ATL: EARL - Models

[Ikester]

100 miles further south maybe. The GFS is the more trusted model here though...

[ConvergenceZone]

I don't see an image there gator

EDIT: Okay Now I see it...It was my system.

[jaxfladude]

This is NOT a trend that I like at all for anyone out there!

[ROCK]

the GFS has been horrible with Earl thus far....under doing the ridge....NAM though its the NAM is showing a stronger ridge in place....to sharp of curve IMO....if I was FL....well you get my point...

[pricetag56]

it looks like unfortunately the ridge will inevitably keep this on a more westward track.
just means people have to be ready to do whatever thats all. its been a long while since a storm has hit the east coast so this should be a wake upcall for those people

[ROCK]

100 miles further south maybe. The GFS is the more trusted model here though...

I wouldnt trust this new GFS as far as I could throw it.....CMC and the EURO is what should be determining track here.....

[Florida1118]

the GFS has been horrible with Earl thus far....under doing the ridge....NAM though its the NAM is showing a stronger ridge in place....to sharp of curve IMO....if I was FL....well you get my point...

I hate the Florida part of what you just said. lol. Ive got my plan so just case which I dont think it will happen Earl marches here. Im still on recurve for now.

[gatorcane]

00Z GFS similar to the 06Z GFS. Misses the Eastern CONUS it looks like. Note yet another trough to save the day (far upper left-hand side of pic)

[stormchazer]

There is no such thing as "too sharp a curve". We all know that a Hurricane is like a spinning top. A bit simplistic, but it will follow whatever path that is of least resistance.

[ROCK]

the GFS has been horrible with Earl thus far....under doing the ridge....NAM though its the NAM is showing a stronger ridge in place....to sharp of curve IMO....if I was FL....well you get my point...

I hate the Florida part of what you just said. lol. Ive got my plan so just case which I dont think it will happen Earl marches here. Im still on recurve for now.

as most people are..none of the models saw this westward trek today. there was just enough distance between Dee and Earl today for the high to fill in the gap....Earl was weaker then thus more westward...

[SouthFLTropics]

100 miles further south maybe. The GFS is the more trusted model here though...

I wouldnt trust this new GFS as far as I could throw it.....CMC and the EURO is what should be determining track here.....

I'm with you Rock...Something is funny about the new GFS...I think they need to go back to the drawing board with it. Just looking at the flow of clouds I could see Earl lifting NW above PR but then turning back to the West after it gets away from the influence from the UL trough over Cuba and Hispanola. I know that the NAM isn't that great with the tropics but it does do a decent job with the highs over North America. Even a clock that is dead is right twice a day...Just a thought.

SFT

[Ikester]

Well a hit and a near miss are two very different things. Sure, it may get close enough to bring a few limbs down, rough surf and rain, but it's all about the core, baby. LOL. Unfortunately being this far out and being that close is certainly a cause for concern. What really worries me is if the Euro shows a NAM solution.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Z

the GFS has been horrible with Earl thus far....under doing the ridge....NAM though its the NAM is showing a stronger ridge in place....to sharp of curve IMO....if I was FL....well you get my point...

I hate the Florida part of what you just said. lol. Ive got my plan so just case which I dont think it will happen Earl marches here. Im still on recurve for now.

Keep that plan handy for 97l though. You very well could need it for that one. That is the one that has my real attention even though Earl is starting to raise some eyebrows tonight.

[ROCK]

There is no such thing as "too sharp a curve". We all know that a Hurricane is like a spinning top. A bit simplistic, but it will follow whatever path that is of least resistance.

its gradual slow down and curve....if Earl is to far west at some point it going up the EC....it aint going to stall and wait around for a trof to pick it up...

[ROCK]

100 miles further south maybe. The GFS is the more trusted model here though...

I wouldnt trust this new GFS as far as I could throw it.....CMC and the EURO is what should be determining track here.....

I'm with you Rock...Something is funny about the new GFS...I think they need to go back to the drawing board with it. Just looking at the flow of clouds I could see Earl lifting NW above PR but then turning back to the West after it gets away from the influence from the UL trough over Cuba and Hispanola. I know that the NAM isn't that great with the tropics but it does do a decent job with the highs over North America. Even a clock that is dead is right twice a day...Just a thought.

SFT

agreed,,,its needs some tweeking after the season is over.....IMO..

[ROCK]

Well a hit and a near miss are two very different things. Sure, it may get close enough to bring a few limbs down, rough surf and rain, but it's all about the core, baby. LOL. Unfortunately being this far out and being that close is certainly a cause for concern. What really worries me is if the Euro shows a NAM solution.

I am staying up for the ECM.....I am sure Ivan will be up if he aint vodka cranberries tonight...

[stormchazer]

No argument Rock. Earl has certainly not followed the plan thus far. Maybe it is how we perceive a "sharp curve".That being said, if a weakness happens,a hurricane will follow it, no matter how "sharp the turn" might be.

[Vortex]

00z nogaps a near direct hit on PR





https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[ROCK]

00z nogaps a near direct hit on PR





https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

Hate to say it since it is the NOGAPS and will hit PR but it does look like a good run....

[Ikester]

Well a hit and a near miss are two very different things. Sure, it may get close enough to bring a few limbs down, rough surf and rain, but it's all about the core, baby. LOL. Unfortunately being this far out and being that close is certainly a cause for concern. What really worries me is if the Euro shows a NAM solution.

I am staying up for the ECM.....I am sure Ivan will be up if he aint vodka cranberries tonight...

Mmmmmm, not a bad idea! <runs to the kitchen>