ATL: FIONA - Models

[Wx_Warrior]

Ivan, thoughts on the model that you love to hate?

Poor GFS struggles to even develop "Fiona."

[Ivanhater]

Ivan, thoughts on the model that you love to hate?

Poor GFS struggles to even develop "Fiona."

Well, it hasn't been consistent with landfall location (being in the long range) but the trend is hard to ignore. Further South and west. I usually look at the ensembles more than the operational.

Yeah, this is the year where we see the weakness and strength of the new GFS. Looks like on of the weaknesses is when we have multiple Cape Verde systems. It just can't latch onto speed and the environment between them.

[Wx_Warrior]

How much further S & W do you think it will send "fiona"...?

You have a link or pic of latest ensembles?

[Ivanhater]

00z Euro Ensemble hot off the presses...Further South and west with most getting in the Central Gulf after crossing S. Florida...

[Wx_Warrior]

What's crazy is, my first thought when 97L was new to the scene, I thought NGOM...no scientific reason at all. I hope to look like a fool, but gut tells me other wise.

[Ivanhater]

What's crazy is, my first thought when 97L was new to the scene, I thought NGOM...no scientific reason at all. I hope to look like a fool, but gut tells me other wise.

Well now you have some model support

[ConvergenceZone]

Does anyone think that this is a trend? or a fluke run?
I'll admit, that's just downright scary!

[Ivanhater]

Does anyone think that this is a trend? or a fluke run?
I'll admit, that's just downright scary!

Not a fluke when it is multiple runs with the Ensembles agreeing

[Wx_Warrior]

LOL @ Ivan....

Agree with Ivan...It may not enter the GOM, but I am going with a CONUS landfall here. No reason to think otherwise right now.

[jlauderdal]

until gfs is sensible with developing the system then im throwing it out, euro trending west which is no surprise based on its left bias, we had some discussion on the board last night about trends, standing by my fiona never sees charleston within 200 miles either side. interesting earl modeling was way to far right which may be the case for fiona, i am going long range and saying this system makes its first landfall somewhere south of savannah and it makes at least two landfalls as a hurricane. just read the earl disco, interesting ramifications for fiona as they are moving earl out of the picture faster then previously forecasted, this would lead me to believe that fiona has a chance to be stronger based on earl out of the way and also allow the system to head more west, lets see how the modeling handles all of this and see if the gfs can show us something

[superfly]

Andrew pt2?

[jlauderdal]

Andrew pt2?

in terms of intensity, who knows, intensity is a mystery...in terms of track, no as far as how andrew came in, now im not saying it wont hit homestead but the path would be different, we are really far out in time here...im interested to see how the modeling handles a faster earl and what happens if the GFS comes around with an intense system like the euro, of course the euro could be wrong but i doubt it due how each model has handled things so far

[jinftl]

Not seeing anything too alarming with the latest model runs displayed below...of course, need to watch the trend over time

[ColinDelia]

6z GFS vs 0z GFS @ 54/60hours. Moving slower this run

6z


0z

[ColinDelia]

6z GFS vs 0z GFS @ 66/72hours.

6z


0z

[ColinDelia]

72 hours

[ColinDelia]

78 hours

[ColinDelia]

GFS keeping it weak. have to wonder how much that will effect the track here. It's been difficult to believe anything the GFS has thrown out so far for "Fiona".

[ColinDelia]

84 hours. Into the NE Caribbean.



90 hours

[ColinDelia]

96 hours