ATL: Ex Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion

[ColinDelia]

Looking a lot better the past few hours.

[Danny MD]

http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/news/s ... -carib.asp

[jinftl]

It won't be long before hurricane watches (perhaps a hurricane watch and tropical storm warning for the current islands under tropical storm watches) need to be considered, esp. with the accelerated speed earl has moved with today. We are getting close to 36 hours or so to closest approach to the islands.

[Gustywind]

Here is a few webcam of the BVI:
http://www.nannycay.com/webcams/
http://leverickbay.org/webcam.htm

Anguilla webcam:
http://www.mycaribbean.com/panos/webcam_bg.html

[cycloneye]

From 5 PM Advisory,more watches and warnings for more islands

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND ANGUILLA
* ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAINT MARTIN AND SAINT BARTHELEMY
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND FOR THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES

[Brent]

[ConvergenceZone]

Puerto Rico seems appears to be inching slowly into the cone compared to earlier this morning....

[Typhoon_Willie]

Looks like convection is getting back over the center of Earl again.

[Aric Dunn]

The data from the p-3 is going to be very important in the 00z models.. it will provide a precise analysis of the strength of the ridge to the north which is likely slightly stronger than what the models have previously been initialized at. this seems likely due to its fast pace and continuously being left of the guidance. each run calls for a wnw turn nearly right away and still has not happened. so the NE islands will likely take a hit. and the models may shift even farther west.

[Migle]

I am not really sure why there isn't Hurricane Watches up right now. Maybe they will at 8 or 11

[Gustywind]

000
WTNT32 KNHC 282041
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EARL ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
500 PM AST SAT AUG 28 2010

...EARL HEADING TOWARD THE LEEWARD ISLANDS IN A HURRY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.5N 54.2W
ABOUT 600 MI...965 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[AdamFirst]

Wouldn't be surprised if those tropical storm watches for the virgin islands turned into hurricane warnings...its almost right on top of them in about a day and a half according to that track

[TheDreamTraveler]

Puerto Rico seems appears to be inching slowly into the cone compared to earlier this morning....

Nah, they're already 90% in the cone.

[Squarethecircle]

Strong convection now; covering the center

[KWT]

The data from the p-3 is going to be very important in the 00z models.. it will provide a precise analysis of the strength of the ridge to the north which is likely slightly stronger than what the models have previously been initialized at. this seems likely due to its fast pace and continuously being left of the guidance. each run calls for a wnw turn nearly right away and still has not happened. so the NE islands will likely take a hit. and the models may shift even farther west.

Yeah I was thinking that, the fact the lower level flow is pretty rapid at the moment suggests the subtropical high is pretty strong, though its getting close to the point now where it will reach the weakness and slow down...

NE Caribbean looks like they are going to get a direct hit looking at the NHC track which at this point shouldn't be to ofar out...

Also suspect we will have to deal with a hurricane tomorrow...

[Danny MD]

Is it time to start taking earl as a serious threat to the OBX and then north to the midatlantic states? The models continue to be trending west.

Or is Fiona the one out here in Maryland we should be more worried about?

[Aric Dunn]

The data from the p-3 is going to be very important in the 00z models.. it will provide a precise analysis of the strength of the ridge to the north which is likely slightly stronger than what the models have previously been initialized at. this seems likely due to its fast pace and continuously being left of the guidance. each run calls for a wnw turn nearly right away and still has not happened. so the NE islands will likely take a hit. and the models may shift even farther west.

Yeah I was thinking that, the fact the lower level flow is pretty rapid at the moment suggests the subtropical high is pretty strong, though its getting close to the point now where it will reach the weakness and slow down...

NE Caribbean looks like they are going to get a direct hit looking at the NHC track which at this point shouldn't be to ofar out...

Also suspect we will have to deal with a hurricane tomorrow...

well the suspected weakness may have filled in somewhat as danielle has moved out faster than thought ...so will see what happens in the 00z runs

[blp]

2PM vs 5PM we have a West shift in the 5 Day. No surprise here since guidance has been moving west. It gets a lot closer to the islands and at the end moves a few degrees to the West.

2PM


5PM

[cycloneye]

For the Caribbean folks,select island where you are to see how close the center of Earl will pass as of the 5 PM advisory. In my case 116 miles from San Juan.

http://stormcarib.com/closest2.htm

[jinftl]

Agree...


the 36 hour forecast position of 18.3N 61.8W is very close to the extreme n.e. islands:

Results for Barbuda (17.63N, 61.78W):
The eye of the storm is about 46 miles (74 km) away.

Results for Anguilla (18.2N, 63.08W):
The eye of the storm is about 84 miles (136 km) away

Results for St.Maarten/St.Martin (18.05N, 63.12W):
The eye of the storm is about 88 miles (142 km) away.

I am not really sure why there isn't Hurricane Watches up right now. Maybe they will at 8 or 11