Puerto Rico and weakens some then that could even close the weakness even faster. The models continue to intensify it fast but if Earl has all this land interaction then it won't intensify nearly as much.

[HURAKAN]

Latest, open to the NW

[artist]

anyone having problems with the ghcc site? I can't get it to work for looping.

[chris_fit]

Latest, open to the NW

I think it should close up pretty quick, lots of organization going on since 5am...

[ROCK]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm3.html

the window is closing for the time being....as he deepening though the window opens more..

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm4.html

At the same time rock it Earl does make contact with Puerto Rico and weakens some then that could even close the weakness even faster. The models continue to intensify it fast but if Earl has all this land interaction then it won't intensify nearly as much.

Luis could tell us better how a storm interact with PR...such a small island...I guess the core would need to go right down the spine for any disruption to happen....it would be very temporary though...