ATL: Ex Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion

[TheDreamTraveler]

I think that at the altitude the planes are flying the pressure extrapolations are not too accurate. A dropsonde should provide a great reading, though.

Yeah I agree, unlress thats a Dropsonde report of 983mbs I'd not pay any real attention to the estimated pressure from the height that is being flown at, could easily be well out...

What does look to be true is its gfetting better organised and I think an upgrade is quite possible in the next 12-18hrs.

It really is getting better organized.

[sevenleft]

The NOAA aircraft is flying just a little bit higher than an Air Force hunter would be, 660mb as opposed to 700mb. Those aren't necessarily perfect extrapolations, but usually accurate to within a few millibar.

[KWT]

Well if it is really at 983mbs then the background pressure must be very low at the moment, maybe like what we saw with Alex in terms of pressure-wind relationship.

[supercane]

Latest microwave image:

[ColinDelia]

Heading into the highest ocean heat content along its path

[KWT]

Still looks flattened on the northern side at the moment, suggests that while strengthening is almost certainly occuring I'm doubtful its rapid over the next 12hrs until it gains a more circular look...once that happens everything is in place for this to become a real noteable hurricane for sure...

[Gustywind]

Orange alert have been required by Meteo-France Guadeloupe for the Nothern Leewards. Whereas, given always Meteo-France, Guadeloupe could also be under an Orange code due to the incertitudes of Earl's path.
We should continue to follow closely Earl and pay attention to dangerous TS Earl during the next 24H. Stay tuned.

[KWT]

Recon is finding surprisingly high winds quite a way out from the system and whilst the conversion rate will be a little different to the slightly higher flight level they are still suggestive of quite a wide region of TS winds on at least the northern side.

[CrazyC83]

That is quite low for an intensity of 55 kt (which is what Recon supports right now). Just like I doubt Danielle's pressure is 970mb (that is the standard Dvorak, I estimate it to be in the 950s).

[KWT]

Yeah I was real surprised that recon found it to be at 983mbs, even if its a little off its safe to assume the pressure is somewhere in the region of 985mbs, which is pretty impressive for a 55kts TS...Once it sorts out that flattened northwards section no reason why this one won't strengthening pretty rapidly, can't rule out RI tomorrow IMO.

[Migle]

Really coming together tonight as the split appearance showed earlier today is gone.

[Cryomaniac]

Latest microwave image:

Looking pretty good now.

[cycloneye]

This is a panoramic view of the trio in the Atlantic. By far Earl is now the game in town, maybe 97L/TD8/Fiona later steals the show.

[chrisjslucia]

Recon is finding surprisingly high winds quite a way out from the system and whilst the conversion rate will be a little different to the slightly higher flight level they are still suggestive of quite a wide region of TS winds on at least the northern side.

I would guess this is right as St Lucia has had the same flat, hot conditions reported further North, all today but in the past hour the wind has started to pick up and we are well below the main area of concern tho no one here rules anything out after Ivan's dive south six years ago. I imagine, this is is now the case further North in the Leewards. So, we all here are hoping KWT is still going to have the winning lottery ticket: RECURVE 2010 (KWT - This is the last humorous (attempted anyway) reference I will make to you and the R word!!)

[hurricanedude]

well, i rarely poke my head out, and post but I live in Va Beach and things may get tense around town real soon!

[Hurrilurker]

The split convection areas are consolidating with cold cloud tops and also notice the outflow starting to puff out on the north side now, which has been repressed.

[HurricaneRobert]

What are the chances for a Long Island Express scenario to happen?

[x-y-no]

What are the chances for a Long Island Express scenario to happen?

Earl would have to go north pretty fast for that to happen, since the trough when it comes will quickly kick him offshore.

[Hurricaneman]

What are the chances for a Long Island Express scenario to happen?

id give it a 15% chance and if that did happen in any way, you wouldnt see me for a while, but I stll think a last minute curve away is the most likely solution

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[AdamFirst]

Up to 65 MPH this advisory and it's only getting stronger