ATL: FIONA - Models

[MiamiHurricanes10]

The GFS has been out to lunch with 97L for several runs now. This concept of a hurricane eating a well developed tropical cyclone is something you would see in a bad sci-fi movie, . Seriously, I would understand the concept of Earl eating 97L if the GFS keeps 97L an open wave, but it doesn't, it intensifies it into a strong tropical storm/borderline hurricane. So, while the GFS is out in lala-land, the ECMWF has this on lock and is showing the most probable solution for now.

[HurricaneBelle]

The GFS has been out to lunch with 97L for several runs now. This concept of a hurricane eating a well developed tropical cyclone is something you would see in a bad sci-fi movie, . Seriously, I would understand the concept of Earl eating 97L if the GFS keeps 97L an open wave, but it doesn't, it intensifies it into a strong tropical storm/borderline hurricane. So, while the GFS is out in lala-land, the ECMWF has this on lock and is showing the most probable solution for now.

What would be more likely than the GFS scenario would be a Fujiwhara Effect Situation, possibly where Earl may stay south and Fiona might pinwheel to the NW around him.

[dwsqos2]

97L is not a well-organized tropical cyclone, and the gfs deepens it to around a whopping 1006 mb. Alex's inflow more or less consumed Darby earlier this year.

[Vortex]

12Z CMC look out in the northern leewards..Blows up future fiona..



http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[ConvergenceZone]

I don't even think we have to worry about Fiona now. The models seem to slowly be backing off of Fiona developing.....Earl seems to be it at the moment....

[KWT]

CMC looks too far south to start with to me, but the broad idea of it heading westwards from now onwards looks a good one.

Its not totally impossible that Earl could eat up future Fiona if Fiona was weak but the most likely soluiton IF the GFS was to come off would be a rare Fujiwara event.

[ROCK]

CMC looks very good vs the crappy GFS runs of late.....97 is going to be a very close call for PR....given the current look of future Fiona it may even go farther west....

I am in total agreement with a EC issue down the line......

[gatorcane]

I don't see the large Eastern CONUS/Western Atlantic ridge those are talking about setting up shop in the long-range. Looking at the 12Z GFS run that just ran, the pattern is still progressive across North America for at least the next 10-12 days. Even if Earl does not suck up Fiona, which is possible I will admit, looking at the GFS, I can't see a ridge that is going to be strong enough to not suck Fiona up with Earl east of the United States. I'm fully expecting the Euro operational to shift right in the coming runs east of the CONUS.

[ROCK]

I don't even think we have to worry about Fiona now. The models seem to slowly be backing off of Fiona developing.....Earl seems to be it at the moment....

I guess the 12z CMC is backing off development....

[Vortex]

12Z Nogaps nearly identical to CMC with near direct hit in northern leewards...I'm not liking the synoptics beyond 7 days as it looks like Earl will move out and this may close the door and push fiona into the bahamas/fl/ or the SE US.



12Z Nogaps loop thru H+120:


https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[Ivanhater]

I see the 00z Euro ensemble is showing a Florida threat...rough couple weeks!

[KWT]

I think the CMC is too far south, I suspect the GFS maybe close in terms of latitude but who knows...

The difference between the latitude at 60W may well be the difference between Fiona being totally disrupted by Earl or being a real threat to the E.coast...to be honest the GFS looks better then the CMC on that side of things, the CMC just looks too deep to my eyes...

[shah8]

CMC is very bad news for MA. 00z extended had it just off nantucket. It's further west by about 50-100 miles, and it's gonna go a bit more north, if the synoptics are the same, rather than a hard curve out, so easter long island and cape cod are at risk.

Ooops. This isn't the earl thread, but you know what I mean...

There needs to be a seperate thread for globals when there are so many storms.

[KWT]

The other thing to note is future Fiona is close enough to Earl for it to probably follow Earl through the same weakness but there really isn't a lot in it at all to be honest...

[ROCK]

I see the 00z Euro ensemble is showing a Florida threat...rough couple weeks!

so much for fully expecting the EURO to shift east away from the EC.....

[KWT]

12Z Nogaps nearly identical to CMC with near direct hit in northern leewards...I'm not liking the synoptics beyond 7 days as it looks like Earl will move out and this may close the door and push fiona into the bahamas/fl/ or the SE US.



12Z Nogaps loop thru H+120:


https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

Both Nogaps and the CMC model take this one WSW for a time, will be interesting if the subtropical high is strong enough to do that, I've got my doubts that solution will happen and it'll be trundling westwards which should mean it tracks just a little north of Earl's expected path right now.

[Scorpion]

I don't even think we have to worry about Fiona now. The models seem to slowly be backing off of Fiona developing.....Earl seems to be it at the moment....

What on earth are you talking about?

[Canelaw99]

I see the 00z Euro ensemble is showing a Florida threat...rough couple weeks!

Link/picture/something for us visual folks?

[Ivanhater]

I see the 00z Euro ensemble is showing a Florida threat...rough couple weeks!

Link/picture/something for us visual folks?

Here ya go

[KWT]

Wonder whether the 12z ECM will show the same solution, I think given the models are trending westwards with Earl its going to be a tighter affair again for Fiona as Earl won't likely recurve out as quickly as perhaps the ECM has been keen to suggest which means its more likely future Fiona tries to follow Earl, maybe like the GFS but no absorbtion like the GFS is strangly still trying to do.