ATL: Ex Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion

[Ikester]

<From the Dixie Chicks> Earl has to die!

[Aric Dunn]

good discussion ... so we are going to be riding on the upper trough turning it.. not very clear what will happen..

[Vortex]

Luis is probablly outside putting the shutters up

[abajan]

They are probably taking their time because this is becoming a very bad situtation for the islands...

Well, I don’t know if I would go so far as to say that but it is somewhat disconcerting.

[gatorcane]

good discussion ... so we are going to be riding on the upper trough turning it.. not very clear what will happen..

Yeah I found that interesting since when was that supposed to turn it?

[caribepr]

Feeling a little sick to my stomach right now. Lucky to have friends watching out for my home/cart/stuff on Culebra and wishing I could be there to help get friends ready.It's hard to not be home.

[Aric Dunn]

good discussion ... so we are going to be riding on the upper trough turning it.. not very clear what will happen..

Yeah I found that interesting since when was that supposed to turn it?

I look at WV all day and the upper trough is very weak and small... im thinking he is talking about what the models are saying will turn it. well going to be interesting to see what happens.. we know from many past systems that upper troughs are much slower at turning systems.. so I expect more westward shifting..

[ronjon]

good discussion ... so we are going to be riding on the upper trough turning it.. not very clear what will happen..

Yeah I found that interesting since when was that supposed to turn it?

I know its the NAM but I don't see any sign of a trof. The upper ridge is weakening over the mid-atlantic though.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

good discussion ... so we are going to be riding on the upper trough turning it.. not very clear what will happen..

Yeah I found that interesting since when was that supposed to turn it?

This is new to me as well. Seems they are pretty sure of themselves of this trough sticking around for a while. I sure hope they are right the trough strengthens, if not

[Aric Dunn]

No certainties with this kind of verbiage. sure is a lot of unknowns..

"WHILE THE TROUGH REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY AND POSSIBLY
STRENGTHENS."

and

"WITH THE UPPER TROUGH TRYING TO TURN IT NORTHWARD AS IT
APPROACHES."

[Normandy]

They are probably taking their time because this is becoming a very bad situtation for the islands...

Well, I don’t know if I would go so far as to say that but it is somewhat disconcerting.

Not predicting doom and gloom or anything, but if Earl stays on course hell pass a hair north of the northernmost islands. Its a very real possibility that these islands will experience hurricane force winds (which are very destructive), hence the warnings. Hope you guys are prepared down there.

[gatorcane]

Well I thought a shortwave digging into the northeast us would erode the ridge. Also danielle was supposed to leave a weakness. They don't mention these reasons anymore.

[Vortex]

The gfdl hinted at this further west solution late today and the nam followed..If the 00z runs trend this way you can bet the 5am package will feature signifant changes...

[Aric Dunn]

They are probably taking their time because this is becoming a very bad situtation for the islands...

Well, I don’t know if I would go so far as to say that but it is somewhat disconcerting.

Not predicting doom and gloom or anything, but if Earl stays on course hell pass a hair north of the northernmost islands. Its a very real possibility that these islands will experience hurricane force winds (which are very destructive), hence the warnings. Hope you guys are prepared down there.

its current course is west.. would go through the NE islands and PR it will have to start a wnw turn to miss them..

[CYCLONE MIKE]

No certainties with this kind of verbiage. sure is a lot of unknowns..

"WHILE THE TROUGH REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY AND POSSIBLY
STRENGTHENS."

and

"WITH THE UPPER TROUGH TRYING TO TURN IT NORTHWARD AS IT
APPROACHES."

I don't know Aric. If this is the only thing that is between Earl turning or staying wnw/w under a building high as some models show it we will be in for some nail biting long days and nights. Im sorry but i went and looked t every wv loop of the area i could find and i have to agree with you, its there but weak. Have no confidence in it strengthening.

[Blown Away]

Looking at the windfield map now most of the energy is on the north side of the circulation. I'm sure that will change as it develops, but let's hope if Earl skirts the islands the center stays offshore.

[Normandy]

Recon found the center a bit north on the last pass, so perhaps Earl has started the WNW turn. Regardless, even if it moves WNW from this point and stays on track it still will rake the northern islands pretty good.

[Vortex]

also looking more impressive by the hour on the IR...I think many people in PR will wake up shocked to a strengthening hurricane and one that really looks like it will pass over or just north of the island if you look at the synoptics

[cycloneye]

Feeling a little sick to my stomach right now. Lucky to have friends watching out for my home/cart/stuff on Culebra and wishing I could be there to help get friends ready.It's hard to not be home.

Oh boy Mj. Lets see that nothing bad occurs not only in Culebra but in the rest of the islands.

[supercane]

Still showing some shear on UW-CIMSS analysis.