ATL: FIONA - Models

[OURAGAN]

After looking at the visible, i Think 12,1N and 27,9W is a best track and not at 12,7N

[ColinDelia]

108 hours


114 hours


132 hours

[KWT]

GFS is still trying to interact Earl and Fiona which just doesn't look like a realistic IMO, the Euro solution/CMC idea upto 144hrs looks better, after that and it just depends on whether the upper high builds in quickly enough to shunt this one westwards again...certainly a tough call!

[Blown Away]

Remember the GFS was trying to do a similar thing with Danielle/Earl. When it's all said and done, IMO Earl will move out faster or 97L will slow down. This Earl/97L merge and dance thing is not realistic IMO.

[KWT]

Nope totally agree with you BA I just can't see it happening that way at all, it just isn't something that looks realistic as you say.

[Blown Away]

Nope totally agree with you BA I just can't see it happening that way at all, it just isn't something that looks realistic as you say.

KWT, I'm trying to read the latest model runs and get a sense what is happening? Models recurving Fiona just offshore or they going to move them back towards the EC, so far looks like Fiona stays of SFL??

[KWT]

Its a tough call, the models are trying to build in ridging but how fast this one gets westwards and also how quick Earl moves through will be key to how the pattern for Fiona moves...The set-up is there though from the models IF Earl moves through quickly enough and Fiona keeps its distance for at the very least a very close shave and possibly for more...

[cycloneye]

12z Tropical Models

Code: Select all

365
WHXX01 KWBC 281244
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1244 UTC SAT AUG 28 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL972010) 20100828 1200 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100828  1200   100829  0000   100829  1200   100830  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    13.4N  28.4W   14.6N  31.7W   15.6N  35.9W   16.5N  40.6W
BAMD    13.4N  28.4W   14.1N  31.6W   14.7N  35.1W   15.5N  38.9W
BAMM    13.4N  28.4W   14.2N  31.7W   15.0N  35.7W   15.8N  40.0W
LBAR    13.4N  28.4W   13.9N  31.4W   14.5N  34.9W   15.1N  38.7W
SHIP        25KTS          28KTS          34KTS          42KTS
DSHP        25KTS          28KTS          34KTS          42KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100830  1200   100831  1200   100901  1200   100902  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    17.2N  45.4W   18.3N  55.1W   22.7N  63.8W   30.4N  69.9W
BAMD    16.5N  42.9W   19.3N  50.6W   22.2N  57.2W   24.4N  61.1W
BAMM    16.4N  44.7W   17.9N  53.8W   21.5N  61.8W   28.0N  66.8W
LBAR    15.7N  42.7W   17.4N  50.8W     .0N    .0W     .0N    .0W
SHIP        51KTS          66KTS          75KTS          78KTS
DSHP        51KTS          66KTS          75KTS          78KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  13.4N LONCUR =  28.4W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR =  14KT
LATM12 =  12.4N LONM12 =  25.4W DIRM12 = 290DEG SPDM12 =  13KT
LATM24 =  11.9N LONM24 =  23.3W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   80NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD =  250NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM


[BigA]

Model consensus looks a good bit to the left of yesterday, probably partially because 97L isn't showing a whole lot of zeal in organizing, though evolving synoptics are also a factor.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

I am waiting for the models to start showing a west bend at the end of those runs. Really believe now that Earl will.make a quicker NW turn and accelerate out of the way of 97L. Whatever weakness he leaves behind will be long gone and fully expect a strong high to build in blocking much northward movement. Question is how long does it stay? Only two days before breaking down or a week. This could surprise some folks in the Bahamas and southern Florida. This one could be trouble down the road. These models almost always try and turn these sytems north to quick. Have no doubt they will shift more south and west over the weekend.

[srainhoutx]

00Z Euro Ensembles...

[KWT]

Those ensembles sure suggest a threat to the east coast/Florida there, but obviously thats a good 10 days out and plenty of things can change.

I expect the models will start to show a bend back westwards at the end on that graphic with the models in the next few days as the pattern at 168hrs comes into a closer range, though I think it tracks a little north of Earl near the SE Caribbean.

[plasticup]

I like how the 06 run of GFDL shows this becoming a Cat 4, but HWRF shows a TS. At least they agree on an Earl-like track.

[gatorcane]

I am waiting for the models to start showing a west bend at the end of those runs. Really believe now that Earl will.make a quicker NW turn and accelerate out of the way of 97L. Whatever weakness he leaves behind will be long gone and fully expect a strong high to build in blocking much northward movement. Question is how long does it stay? Only two days before breaking down or a week. This could surprise some folks in the Bahamas and southern Florida. This one could be trouble down the road. These models almost always try and turn these sytems north to quick. Have no doubt they will shift more south and west over the weekend.

Not sure what you mean about the models turning north too quickly? Go back and look at what the globals showed for Danielle. They got the track pretty darn close a week out in advance despite some on here mentioning words like GOM and Bahamas, even Florida. Same goes for Earl, you will likely find they will verify as well. As for this system, its at least 8-10 days or so out. No need to pinpoint certain areas as this will undoubtedly change. Actually when you look at the models on this system the past few days, I don't really see the models shifting much at all. General consensus on track would be towards the NE Leewards or nearby....then a gradual turn to the WNW or NW. Not much suggests any US landfall at this point, though we will monitor the trends to see what happens.

[KWT]

Gatorcane, I'm guessing your ignoring the fact that quite a few of the models develop a decent upper high to the nort hof the system by 168hrs?

Take a look at both the eCm/CMC solution long range, they show a VERY tight set-up for the E.coast and any slight westward shift would mean a threat to the east coast would be greatly increased.

Also lets not forget Earl has been trending westwards over time as has 97L models, which orginally some of the models had recurving at 50W!
Just watch this one trend westwards, if Earl gets close in a synoptic that isn't that favourable for E.coast threats...then this one is a MUCH higher risk with the upper high building in again.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Exactly KWT. Not saying the models are off on the general w to wnw motion right now. I am talking about the time frame you mentioned that will more than likely shift west as the weakness Earl leaves behind fills in with the ridge building in behind it.

[cycloneye]

GFS continues with the scenario of Earl eating 97L/TD 8/Fiona. IMO, I dont see that occuring.

[KWT]

Fiona will very likely catch up Earl to some extent but its a tight call...

Having looked at the UKMO/GFS though I'm suddenly a lot less sure about the evolution of 97L...it all depends on how quickly Earl keeps moving and how much it slows down.

Either way 97L is moving along at a real clip right now looking at the Sat imagery...

[Vortex]

97 also looks to have a large envelope so at this time im completely discounting the gfs...at present cmc/nogaps seem to be handling the synoptics best..lets see what the 12z bring with both runs..

[KWT]

Looks like Fiona's future is totally entangled in how quickly Earl moves northwards and out of the way...the sooner Earl lifts up the greater the chances of this system being a threat.

IF Earl slows down enough and 97L keeps up its current motion then yeah it probably will catch Earl up and maybe become absorbed but I wouldn't count on it.