ATL: EARL - Models

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Ivanhater
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Re: ATL: EARL - Models

#581 Postby Ivanhater » Fri Aug 27, 2010 11:16 pm

Fiona hitting the Islands. Earl seems to be trying to bust the ridge

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Evil Jeremy
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#582 Postby Evil Jeremy » Fri Aug 27, 2010 11:18 pm

Wow.... just..... holy crap.... and that doesn't even take Earl's newfound WSW-SW motion into account.
Last edited by Evil Jeremy on Fri Aug 27, 2010 11:18 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: EARL - Models

#583 Postby StormGuy » Fri Aug 27, 2010 11:18 pm

Amazing to see the separation between Danielle and Earl on these runs! She really books out of here.
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Re: ATL: EARL - Models

#584 Postby ROCK » Fri Aug 27, 2010 11:19 pm

Earl aint going through that.....however there is a trof over the upper mid-west scooting on in...doesnt look that deep....more zonal...
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Re: ATL: EARL - Models

#585 Postby Ivanhater » Fri Aug 27, 2010 11:19 pm

114..still trying to go into the ridge

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Re: ATL: EARL - Models

#586 Postby Riptide » Fri Aug 27, 2010 11:20 pm

Holy ****! Earl has already passed 70W. :eek:
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Re: ATL: EARL - Models

#587 Postby ROCK » Fri Aug 27, 2010 11:21 pm

[quote="Ivanhater"]114..still trying to go into the ridge

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... 4.gifquote]


steering collapses? he should be moving towards FL or EC with a ridge like that...
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Re: ATL: EARL - Models

#588 Postby blazess556 » Fri Aug 27, 2010 11:21 pm

[quote="Ivanhater"]114..still trying to go into the ridge

Image[/quote

how strong does that ridge have to be to keep the gfs from ramming earl into it. lol
Last edited by blazess556 on Fri Aug 27, 2010 11:21 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#589 Postby gatorcane » Fri Aug 27, 2010 11:21 pm

What does the 300mb and higher show? Earl is so strong at this point it is being steered by winds higher in the atmosphere
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Re: ATL: EARL - Models

#590 Postby Riptide » Fri Aug 27, 2010 11:23 pm

I think the NHC database server just crashed. :lol:
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#591 Postby ConvergenceZone » Fri Aug 27, 2010 11:24 pm

Wow, that's getting awful close to the bahamas at 114 hours
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Re: ATL: EARL - Models

#592 Postby ROCK » Fri Aug 27, 2010 11:26 pm

Image
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#593 Postby gatorcane » Fri Aug 27, 2010 11:26 pm

Looks to be a west shift here though still misses the bahamas

Earl is being steered by winds higher than 500mb it appears
Last edited by gatorcane on Fri Aug 27, 2010 11:27 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: EARL - Models

#594 Postby ROCK » Fri Aug 27, 2010 11:27 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: EARL - Models

#595 Postby Riptide » Fri Aug 27, 2010 11:38 pm

Yeah, the depth and orientation of the midwest trough needs to change if this is going to be anything other than a near-miss and sharp recurve.
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Re: ATL: EARL - Models

#596 Postby ColinDelia » Fri Aug 27, 2010 11:54 pm

Comparison of the last 3 GFS runs (note not the same run)

0z 60 hours
Image

18z 66 hours
Image

12z 72 hours
Image
Last edited by ColinDelia on Sat Aug 28, 2010 12:30 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#597 Postby fci » Sat Aug 28, 2010 12:19 am

Seems like the 102 hr. model makes Fiona awfully close to Earl.
Unrealistically close, IMO
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Re: ATL: EARL - Models

#598 Postby BigA » Sat Aug 28, 2010 12:35 am

00 CMC brings Earl uncomfortably close to the east coast.

Image

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Re: ATL: EARL - Models

#599 Postby blp » Sat Aug 28, 2010 12:40 am

BigA wrote:00 CMC brings Earl uncomfortably close to the east coast.



Uploaded with ImageShack.us


I was just going to post that.. Look at the difference 24 hours ago.


24 hours ago:
Image

Tonight:
Image
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#600 Postby shah8 » Sat Aug 28, 2010 12:45 am

The thing that really gives me food for thought is that fiona gets very close to southern florida in the extended forcast. These changes sorta seems to amplify a southern track for Fiona.
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