ATL: FIONA - Models

[sunnyday]

I'm confused. Granted that "Fiona" has not even formed yet, yesterday some said it was possible that it could be a major problem for Fl or the E coast. I even read that it could be a "1 in 100" storm! Now, someone says that it probably won't even develop. Even 10 days out, is such a change possible so quickly? I would love some good predictions that are somewhat steady from one day to the next. Can anyone explain this? Thanks so much.

[Scorpion]

Nobody said Fiona wasn't gonna form, every model is forming it, the GFS is just mysteriously absorbing it into Earl.

[ROCK]

I'm confused. Granted that "Fiona" has not even formed yet, yesterday some said it was possible that it could be a major problem for Fl or the E coast. I even read that it could be a "1 in 100" storm! Now, someone says that it probably won't even develop. Even 10 days out, is such a change possible so quickly? I would love some good predictions that are somewhat steady from one day to the next. Can anyone explain this? Thanks so much.

your asking the impossible....we watch the guidance and see what it is saying. We make comments based on said guidance.....we do not carry crystal balls....

take that back I do use the Magic Eight Ball where you shake it and it gives you answers....has worked so far this year....

[ConvergenceZone]

I don't even think we have to worry about Fiona now. The models seem to slowly be backing off of Fiona developing.....Earl seems to be it at the moment....

What on earth are you talking about?

What I'm talking about is a few days ago, most of the models were showing Fiona as a fairly decent developed hurricane.... but if you can point me to all of the current model maps that currently show a well developed Fiona, then I'll agree with you....
It just seems like the trend overall is weakening Fiona compared to what Fiona looked like a few days ago...

[KWT]

To be fair CZ most of the models are still developing this into a decent system, its really only the GFS that isn't doing an awful lot with it which probably explains why the GFS treats Fiona almost like a secondary depression to Earl rather then a system in its own right.

[Scorpion]

I don't even think we have to worry about Fiona now. The models seem to slowly be backing off of Fiona developing.....Earl seems to be it at the moment....

What on earth are you talking about?

What I'm talking about is a few days ago, most of the models were showing Fiona as a fairly decent developed hurricane.... but if you can point me to all of the current model maps that currently show a well developed Fiona, then I'll agree with you....
It just seems like the trend overall is weakening Fiona compared to what Fiona looked like a few days ago...

Huh?? Every model still shows Fiona becoming a strong hurricane....

[ConvergenceZone]

Huh?? Every model still shows Fiona becoming a strong hurricane....

Really? I saw the models this morning which all showed an amazing intense bombing hurricane, but it looked like Earl to me....

[ConvergenceZone]

To be fair CZ most of the models are still developing this into a decent system, its really only the GFS that isn't doing an awful lot with it which probably explains why the GFS treats Fiona almost like a secondary depression to Earl rather then a system in its own right.

Well, perhaps I thought that was Earl then. When I looked at a couple of model maps this morning, I thought was Earl which was close to the NC coastline, and I didn't see any hurricanes behind it. So I guess that was Fiona which was getting close to NC afterall and not Earl, my bad then...

[KWT]

FWIW CZ the HWRF shows a very weak system throughout, only gets to 40kts!

Anyway to be honest alot of the models didn't do much with Earl till it got going so I wouldn't really read much into the models at this stage but we will see, may well stay weak like Earl has for a while...

[ConvergenceZone]

FWIW CZ the HWRF shows a very weak system throughout, only gets to 40kts!

Anyway to be honest alot of the models didn't do much with Earl till it got going so I wouldn't really read much into the models at this stage but we will see, may well stay weak like Earl has for a while...

Yea, again, i was obviously looking at the wrong storm. I honestly thought that was Earl was Bombing off the coast of North Carolina in a few days..
Wow, that's crazy to think that it was Fiona that I was looking at afterall....That is indeed scary!!!

[shah8]

hwrf for earl pretty much demostrates why gfs is really out to lunch. After about 30 hours, 97l just completely *races* Earl so by 60 hours, it is captured.

Just...no way.

[shah8]

CZ, Earl bombs off the NC coast in a few days in most models. Non-gfs, Fiona goes mental in about 10 days and sorta still heading west just off the NC/VA border area.

[shah8]

Hwrf 97l modeling doesn't seem to be totally crazy in the 12z. If 97l stays weak, then it has a good chance of verifying. I think this one will have no trouble intensifying, certainly less than Earl.

[KWT]

Hmmm I'm not so sure, there isn't much different for this one as ther eas for Earl in terms of the set-up for it.

I'm willing to bet the HWRF idea of a slow developer is the most likely option like we are seeing with Earl.

[KWT]

12z ECM at 120hrs shows 97L coming very close to the NE Islands at 988mbs with Earl very rapidly withdrawing to the north.

Very different looking run to the GFS, think the truth will be something in the middle...

[Ivanhater]

96 hours

[Ivanhater]

120 hours

[KWT]

Looks like another close shave for the Islands on this run though the strength of Earl on this run may make the tug just a little too strong for Fiona to not follow...

[Ivanhater]

Through 144 hours..Fiona is farther south than this time yesterday's run and trough lifting out

12z today



12z Yesterday

[KWT]

Howver the troughing is quite a bit stronger on the 12z run today Ivanhater so its going to be tight...I'd bet Fiona is lifted out if that solution came off...then again I'm not convinced Earl gets as strong as the ECM is trying to get it...but we will see!