ATL: EARL - Models

[vacanechaser]

just keeps shifting westward... obx maybe under the gun from earl.... jmo... things looking like a close brush with obx may miss just east like i was saying last night...




Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[gatorcane]

That run still misses the outerbanks though as the trough pushes it away. If the ECMWF and/or UKMET is not showing something similar, wouldn't worry that much at least not yet. The GFS is notorious for breaking down ridges too quickly.

[KWT]

The set-up aloft is highly favourable for a sharp recurve near 35N with the oncoming upper trough to the east, the key question is whether it can move fast enough to the NW before then to be a risk to maybe the outer Banks.

The interaction with Fiona is pretty unlikely though it has to be said even though Earl clearly will slow down at some point soon.

[Riptide]

That run still misses the outerbanks though as the trough pushes it away. If the ECMWF and/or UKMET is not showing something similar, wouldn't worry that much at least not yet. The GFS is notorious for breaking down ridges too quickly.

I love how Earl does a cyclonic loop off of OBX. Very reasonable.

[sunnyday]

Thank you, Gatorcame. Florida looks so vulnerable sticking out on 3 sides in the middle of the ocean, yet it is often passed up by the hurricanes (not always).

[ColinDelia]

Comparison of 6z and 12z

12z. 174 hours


6z. 180 hours

[srainhoutx]

I suspect the GFS will settle down over the next few days as data from the various missions are ingested. I do see that the GFS is moving toward a solution that is somewhat similar to other guidance. Regardless, the trending W does raise an eyebrow IMO.

[MGC]

The Gulfstream will be flying soon so that data should help the model resolution big time......MGC

[Brent]

[KWT]

In defense to Gatorcane the UKMO showed the exact same evolution to the GFS with Fiona racing westwards with Earl crawling WNW/NW and Fiona eventually becoming absorbed into Earl.

[ColinDelia]

GFS. 216 hours. South of Nova Scotia



228 hours

[KWT]

Looks like it take a slightly further west track of hurricane Bill from last year on the 12z run...close call but we will see whether it happens!

Wonder what the other models will show.

[ConvergenceZone]

although if the models get much further west, it's still going to be recurving, but instead of it recurving while it's out to sea, it may be recurving right up the east coast. That would not be good...

[shah8]

Remember Wilma? This gets over land or close to it, and rakes the ec, baroclinic energy will be involved too and the storm won't get as much weaker as something overland should.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

GFS. 216 hours. South of Nova Scotia



228 hours

Still looks mostly tropical while interacting with Nova Scotia. Hurricane Juan, which hit central Nova Scotia in 2003, had a similar pressure (972 mb) and was a cat 2 at landfall. Of course Juan was a much smaller storm, so this one looks strong cat. 1 maybe weak cat. 2 by comparison. It certainly will be interesting the next few days.....

[KWT]

CMC suggests a VERY close call for the east coast...probably even a smidge west of the GFS.

[srainhoutx]

Enlight of the GFS and CMC runs, I thought this was an interesting update this morning from the HPC:

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
942 AM EDT SAT AUG 28 2010

VALID 12Z WED SEP 01 2010 - 12Z SAT SEP 04 2010

AS WE ENTER SEPTEMBER... A DEAMPLIFICATION OF THE SHORT TERM UPPER
PATTERN IS WELL AGREED UPON BY THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE. HOWEVER... THE
DETAILS DIFFERENCES ARE QUITE DRASTIC AMONG THE OPERATIONAL MODELS
REGARDING THE INTERACTION OF NOW TROPICAL STORM EARL OFF THE EAST
COAST BY LATER IN THE WORK WEEK. PREDICTABILITY PER THE GEFS RMOP
/RELATIVE MEASURE OF PREDICTABILITY/ MAPS SHOW A DOWNWARD TREND
THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. THIS IS ECHOED IN THE ECMWF
NORMALIZED STANDARD DEVIATION MAPS AT 500MB AS WELL. TIMING OF THE
UPPER FEATURES WILL PLAY A CRITICAL ROLE IN THE ENTIRE CONUS FLOW
PATTERN... BUT THIS IS SOMETHING THAT MAY NOT BE WELL RESOLVED
MORE THAN A FEW DAYS OUT.

GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY... FELT A BEST APPROACH AGAIN TODAY IS BASED
ON THE RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GEFS AND ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MEANS. FOR TUE-THU/D3-5... THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF SHOW DECENT
AGREEMENT AND FIT WITHIN CONTINUITY. THE LARGEST DIFFERENCES WERE
CONFINED TO CANADA AS THE SFC LOW DEEPENS THROUGH HUDSON BAY. OFF
THE PAC NW COAST... THE ECMWF HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT WITH
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF 50N UNLIKE THE MORE
SOUTHERLY 06Z GFS. AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES THE GREAT LAKES ON
THU/D5... SFC LOW PRESSURE SHOULD MOVE THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN AND
INTO ONTARIO WITH THE FRONT CONTINUING A SOUTHEASTWARD PUSH. 06Z
GFS APPEARS TOO FAR NORTH WITH ITS SFC LOW OVER THE ARROWHEAD OF
MINNESOTA RATHER THAN NEAR CHICAGO BY 12Z/THURSDAY PER THE
ENSEMBLE MEANS AND THE 00Z ECMWF. THE FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE EAST
COAST ON FRI/D6 BUT ITS TIMING DEPENDS ON THE STRENGTH OF
DOWNSTREAM RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC... WHICH WILL PLAY A
BIG ROLE IN STEERING EARL /FORECAST TO BE A MAJOR HURRICANE AT THE
END OF THE LATEST NHC FORECAST AT 06Z THURSDAY/. THIS SETUP SHOULD
ALLOW EARL TO RECURVE BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE US EAST COAST. THE
16Z HURRICANE COORDINATION CALL TODAY BETWEEN HPC AND NHC WILL
SHORE UP THE FORECAST FOR FRI-SAT FOR THE FINAL ISSUANCE. FOR
NOW... FOLLOWED A SLOWER 00Z CANADIAN SOLUTION THAT IS IN BETWEEN
THE FASTER/EASTERLY 00Z ECMWF AND SLOWER/WESTERLY 06-00Z GFS.

HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND... TIMING OF THE NEXT WEST COAST TROUGH
WILL BE TRICKY GIVEN THE DOWNSTREAM UNCERTAINTY. 00Z ECMWF SEEMS
TO BE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE TIMING... BUT BLENDED
IN 60 PERCENT OF THE 06Z GEFS MEAN TO DAMPEN ITS AMPLIFIED
FORECAST.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND SMARTLY IN THE SOUTHWEST AFTER THE
TROUGH LIFTS OUT... AND STAY ON THE WARM SIDE IN THE EAST AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT.


FRACASSO

[sandyb]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at2.sh ... e#contents

what does the M stand for on this

[Brent]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?5-daynl?large#contents

what does the M stand for on this

Major hurricane(Cat 3)

[KWT]

12z GFS ensembles suggest the GFS operational run is on the western portion of the guidence:

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... cal132.gif

Also note it doesn't have Fiona either on the mean which just doesn't make sense at all!