ATL: Ex-Tropical Storm FIONA - Discussion

[cycloneye]

The latest. Structure looks good but still not a lot of convection.

[Vortex]

97 per latest visible is starting to come together...A very nice envelope developing with good outflow and some banding noted. Also, note the wsw movement as a whole the last few hours. This has been depicted by the CMC and Nogaps and appears underway. During the next few days I wouldn't expect much gain in latitude. This appears to be a bona fide threat to the northern antilles...Beyond that just too many variables..

[cycloneye]

Here is the SSD floater that looks more clearer than the NRL one.

[Vortex]

I expect this to be upgraded at 5pm to TD if the trends continue.

[KWT]

Yeah this one looks like it will develop, still needs a little more convection though for the NHC to get the ball rolling, esp when we have 2 systems already on the march.

Anyway this one is a real risk down the line but we've got such a long time to go and Earl needs much closer watching in the short term.

[Stephanie]

She has a nice outflow, even though the center isn't looking too solid yet.

[Vortex]

1415utc shows the center consolidating nicely with banding developing and excellent outflow developing...This one is a go...TD at 5 and if trends continue then I wouldnt be surprised to see Fiona at 11pm....really coming together hour by hour now...

[supercane]

ASCAT still does not show a well-defined closed low as shown by lack of west winds:

[Stephanie]

I find it interesting, in a concerned way, that each of these storms seem to be tracking further south and west of each other before making a turn, increasing the threat to the islands/East Coast.

[KWT]

Yeah no real closed low there at all, the NHC won't upgrade until that changes and it won't change until it actually manages to pop some better convection then it has right now...

[Vortex]

1445 convection beginning to fire over the center...TWO at 2pm Im going with 90-100%.

[gatorcane]

1445 convection beginning to fire over the center...TWO at 2pm Im going with 90-100%.

I can see that. Notice 97L is moving more WNW though the model consensus is south of that. Latest 12Z tropicals continue to start a recurve as it nears or just passes the NE Leewards to the north. ECMWF has had a west-bias all season so think it is already too far west. Watch it gradually shift more to the right away from the U.S.. This one is starting to smell fishy to me............

[Scorpion]

1445 convection beginning to fire over the center...TWO at 2pm Im going with 90-100%.

I can see that. Notice 97L is moving more WNW though the model consensus is south of that. Latest 12Z tropicals continue to start a recurve as it nears or just passes the NE Leewards to the north. ECMWF has had a west-bias all season so think it is already too far west. Watch it gradually shift more to the right away from the U.S.. This one is starting to smell fishy to me............

Lol, your posts have become so predictable. Is there ever any storm that you don't have a fish bias for?

[Vortex]

gator,

I disagree. In fact if you look at the hi-res vis the last 6 hours its trending 270..The guidance im loking at is anything but fishy...

[KWT]

1445 convection beginning to fire over the center...TWO at 2pm Im going with 90-100%.

I can see that. Notice 97L is moving more WNW though the model consensus is south of that. Latest 12Z tropicals continue to start a recurve as it nears or just passes the NE Leewards to the north. ECMWF has had a west-bias all season so think it is already too far west. Watch it gradually shift more to the right away from the U.S.. This one is starting to smell fishy to me............

Wow despite the ECM/CMC showing exactly the same solution...and the only models that recurve this one quickly are the models that try and pull a silly move like the GFS does and tries to interact Earl/Fiona...not going to happen with Earl just racing westwards, if anything the gaqp is building again though Earl will slow down as it starts to lift out.

I say this has a FAR greater risk then any of the previous systems...

Oh and BTW, the models don't recurve, they show a turn to the north but that is NOT a recurve, remember the models are building an upper high so a bend back west would very likely occur on quite a few of those models that do try and pull an early recurve...unless the GFS solution comes off...

Lets not forget I've been on the recurve bus for a while with both Danielle and to some extent Earl..I'm well off that bus with this one!
Far too far out with the pattern the models are suggesting, but I bet any money at all this doesn't recurve at 60W!

[MiamiHurricanes10]

Pretty evident that this is on the verge of becoming a tropical depression. Organized deep convection continues to fire over the circulation and well-defined banding features particularly to the south of the circulation supports that this is organizing. Inflow coming into all four quadrants along with satellite imagery suggest that although the circulation is not extremely defined, however it is closed. I expect the TWO to increase the percentage with classification later today.

[LowndesCoFire]

1445 convection beginning to fire over the center...TWO at 2pm Im going with 90-100%.

I can see that. Notice 97L is moving more WNW though the model consensus is south of that. Latest 12Z tropicals continue to start a recurve as it nears or just passes the NE Leewards to the north. ECMWF has had a west-bias all season so think it is already too far west. Watch it gradually shift more to the right away from the U.S.. This one is starting to smell fishy to me............

Lol, your posts have become so predictable. Is there ever any storm that you don't have a fish bias for?

Agreed, but this is what makes this forum so good. Some people argue one way and some argue other ways even when simply rooted in personal opinion.

[KWT]

Pretty evident that this is on the verge of becoming a tropical depression. Organized deep convection continues to fire over the circulation and well-defined banding features particularly to the south of the circulation supports that this is organizing. Inflow coming into all four quadrants along with satellite imagery suggest that although the circulation is not extremely defined, however it is closed. I expect the TWO to increase the percentage with classification later today.

Its getting there though the earlier Ascat suggested this was quite some way from being closed...of course that could have changed and I agree its not far from being upgraded, but equally I can understand if they decide to hold back for just a little bit longer as well...

Personally though I'd still be tempted to upgrade it, still we will know soon enough.

[ROCK]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm1.html

for now its westward in the low level flow....

[Florida1118]

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...ASSOCIATED WITH A VIGOROUS TROPICAL
WAVE...IS LOCATED ABOUT 350 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM LATER TONIGHT OR SUNDAY. THERE
IS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD TO WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.
---
still at 80...