ATL: EARL - Models

[sandyb]

does anyone think that us in NC need to worry? looks like its gonna stay away from the coast

[vacanechaser]

does anyone think that us in NC need to worry? looks like its gonna stay away from the coast

a little early to know just yet, but the models are trending west with earl... i am starting to think that the obx will be grazed, even if it is just east of hatteras by a few miles... i am not sold on it missing altogether just yet... once the recon missions take place and we get some solid data, it will be ingested into the models and then i think we will see what happens from there... watch it closely however

will be getting my truck ready to head down if need be and mark and i are talking pre-planning things...


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[KWT]

12z HWRF shows this one getting very close to the NE Caribbean still, almost hurricane winds in fact!

Gets the system to about 72-73W then starts to move Earl to the north probably staying enough offshore not to be a real threat but obviously any westward movement by the HWRF further will make a difference.

[KWT]

12z ECM bombs Earl between 48-72hrs, down to 955mbs at 72hrs...

Also well east of the GFS, around where the 12z GFS ensembles member progs...

[Ivanhater]

Euro coming out quicker now and higher resolution

96 hours

[KWT]

Actually the ECM is even deeper then 955mbs, looks like that was the 00z run I was looking at, gets it down to something in the 930mbs!!!

Mental run for strength!

[Ivanhater]

120 hours

[Evil Jeremy]

12z GFDL is more south and west on days 1-3, pretty much the same on day 4, and more east on day 5, as compared to the 06z run.

[KWT]

The 12z ECM looks a bit to the west compared to yesterdays 12z run by a good 3-4 degrees or so.

IMO looks way too quick to deepen this system, its presentation has to change very rapidly if its going to bomb out like the ECM wants it to...but then again the ECM does agree with the GFDL/HWRF that this could bomb out near the Islands...

[KWT]

ECM still down to 932mbs near 40N...

Looks too strong IMO, though the ECM has got the best resolution of the non-hurricane models I think its going over the top a little to be honest. That being said can't be denied the models are seeing a very favourable pattern forming by 48hrs...as quite a few of the models are strong by that time..that shear needs to ease off though first.

[Brent]

Wow

[cycloneye]

18z Tropical Models

Code: Select all

505
WHXX01 KWBC 281835
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1835 UTC SAT AUG 28 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
TROPICAL CYCLONE EARL (AL072010) 20100828 1800 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100828  1800   100829  0600   100829  1800   100830  0600
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    16.2N  53.3W   16.9N  55.9W   18.0N  58.2W   19.4N  60.3W
BAMD    16.2N  53.3W   16.5N  56.1W   17.0N  58.3W   17.6N  60.2W
BAMM    16.2N  53.3W   16.7N  56.1W   17.4N  58.4W   18.4N  60.4W
LBAR    16.2N  53.3W   16.8N  56.7W   17.7N  60.0W   18.6N  62.9W
SHIP        50KTS          54KTS          61KTS          74KTS
DSHP        50KTS          54KTS          61KTS          74KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100830  1800   100831  1800   100901  1800   100902  1800
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    21.3N  62.7W   23.8N  68.8W   24.4N  73.6W   27.5N  71.9W
BAMD    18.5N  61.8W   21.4N  64.7W   26.8N  68.7W   33.1N  71.3W
BAMM    19.9N  62.2W   23.2N  66.5W   27.0N  71.3W   31.0N  73.4W
LBAR    19.6N  65.2W   22.1N  68.4W   26.9N  71.6W   32.0N  73.5W
SHIP        85KTS          96KTS         104KTS         104KTS
DSHP        85KTS          96KTS         104KTS         104KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  16.2N LONCUR =  53.3W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR =  21KT
LATM12 =  15.8N LONM12 =  49.2W DIRM12 = 271DEG SPDM12 =  18KT
LATM24 =  15.7N LONM24 =  45.1W
WNDCUR =   50KT RMAXWD =   25NM WNDM12 =   50KT
CENPRS =  999MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD =  200NM SDEPTH =   D
RD34NE =   75NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =  50NM


[Migle]

Another EURO along the east coast. Starting to see a big trend now.

[KWT]

Getting into better agreement that it slips through between Bermuda and the E.coast, with the ECM on the eastern side and the GFS operational on the western side.

Also coming into agreement of a possibly very favourable pattern for strengthening in 48-72hrs time...so a major looking increasingly likely.

[TheDreamTraveler]

does anyone think that us in NC need to worry? looks like its gonna stay away from the coast

It may not hit directly, but you'll still feel some things from Earl if it's off the coast. What matters is the size of the hurricane and the size of its wind field in relation to its distance from the East Coast. Though this is mainly if you live right at the coast. Unless Earl tries to come closer to land.

[CrazyC83]

Could this be 1938 all over again?

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Could this be 1938 all over again?

Let us hope not

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Wow

932 mb around 40 North, for a warm core summer time system, now that is insane.

[superfly]

Gulf Stream

[KWT]

Not only the Gulf stream, there almost certainly would have to be some extra-tropical forces involved as well there...

I think its safe to assume though 932mbs is probably over agressive...