ATL: FIONA - Models

[KWT]

Nah I didn't mate read exactly what I posted:

Yeah thats something I've notcied, but I think the CMC and possibly the Nogaps goes a little too far to the WSW and thus start this one up too far south...still I *believe that idea* above the GFS solution of it being absorbed by Earl to be honest.

I believe the idea from the CMC/Nogaps of it going WSW a decent way OVER the idea of the GFS absorbing idea.

[Ikester]

Well the models have been shifting west for days. Eventually, they (the models) will become 'hung up' on a particular location. It's like spinning the big wheel and waiting to see if the little arrow stops at your area. While I am not too concerned about this ending up in the GOM, one of the Euro ensemble members does show that as a possibility. If the models continue south towards Florida, then the GOM definitely becomes a player and lets face facts, the water has been pretty much undisturbed since Alex and that was in the west gulf.

[sunnyday]

It's just an invest that may never develop. I hate hearing the word "recurve" and "fish" by now, but that could happen, too. There's not much to work with yet.

[jlauderdal]

Wow the path Is strikingly similar to Hugo! Future model runs will certainly be interesting.

it is similar and if this system makes landfall within 200 miles either side of Charleston i will be absolutely shocked, there is just way too much error this far out, its fun to discuss of course but lets see how these models start tending over th enxt 72 hours especially as they get a handle on how far west earl the pearl makes it because at this rate its going to make it to 75W

yeah i agree as some have said above..the 'trend' is not looking good for the SE US Coast and/or maybe Florida at the moment especially with that high building in...will be more concerned if I start seeing these types of runs in the medium range of course

me too because my rule of thumb is you want to be in the bullseye beyond 72H and when south florida isnt in the bullseye i pay extra attention, we know track error is large over time and right now we are in that cone of large error but of course everybody is, long story short, i would prefer to have fiona hitting miami on these model runs this far out

[LowndesCoFire]

me too because my rule of thumb is you want to be in the bullseye beyond 72H and when south florida isnt in the bullseye i pay extra attention, we know track error is large over time and right now we are in that cone of large error but of course everybody is, long story short, i would prefer to have fiona hitting miami on these model runs this far out

Good, interesting post...I remember back in the days when Katrina and Ivan both were forecast in the longterm to land in the Big Bend of FL and coming into my area of GA. Of course, the tracks trended westward and we know where these two made landfall.

[wxman57]

Could one of you explain this ensemble? It shows multiple lows in the SW Atlantic. I don't understand that and the other models showing a specific storm.

An ensemble run of a particular model is when the same model is run multiple times with slightly different starting parameters. Changing the smallest initialization data can have a quite significant impact on where "Fiona" is forecast to track 10 days out in the future. That image which was posted shows the multiple lows because it's a composite image of multiple runs of the ECMWF. Each run forecasts a slightly different track and a slightly different 10-day point.

[artist]

Could one of you explain this ensemble? It shows multiple lows in the SW Atlantic. I don't understand that and the other models showing a specific storm.

An ensemble run of a particular model is when the same model is run multiple times with slightly different starting parameters. Changing the smallest initialization data can have a quite significant impact on where "Fiona" is forecast to track 10 days out in the future. That image which was posted shows the multiple lows because it's a composite image of multiple runs of the ECMWF. Each run forecasts a slightly different track and a slightly different 10-day point.

wxman57, thanks for coming around. I know you are probably pretty busy about now. What do you think this storm and Earl will do?

[jlauderdal]

me too because my rule of thumb is you want to be in the bullseye beyond 72H and when south florida isnt in the bullseye i pay extra attention, we know track error is large over time and right now we are in that cone of large error but of course everybody is, long story short, i would prefer to have fiona hitting miami on these model runs this far out

Good, interesting post...I remember back in the days when Katrina and Ivan both were forecast in the longterm to land in the Big Bend of FL and coming into my area of GA. Of course, the tracks trended westward and we know where these two made landfall.

there are so many over the last ten years i lost count so now i just go with my rule of thumb and I will be sure to let everyone know when my thumb gets cut off and we get nailed on a long range verification

[wxman57]

wxman57, thanks for coming around. I know you are probably pretty busy about now. What do you think this storm and Earl will do?

Earl should clip the NE Caribbean, maybe 30-40 mph sustained wind across the northernmost islands (like the BVI) with higher gusts. Then it turns northerly and may come close to Bermuda or pass west of Bermuda. East U.S. hit unlikely.

Fiona? Well, it has to develop first. From the current satellite loop, I think the NHC may upgrade it at any time to TD 8. Path may be quite similar to Earl's, passing very near (or over) the islands of the NE Caribbean. Beyond then, I'm pretty sure it won't hit me in Houston. Could well be an East U.S. Coast threat next Sun-Tue. More likely, it'll recurve east of the U.S. But that's just going with climo and statistics. No way to tell for sure where the ridge axis will be that far out. Ask me again in another 7 days.

[artist]

wxman57, thanks for coming around. I know you are probably pretty busy about now. What do you think this storm and Earl will do?

Earl should clip the NE Caribbean, maybe 30-40 mph sustained wind across the northernmost islands (like the BVI) with higher gusts. Then it turns northerly and may come close to Bermuda or pass west of Bermuda. East U.S. hit unlikely.

Fiona? Well, it has to develop first. From the current satellite loop, I think the NHC may upgrade it at any time to TD 8. Path may be quite similar to Earl's, passing very near (or over) the islands of the NE Caribbean. Beyond then, I'm pretty sure it won't hit me in Houston. Could well be an East U.S. Coast threat next Sun-Tue. More likely, it'll recurve east of the U.S. But that's just going with climo and statistics. No way to tell for sure where the ridge axis will be that far out. Ask me again in another 7 days.

thanks wxman57. Hopefully you will have time to drop in every once in awhile until these 2 are out of harms way for everyone.

[M_0331]

Yea,
I remember being in Wilmington, NC when Hugo was ~24 hours away coming toward us ; It made a slight shift and hit SC. We were about to shut plant down & 3 days later I was on a Huey going to Charleston to help with that plant. MY parents were pretty shocked when the Huey sit down behind the barn near Georgetown & I had 20 gallons of gas for their two generators. At this time with 97L just watch & wait. I remember Francis Marion forest look like it had been hit by artillery fire.

[CrazyC83]

Yea,
I remember being in Wilmington, NC when Hugo was ~24 hours away coming toward us ; It made a slight shift and suprised SC. We were about to shut plant down & 3 days later I was on a Huey going to Charleston to help with that plant. MY parents were pretty shocked when the Huey sit down behind the barn near Georgetown & I had 20 gallons of gas for their two generators. At this time with 97L just watch & wait. I remember Francis Marion forest look like it had hit by artillery fire.

Wasn't Hugo supposed to go to Savannah? I thought you ended up closer to the storm than expected...

[M_0331]

NO

[GCANE]

Pretty much all Euro ensemble members are clustered east of St Croix for genesis.

NCEP Emsemble spaghetti shows a tight track to that point.

Interesting to see how aggressive CMC is.

[Blown Away]

European doesn't like Charleston:
http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... _loop.html

Even my area may feel some nasty direct effects if that verifies, huge system!

Is it safe to say on this EURO run 97L is trapped under a building ridge!

[cycloneye]

00z Tropical Models

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 290137
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0137 UTC SUN AUG 29 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL972010) 20100829 0000 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100829  0000   100829  1200   100830  0000   100830  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    14.3N  32.4W   15.3N  36.2W   16.2N  40.7W   16.9N  45.4W
BAMD    14.3N  32.4W   14.9N  35.7W   15.6N  39.1W   16.5N  42.8W
BAMM    14.3N  32.4W   15.0N  36.3W   15.6N  40.6W   16.0N  45.1W
LBAR    14.3N  32.4W   14.9N  36.1W   15.5N  40.1W   16.1N  44.3W
SHIP        30KTS          37KTS          46KTS          55KTS
DSHP        30KTS          37KTS          46KTS          55KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100831  0000   100901  0000   100902  0000   100903  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    17.6N  50.2W   21.5N  59.3W   29.6N  67.2W   36.1N  72.7W
BAMD    17.7N  46.6W   20.4N  53.6W   23.0N  59.1W   23.5N  61.6W
BAMM    16.7N  49.7W   19.5N  58.1W   26.6N  64.1W   34.1N  66.0W
LBAR    16.9N  48.5W   17.8N  56.9W     .0N    .0W     .0N    .0W
SHIP        62KTS          72KTS          74KTS          66KTS
DSHP        62KTS          72KTS          74KTS          66KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  14.3N LONCUR =  32.4W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR =  20KT
LATM12 =  13.3N LONM12 =  28.5W DIRM12 = 287DEG SPDM12 =  17KT
LATM24 =  12.4N LONM24 =  25.4W
WNDCUR =   30KT RMAXWD =   60NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD =  225NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 


[Ivanhater]

Bams starting to notice the ridge it seems

[jaxfladude]

European doesn't like Charleston:
http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... _loop.html

Even my area may feel some nasty direct effects if that verifies, huge system!

Is it safe to say on this EURO run 97L is trapped under a building ridge!

IMHO it may be, but who knows this early.

[Vortex]

Can someone answer this question for me..I've noticed the Bams seem to have an extension beyond 5 days..In this case you see hard sw motion..Where is the extended portion to give those plots? thx

[Blown Away]

Frustrating looking at the model spread seeing almost a unanimous recurve and the EURO driving this storm near the NE Caribbean and EC?