ATL: Ex-Tropical Storm FIONA - Discussion

[Dencolo]

Fci, if we should rely on climo then we should be watching the CLIPPER....point is prior tracks though entertaining do not provide us anything. We have no idea what the synopics were in 1913..sure we can guess but every year is different. If 97 forms at a different lat or moves more westward in a weaken state you get a totally different set of tracks...that do not favor RECURVE...

climo is ever changing...its like when someone says we are over due for a major....there is no such thing as over due.....there is no odds. Do we really play the odds when we are talking about a hurricane? We aint in Vegas.....

The first sentence would be incorrect. As 57 pointed out, we don't use climo as a forecast, but rather as a tool to understand the past odds of storm paths. Averaging out these paths into a forecast really doesn't make any sense. However, understanding that say 10% of the time a storm in this location will affect the U.S. does.

When storms are this far out from land, climatology is a good tool to understand a variety of potential outcomes for the given storm. However, it needs to be used in the correct context.

[LowndesCoFire]

Think of it this way...if Jacksonville or Savannah takes a hit this year (even though climo all but laughs at it) next year it will be part of climo and nobody would discount it. Just because something has never happened or has been 10, 20 or 100 years since it has happened...does not mean it WILL NOT HAPPEN! Like it was stated earlier, climo is ever changing.

[ROCK]

Fci, if we should rely on climo then we should be watching the CLIPPER....point is prior tracks though entertaining do not provide us anything. We have no idea what the synopics were in 1913..sure we can guess but every year is different. If 97 forms at a different lat or moves more westward in a weaken state you get a totally different set of tracks...that do not favor RECURVE...

climo is ever changing...its like when someone says we are over due for a major....there is no such thing as over due.....there is no odds. Do we really play the odds when we are talking about a hurricane? We aint in Vegas.....

The first sentence would be incorrect. As 57 pointed out, we don't use climo as a forecast, but rather as a tool to understand the past odds of storm paths. Averaging out these paths into a forecast really doesn't make any sense. However, understanding that say 10% of the time a storm in this location will affect the U.S. does.

When storms are this far out from land, climatology is a good tool to understand a variety of potential outcomes for the given storm. However, it needs to be used in the correct context.

How do odds have anything to do with storm track in the now? Potential outcomes of a TC? you are not understanding the point. Climo is happening now not 25 years ago...knowing that a storm formed in 1913 at the same lat and recurved shows us nothing of the future track of 97L....a nice map to look at...hell I have had this booked mark for 5 years now. I am not going produce odds on a hurricane effecting the CONUS by using it....

[Vortex]

00z cmc just misses islands but whats important is the bend back west at the end of run




http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[WeatherEmperor]

1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ROUGHLY MIDWAY BETWEEN THE WEST COAST OF
AFRICA AND THE LESSER ANTILLES. THE CIRCULATION AROUND THIS LOW
HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED THIS EVENING...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
COULD FORM AT ANY TIME DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT ABOUT 20 MPH.

[Dencolo]

Fci, if we should rely on climo then we should be watching the CLIPPER....point is prior tracks though entertaining do not provide us anything. We have no idea what the synopics were in 1913..sure we can guess but every year is different. If 97 forms at a different lat or moves more westward in a weaken state you get a totally different set of tracks...that do not favor RECURVE...

climo is ever changing...its like when someone says we are over due for a major....there is no such thing as over due.....there is no odds. Do we really play the odds when we are talking about a hurricane? We aint in Vegas.....

The first sentence would be incorrect. As 57 pointed out, we don't use climo as a forecast, but rather as a tool to understand the past odds of storm paths. Averaging out these paths into a forecast really doesn't make any sense. However, understanding that say 10% of the time a storm in this location will affect the U.S. does.

When storms are this far out from land, climatology is a good tool to understand a variety of potential outcomes for the given storm. However, it needs to be used in the correct context.

How do odds have anything to do with storm track in the now? Potential outcomes of a TC? you are not understanding the point. Climo is happening now not 25 years ago...knowing that a storm formed in 1913 at the same lat and recurved shows us nothing of the future track of 97L....a nice map to look at...hell I have had this booked mark for 5 years now. I am not going produce odds on a hurricane effecting the CONUS by using it....

It's funny you asked about how odds affect the potential outcomes of a TC. Especially since the definition of odds is 'the probability that something will occur'. Furthermore, climatology is NOT just happening now - it is the composite of weather over a number of years. There is a reason pro mets like 57 use climo as a resource. It's not the only resource and you must understand how it can be mileading if not understood correctly, but it is a resource. For example if climo suggests a recurve half the time, but you are in a year with excessive ridging - there is a good bet that this year the storm may not recurve and certain areas should be aware.

We may be discussing things on a different path, so back to 97L. It appears as if the models are as divergent as climatology. Though it looks like it could eventually end up very close to where Earl is currently. A busy time for the islands for sure.

[ROCK]

I give up...

the CMC run is very telling...its sniffing out the ridge thats for sure...

[canes101]

00z cmc just misses islands but whats important is the bend back west at the end of run




http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

Do you have the link for the main page where all those models are?? I use to have it but can no longer find it.. It was a grey page that had all the animated models etc... Thanks to anyone that can help!

[Vortex]

here ya go cane



http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

[bob rulz]

They stayed with 80%? That's surprising. Based on the appearance on IR I would honestly expect 100% and "a tropical depression appears to be forming" and then they wait for visibles at 5am to upgrade.

[canes101]

here ya go cane



http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

Yes Vortex!!! Excellent! Exactly what I was looking for. Thanks so much... Added back to my favorites.. Really appreciate your help

[edgeblade]

Hello All,

I live in SE VA and if 97L does what some of the models are predicting, then I for one am very worried. Isabel may have only been a Cat 1 up here, but it did Cat 2 or 3 damage. I can't even fathom how bad a true Cat 3 or 4 could be here. We were without power for a week or more during Isabel and you couldn't go 1/4 mile without seeing trees down. It was a big time mess up here. I'm all about monitoring the tropics and such, but I don't want anything like that here again, and hope it stays out to sea enough to keep its affects away, personally.

[fci]

I give up...

the CMC run is very telling...its sniffing out the ridge thats for sure...

What are you giving up on?

The fact that odds are used to predict what will happen with a system?
Do you see NO correlation between climatology and predicting what a system will do?

The odds are indisputable.
They do not fortell exactly what will happen, only what will probably happen.

Will there be a freeze every year in South Florida?
No, climatology says it is not a common occurrence.
So, plants are planted here with the expectation that there will not be a freeze every year.
According to your logic, we should throw out history, throw our hands in the air and give up.

I think I now "give up" on trying to instill logic into this conversation!!!

[Weatherfreak000]

This has to be upgraded tomorrow morning.

[WeatherGuesser]

This has to be upgraded tomorrow morning.

This morning (Sunday)? Or Monday morning?

[bob rulz]

I'm a bit surprised that it hasn't been upgraded already, it looks very good.

[ColinDelia]

SHIPS forecast track from OFCI. Does that mean there will be an upgrade or is there a non-public forecast?

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/stext/ ... _ships.txt

[superfly]

Looks great this morning, should be TD at 11.

[senorpepr]

What I'm guessing on the lack of upgrade is, looking at SSMI, there doesn't appear to be any significant westerly winds on the south side of the low. The circulation still appears to be a bit broad and somewhat elongated. That being said, it does look like it's transitioning from a tropical cusp into a cyclone, so later today is possible. I think the next SSMI pass will be the make or break.

[senorpepr]

SHIPS forecast track from OFCI. Does that mean there will be an upgrade or is there a non-public forecast?

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/stext/ ... _ships.txt

Looking at the FTP site, they are running OFCL and OFCI on 97L. Wind speeds were kept constant throughout 120 (30 kt), but the latitude/longitude is adjusted through time.

Here is the OFCI from the 06Z run: