ATL: EARL - Models

[gatorcane]

Do you feel that although it will be close for the East Coast per se that Florida looks to be out of danger? The models don't seem aimed at Florida. Thank you for your answers.

Good example of a storm that will pass through the Hebert box but won't make landfall in Florida. Usually storms passing where Earl will pass (near or through the Leewards/Puerto Rico) are ones to keep an eye on this time of year especially here in S. Florida, but the NHC seems quite confident that the steering currents won't bring in this way.

[supercane]

GFS is a little to the north of the 06z run, thats a good move and hopefully that starts to become a trend as well!

Let's hope so. Last 4 GFS runs:

[lester]

Hits the northeast leewards:

[KWT]

Still close enough on the 12z despite being a little to the north of the 06z GFS at 24hrs to probably be classed as a direct hit for the NE Caribbean...

Slows right down and once again has Fiona racing westwards to catch up with Earl.

[gatorcane]

90 hours. Looks like both are ready to curve away from the United States:

[lester]

Can't do that with a high to its north.....

[KWT]

Well its heading NW at that point Gatorcane, will probably keep heading NW till the upper trough over the Central States moves into the E.States. IMO this run is too slow with Earl's motion in the first 24-36hrs...

[gatorcane]

Can't do that with a high to its north.....

I assure you they can. You are looking at the surface high. Look at 300MB to 500MB in the atmosphere where a weakness lies.

300MB showing a break in the ridge that Earl and possibly Fiona will move through missing the United States:

[Scorpion]

Why is it constantly trying to race Fiona and slow down Earl so that they do that funky dance. GFS continues to be on crack

[gatorcane]

Why is it constantly trying to race Fiona and slow down Earl so that they do that funky dance. GFS continues to be on crack

Why not? Earl is going to slow down *alot* over the next couple of days as it hits the SW periphery of the Atlantic Subtropical ridge (Azores High). Once it slows down it bends WNW then NW as a trough approaches the Eastern CONUS keeping the Bermuda High very weak. Future Fiona is shallow and is trapped under the same ridge. She will race West or WNW at around 20 mph. I think she will catch Earl like the GFS is showing.

[KWT]

I think the GFS has lost the plot with Fiona Gatorcane to be honest...

Earl will slow down but its too slow from the get-go with Earl whilst it maybe a touch fast with 97L...sure 97L will catch up but not to the point where it actually totally interacts with Earl.

Remember the GFS pulled the same trick with Danielle and Earl and that one turned out to be nonsense.

[Riptide]

I think the GFS has lost the plot with that one Gatorcane to be honest...

Earl will slow down but its too slow from the get-go with Earl whilst it maybe a touch fast with 97L...

So, what happend to the trough? Nothing but ridging on the GFS, it doesn't plow into NC because of the way it interacts with Fiona.

[Brent]

BIG WEST SHIFT

[srainhoutx]

Hour 132

[KWT]

I think the GFS has lost the plot with that one Gatorcane to be honest...

Earl will slow down but its too slow from the get-go with Earl whilst it maybe a touch fast with 97L...

So, what happend to the trough? Nothing but ridging on the GFS, it doesn't plow into NC because of the way it interacts with Fiona.

As Gatorcane said its there, but you need to look at the upper levels, nothing on the GFS to suggest its going to make a landfall...not to say it can't be a close call though!

Now if the GFS is underestimating the forward speed right now which seems highly likely, then that may well make a difference to things!!

[Brent]

[AdamFirst]

Could be a dreary day for the outer banks on that run.

[Scorpion]

It's safe to say there is now a significant threat to the East Coast from Earl

[KWT]

Close enough to need watching there Brent, esp if the models are not catching onto the systems current forward speed very well which appears to be the case.

Earl should start to really slow down if the models are right though as it starts to feel the weakness, may even see a brief bendback to the WNW if the upper evolution is right but mainly be a NW track from 72hrs onwards.

[Riptide]

I think the GFS has lost the plot with that one Gatorcane to be honest...

Earl will slow down but its too slow from the get-go with Earl whilst it maybe a touch fast with 97L...

So, what happend to the trough? Nothing but ridging on the GFS, it doesn't plow into NC because of the way it interacts with Fiona.

As Gatorcane said its there, but you need to look at the upper levels, nothing on the GFS to suggest its going to make a landfall...not to say it can't be a close call though!

Now if the GFS is underestimating the forward speed right now which seems highly likely, then that may well make a difference to things!!

Nothing in this run suggests a sharp recurve, the trough is still there...don't get me wrong. There are big changes but the interaction with Fiona is not believable until the euro accepts it.