ATL: EARL - Models

[AdamFirst]

GFS 96HR

[KWT]

GFS starting to undertake a Fujiwara set-up with Fiona, or whatver the GFS does with Fiona...

Anyway heading NW out to 96hrs.

[AdamFirst]

GFS 126HR

[Riptide]

This is quite the solution. Coastal areas are affected for the first time.
150 hours

[AdamFirst]

GFS 132HR


144HR

[KWT]

GFS suggests a close but not quite situation once again and also once again absorbs 97L into its circulation...which I think I've already voiced doubts about..

At least with this run Earl is quicker which makes sense, I was thinking it was too slow before on its 12z.

Close enough to the Outer Banks for gusty conditions on the 18z GFS.

[Aric Dunn]

The GFS has had some problems the past few runs with many aspects and it rather unreliable at the moment Im hoping the 00z data ingestion will help weed it out.

[Aric Dunn]

I actually hate to say it but we will likely see a west shift for the 00z more in line with something similar to the NAM .. lol it is the only model that keep the eastern US ridge in a more realistic way. the other models erode it very fast in a ZONAL flow synoptic setup which is not typical for that type of setup.

[xironman]

00z more in line with something similar to the NAM

Never thought you would hang your hat on that model, eh? Actually the NAM is fine for mid-latitude NH weather inside 72hrs.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Aric, what are you thoughts on how Earl will affect 97l, if it does at all. Sure don't see it absorbing it ie gfs runs. Just curious if you feel that it could come further west as every model run has Earl coming further west.

[Aric Dunn]

00z more in line with something similar to the NAM

Never thought you would hang your hat on that model, eh? Actually the NAM is fine for mid-latitude NH weather inside 72hrs.

hah thats why i said "like" the NAM .. it was mostly a statement that the other models are weakening the ridge very quickly in a pattern that suggest the opposite. the nam which is not a tropical model at all but is used for large scale synoptics for north America probably has a better handle on the strength of ridge ...

[Aric Dunn]

Aric, what are you thoughts on how Earl will affect 97l, if it does at all. Sure don't see it absorbing it ie gfs runs. Just curious if you feel that it could come further west as every model run has Earl coming further west.

yeah the absorbing this is very very unlikely the distance between them is plenty far enough and both circulations are very large. yeah the euro seems to handle it quite well so far. the GFS is having some issues it seems its been doing pretty poorly so far with these systems..

[MGC]

Getting mighty close to the outerbanks....we will know more when the Gulfstream data is fed into the models...MGC

[cheezyWXguy]

The models are starting to get me a little concerned about earl and his threat the mid-atlantic. A very good friend of mine is at college in maryland right now, and I wonder how prepared they really are if a storm of earl's potential strength were to affect them. I know its only a chance something would even come close to that area, and nothing is ever set in stone when it comes to the weather, but this westward trend is starting to bother me.

[ConvergenceZone]

If the GFS happens to shift just a little bit more to the west and if the strength of Earl is close to being accurate, then that would be an absolute disaster for the east coast. A strong hurricane moving right up the east coast would not be good.

I know it's only one run, but I think we have to face it that the westward trend is concerning...

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

GFS 132HR


144HR

If, in two more days, the NHC project a long range track ANYTHING LIKE the above GFS model run. Then the Cable News Stations will go into ultra hype mode.

[Ivanhater]

GFDL continues to shift west, now brushing PR

[ROCK]

GFDL continues to shift west, now brushing PR

that is a sharp recurve and I highly doubt that would be pulled off. The GFDL has always been right biased in the long range.....

[cycloneye]

00z Tropical Models

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 290035
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0035 UTC SUN AUG 29 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
TROPICAL CYCLONE EARL (AL072010) 20100829 0000 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100829  0000   100829  1200   100830  0000   100830  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    16.5N  54.6W   17.4N  57.3W   18.8N  59.4W   20.4N  61.9W
BAMD    16.5N  54.6W   17.1N  57.1W   17.8N  59.3W   18.7N  61.1W
BAMM    16.5N  54.6W   17.5N  57.1W   18.6N  59.4W   20.0N  61.7W
LBAR    16.5N  54.6W   17.5N  57.7W   18.8N  60.5W   19.8N  62.7W
SHIP        55KTS          61KTS          68KTS          79KTS
DSHP        55KTS          61KTS          68KTS          79KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100831  0000   100901  0000   100902  0000   100903  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    21.8N  64.7W   22.4N  70.9W   23.1N  71.9W   29.6N  68.8W
BAMD    19.9N  62.7W   23.7N  66.4W   29.6N  71.0W   35.0N  73.8W
BAMM    21.4N  63.8W   24.0N  68.7W   26.8N  72.5W   31.9N  72.2W
LBAR    21.0N  64.4W   24.3N  67.1W   30.0N  70.2W   33.1N  72.8W
SHIP        85KTS          97KTS         106KTS         107KTS
DSHP        85KTS          97KTS         106KTS         107KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  16.5N LONCUR =  54.6W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR =  18KT
LATM12 =  15.9N LONM12 =  51.0W DIRM12 = 278DEG SPDM12 =  20KT
LATM24 =  15.8N LONM24 =  47.2W
WNDCUR =   55KT RMAXWD =   25NM WNDM12 =   50KT
CENPRS =  989MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD =  225NM SDEPTH =   D
RD34NE =  140NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =  90NM


[cycloneye]

Ivan, at what intensity GFDL has it when it brushes PR?