ATL: EARL - Models

[shah8]

Also, of course, any more westward drift and NC/VA gets it. That's some serious w change, plus greater chances for NE megapolis hit before rounding the high.

[Evil Jeremy]

00z HWRF recurves close to 70W and tracks close to the NE Caribbean after being one of the rightmost models in the 18z set and recurving around 65W then.

[shah8]

The gfs situation is just completely foobar'd and messing up the non-globals. Anyone got the gdfn? NOGAPS might not be any good, but the grid might work better.

[Ivanhater]

00z Euro looks really close to the Islands

[ColinDelia]

6z GFS. 42 hours

[ColinDelia]

48 hours

[ColinDelia]

54 hours

[ColinDelia]

60 hours

[ColinDelia]

66 hours

[ColinDelia]

SHIPS. Note the shear at the end

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 50 55 60 64 71 79 86 93 96 99 99 100 98
V (KT) LAND 50 55 60 64 71 79 86 93 96 99 99 100 98
V (KT) LGE mod 50 55 60 66 71 82 92 100 106 107 104 97 91

SHEAR (KT) 2 15 18 12 9 8 11 8 4 16 28 23 26

LGE a little higher than SHIPS. LGE was more accurate than SHIPS last year

[ColinDelia]

72 hours

[ColinDelia]

6z GFS. 84 hours


Compare to 90 hours at the 0z

[KWT]

Models looking very scary for the Ne Caribbean, this one could well hammer them pretty hard looking at todays models and some of them are now showing a direct hit on the Caribbean Islands as a hurricane.

[ColinDelia]

Yeah KWT. Looks like it will be as close as can be.

[ColinDelia]

96 hours

[ColinDelia]

132 hours


Compare to the 138 hours from the 0z run

[ColinDelia]

144 hours


150 hours

[ColinDelia]

156 hours.

[KWT]

Earl really isn't far away from the Bamahas either really, esp the Turk and Caicos islands.

[ColinDelia]

162 hours