ATL: Ex Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion

[Ivanhater]

Yeah Aric, bout as close as you can get to PR, before actually going right over. Getting hammered on the southern side, basically heading just north of west.

[Aric Dunn]

its about 150 miles SW of previous run.. and the ridge over the east coast is holding strong..

[artist]

its about 150 miles SW of previous run.. and the ridge over the east coast is holding strong..

and that means no escape, right?

[gatorcane]

Systems that pass near puerto rico are usually the ones we really watch here in southern florida. But the nhc seems confident it will not be coming here.

[Aric Dunn]

its about 150 miles SW of previous run.. and the ridge over the east coast is holding strong..

and that means no escape, right?

so far no signs of recurve on the 00z nam

entering bahamas ... moving slightly north of west..

[CYCLONE MIKE]

I dont know Mike,
I am not so much focusing on where the NAM shows Earl going but more of the upper level features. That high centered over North Carolina looks pretty strong and seems like it could push him right over into the gulf. You posted another plot the other day, Nogaps, I believe that showed something very similar. Just have to wonder how strong this ridge could actually be once Danielle moves out the picture.

[Ikester]

Somebody should save the image of the 5pm cone before it is updated and see how far the cone shifts day by day. That would be interesting to see.

[Aric Dunn]

Somebody should save the image of the 5pm cone before it is updated and see how far the cone shifts day by day. That would be interesting to see.

there is a archive of everything..

[Ikester]

Somebody should save the image of the 5pm cone before it is updated and see how far the cone shifts day by day. That would be interesting to see.

there is a archive of everything..

Gotchya...blonde moment.

[Fego]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2010/EA ... hics.shtml

There you have it...

[HurricaneBelle]

Somebody should save the image of the 5pm cone before it is updated and see how far the cone shifts day by day. That would be interesting to see.

On the NHC site all the maps are archived, and in fact play in a loop so you can see how the forecast track/cone moved throughout a storm's history.

[abajan]

Somebody should save the image of the 5pm cone before it is updated and see how far the cone shifts day by day. That would be interesting to see.

Those images are found in the graphics archive at the site.

[HURAKAN]

Impressive

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Systems that pass near puerto rico are usually the ones we really watch here in southern florida. But the nhc seems confident it will not be coming here.

That is for now. We all know how fast they start adjusting the cone as more and more model runs push a system further west

[Ikester]

Well the past few days, the advisories have come out about a quarter till the hour. Tonight it is noticably longer. I just wonder if they are making 'big' changes to the forecast?

[Aric Dunn]

00z
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

over 200 miles SW of previous run. and bee lining towards SF

[abajan]

Well the past few days, the advisories have come out about a quarter till the hour. Tonight it is noticably longer. I just wonder if they are making 'big' changes to the forecast?

Make that past few years. Something seems to be up.

[Florida1118]

Their busy with something thats for sure...I dont think it would take this long to shift a track 1 degree so their up to something...

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

Hurricane warnings and watches have been issued for the islands

[Ikester]

Hurricane Watch for PR and HURRICANE WARNINGS are up for the islands! Just saw on the news.