ATL: Ex-Tropical Storm FIONA - Discussion

[KWT]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm1.html

for now its westward in the low level flow....

You can see the weakness to the north of 97L though that is lifting this one up a little at the moment and putting 97L on a brief WNW heading.

Should start to bend back to the west, probably near due west and if some of the models are right maybe even slightly shade off a few degrees like Earl has done.

[cycloneye]

SAB Dvorak:

28/1745 UTC 13.6N 30.0W T1.5/1.5 97L -- Atlantic

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track

AL, 97, 2010082818, , BEST, 0, 137N, 302W, 25, 1008, LO

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest

[wxman57]

Time for another climo check. I ran a check of all past August/September storms passing within about 1 degree of 97L's current location. I counted 42 storms. Of those 42, only 2 entered the Caribbean, but they were BIG ones - the great 1928 Okeechobee hurricane (was a Cat 5 in PR) and the 1915 Galveston hurricane (Cat 4). That's about 4.7% of all storms near 97L reached the Caribbean, 95.3% missed the islands.

As for the East U.S. Coast, 4 of the 42 reached the U.S., and all 4 were pretty significant storms. That's about 9.6% hit, or about 90% recurved east of the U.S. Not very good odds either way. It is fairly far north already.

From its current location, it only takes a heading of 278 degrees to miss the Caribbean. That's not much north of due west, particularly with a negative NAO.

[Cleveland Kent Evans]

Time for another climo check. I ran a check of all past August/September storms passing within about 1 degree of 97L's current location. I counted 42 storms. Of those 42, only 2 entered the Caribbean, but they were BIG ones - the great 1928 Okeechobee hurricane (was a Cat 5 in PR) and the 1915 Galveston hurricane (Cat 4). That's about 4.7% of all storms near 97L reached the Caribbean, 95.3% missed the islands.

As for the East U.S. Coast, 4 of the 42 reached the U.S., and all 4 were pretty significant storms. That's about 9.6% hit, or about 90% recurved east of the U.S. Not very good odds either way. It is fairly far north already.

From its current location, it only takes a heading of 278 degrees to miss the Caribbean. That's not much north of due west, particularly with a negative NAO.

This is really interesting, but I just wonder if it's fair to use the present location of an invest and compare that to all storms passing near the PRESENT location. Shouldn't you at least wait to use whatever the location of this is when it does officially become a tropical storm to do such an analysis?

[ConvergenceZone]

Time for another climo check. I ran a check of all past August/September storms passing within about 1 degree of 97L's current location. I counted 42 storms. Of those 42, only 2 entered the Caribbean, but they were BIG ones - the great 1928 Okeechobee hurricane (was a Cat 5 in PR) and the 1915 Galveston hurricane (Cat 4). That's about 4.7% of all storms near 97L reached the Caribbean, 95.3% missed the islands.

As for the East U.S. Coast, 4 of the 42 reached the U.S., and all 4 were pretty significant storms. That's about 9.6% hit, or about 90% recurved east of the U.S. Not very good odds either way. It is fairly far north already.

From its current location, it only takes a heading of 278 degrees to miss the Caribbean. That's not much north of due west, particularly with a negative NAO.

This is really interesting, but I just wonder if it's fair to use the present location of an invest and compare that to all storms passing near the PRESENT location. Shouldn't you at least wait to use whatever the location of this is when it does officially become a tropical storm to do such an analysis?

That's a good point he makes WXMAN. What is this invest doesn't really develop until it's much closer to the islands? Perhaps it justs exists as a wave until that time?

[wxman57]

Valid points, plus, more data on storms past 30W. I assumed mid guidance at 15.5N/48W for about 2 days for now and plotted all Aug/Sep storms passing within 65nm. Got a lot more "hits" in the Caribbean and U.S.

But note that if I'm off only 1/2 degree (30 miles) too far south, then that eliminates all but one hurricane hit in the NE Caribbean. That is, 16N/48W as the starting point is far enough north to eliminate almost all Caribbean hits. But still 9 U.S. hits.

Play around for yourself. Use the Latitude/Longitude search:
http://csc-s-maps-q.csc.noaa.gov/hurricanes/viewer.html

[ROCK]

Time for another climo check. I ran a check of all past August/September storms passing within about 1 degree of 97L's current location. I counted 42 storms. Of those 42, only 2 entered the Caribbean, but they were BIG ones - the great 1928 Okeechobee hurricane (was a Cat 5 in PR) and the 1915 Galveston hurricane (Cat 4). That's about 4.7% of all storms near 97L reached the Caribbean, 95.3% missed the islands.

As for the East U.S. Coast, 4 of the 42 reached the U.S., and all 4 were pretty significant storms. That's about 9.6% hit, or about 90% recurved east of the U.S. Not very good odds either way. It is fairly far north already.

From its current location, it only takes a heading of 278 degrees to miss the Caribbean. That's not much north of due west, particularly with a negative NAO.

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/paststorms.gif

guess we can throw out all of the models showing a island issue and or US threat currently.....

come on....first this has not formed, second by tomorrow you will have a whole lot of different tracks......

[LowndesCoFire]

Time for another climo check. I ran a check of all past August/September storms passing within about 1 degree of 97L's current location. I counted 42 storms. Of those 42, only 2 entered the Caribbean, but they were BIG ones - the great 1928 Okeechobee hurricane (was a Cat 5 in PR) and the 1915 Galveston hurricane (Cat 4). That's about 4.7% of all storms near 97L reached the Caribbean, 95.3% missed the islands.

As for the East U.S. Coast, 4 of the 42 reached the U.S., and all 4 were pretty significant storms. That's about 9.6% hit, or about 90% recurved east of the U.S. Not very good odds either way. It is fairly far north already.

From its current location, it only takes a heading of 278 degrees to miss the Caribbean. That's not much north of due west, particularly with a negative NAO.

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/paststorms.gif

guess we can throw out all of the models showing a island issue and or US threat currently.....

come on....first this has not formed, second by tomorrow you will have a whole lot of different tracks......

Ok good, letting guard down now in Georgia!

[supercane]

Latest microwave:

[KWT]

GFS still doesn't want to develop this at all, some of the models are going to look very foolish once all is said and done...

Anyway track IMO probably will be fairly close to due west from now on as its passed the upper weakness to the north at a fairly brisk pace which I suspect will be a limiting factor.

I suspect 97L does develop but probably struggles to get much beyond what Earl did until say 55-60W...much after that depends on the track and forward speed of Earl...if Earl really drags its heels and 97L races westwards then Earl may well shear this littl'un to death until it gets out of the way...though I'm just not able to buy the GFS fujiwara dance it tries to produce.

[Dean4Storms]

Using Climo is about like following the CLPR model, there can always be exceptions to the rule. The overall weather patterns seem to change a bit in time, the late 1800's saw many Tropical Cyclones impacting NE FL and SE GA but this past century was very few.

[cycloneye]

IMO at 8 PM TWO they will raise to 90%.

[hurricanedude]

or 100% with a depression forming or may develop at any time

[cycloneye]

TD later tonight or Sunday

ABNT20 KNHC 282350
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT AUG 28 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
DANIELLE...LOCATED ABOUT 330 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA...AND
ON TROPICAL STORM EARL...LOCATED ABOUT 570 MILES EAST OF THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...ASSOCIATED WITH A VIGOROUS TROPICAL
WAVE...IS LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE RECENTLY INCREASED NEAR THE
CENTER...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM LATER TONIGHT OR SUNDAY. THERE
IS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD TO WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 20 MPH.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK NON-TROPICAL LOW
PRESSURE AREA OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO REMAIN DISORGANIZED.
THE LOW IS DRIFTING NORTHWARD AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND OVER
SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY. ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT IS UNLIKELY...AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[wxman57]

Time for another climo check. I ran a check of all past August/September storms passing within about 1 degree of 97L's current location. I counted 42 storms. Of those 42, only 2 entered the Caribbean, but they were BIG ones - the great 1928 Okeechobee hurricane (was a Cat 5 in PR) and the 1915 Galveston hurricane (Cat 4). That's about 4.7% of all storms near 97L reached the Caribbean, 95.3% missed the islands.

As for the East U.S. Coast, 4 of the 42 reached the U.S., and all 4 were pretty significant storms. That's about 9.6% hit, or about 90% recurved east of the U.S. Not very good odds either way. It is fairly far north already.

From its current location, it only takes a heading of 278 degrees to miss the Caribbean. That's not much north of due west, particularly with a negative NAO.

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/paststorms.gif

guess we can throw out all of the models showing a island issue and or US threat currently.....

come on....first this has not formed, second by tomorrow you will have a whole lot of different tracks......

Climatology isn't a forecast, it just tells us what has or hasn't happened in the past. It can identify what is a rare occurrence, like an east U.S. coast hit from a storm taking 97L's current path. Climatologically, I can say it's rare for Houston's temperature to hit 10F. But that doesn't mean it can't happen - it's just unlikely.

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track

AL, 97, 2010082900, , BEST, 0, 143N, 324W, 30, 1008, LO

Up to 30kts.

[CrazyC83]

Advisories at 11 pm? The wording in the TWO were quite strong...

[Vortex]

Luis, think theyll they upgrade at 11?

[cycloneye]

:uarrow: Luis, think theyll they upgrade at 11?

No renumber yet at atcf site.Lets see in the next half an hour.