ATL: EARL - Models

[Ivanhater]

Recurving, but not by much

[Aquawind]

Woah.. That will have the media in troipcal update mode alright.

[KWT]

Yeah and Fiona is close enough behind to probably follow Earl out...

Not far away from the E.coast but unless the timings of the troughing changes thats probably about as close as it could probably get I'd imagine...

One of these storms will break through though sooner or later from the looks of thing...

[Riptide]

Massive changes in the GFS ensembles regarding Earl. I have pretty good idea at what may happen and it is not pretty(Two conus landfalls within 4 days).

[srainhoutx]

Massive changes in the GFS ensembles regarding Earl. I have pretty good idea at what may happen and it is not pretty(Two conus landfalls within 4 days).

Do you have a link?

[Typhoon_Willie]

Timing is key to these recurve scenarios. A delay in that timing could be all the difference in the world.

[Riptide]

Massive changes in the GFS ensembles regarding Earl. I have pretty good idea at what may happen and it is not pretty(Two conus landfalls within 4 days).

Do you have a link?

18z GFS Ensemble Mean(Loop):http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/gfsensemble/18zGFSEnsembles500mbHGHTtropical_Loop.html
GFS Ensemble Page:http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/gfsensemble.html

[KWT]

Yeah GFS ensembles have shifted westwards but look to be way too quick with Fiona so whether or not that plays a role who knows!

GFS ensembles still shows a recurve though and the 18z GFS ensembles show a slightly stronger trough digging down.

[sfwx]

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL


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000
FXUS62 KMFL 271857
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
257 PM EDT FRI AUG 27 2010

.DISCUSSION...

LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL DROP
SOUTHWEST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AS A STRONG RIDGE AMPLIFIES
OVER THE APPALACHIANS. THE 12Z MODEL SUITE IS SOMEWHAT SLOWER
DROPPING THIS BACK DOOR BOUNDARY SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA...SUGGESTING ANY INCREASED MOISTURE AND WIND WITH THIS
FEATURE WILL NOT IMPACT OUR AREA UNTIL LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY
MONDAY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL THEN ESSENTIALLY STALL AND SLOWLY
WEAKEN OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
CONTINUED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS. THE HIGHEST
CHANCE WILL AGAIN BE TOWARD THE WEST COAST...AS INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE SHOULD BRINGER DRIER AIR TO OUR NORTHEAST ZONES.


LONG TERM...14/MJB
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...57/DG

[jaxfladude]

"I have a bad feeling about this."

[Riptide]

I was just speculating on possible trends, sorry If I didn't fully explain. It seems like the midwest trough wants to dig more and come in slower while ridging becomes stronger ahead of Earl which would be more favorable for an EC landfall instead of this sharp recurve we have been seeing.

[sfwx]

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
225 PM EDT FRI AUG 27 2010

VALID 12Z MON AUG 30 2010 - 12Z FRI SEP 03 2010

UPPER PATTERN AT THE START OF THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD SHOULD
FEATURE A FAMILIAR SETUP THIS SUMMER... WITH A STRONG WEST COAST
TROUGH AND EAST COAST RIDGING. STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES AT 500MB ARE
IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF FOUR BELOW CLIMO IN THE WEST AND TWO ABOVE
CLIMO IN THE EAST WITH A CLOSED 594 DM CENTERED OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC. THEREAFTER THE DE-AMPLIFICATION ALOFT ENSUES AS A
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE PLAINS INTO CANADA WITH AT LEAST ONE WAVE
RIDING ALONG THE FRONT INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY THU/D6.

OPERATIONAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN BUT
ENSEMBLE SPREAD /NORMALIZED STANDARD DEVIATION/ PER THE ECMWF
ENSEMBLES IS FAIRLY HIGH IN THE TROUGH AXIS AND AS IT LIFTS OUT OF
THE WEST. 06Z/00Z GFS ARE QUICKER TO BRING A CLOSED LOW ALOFT
ACROSS HUDSON BAY WED-THU/D5-6 WHEREAS THE 00Z
ECMWF/CANADIAN/UKMET ARE SLOWER /IN THAT ORDER/. THE ENSEMBLE
MEANS ARE GENERALLY THE SLOWEST ALOFT. DIFFERENCES ARE NOT AS BIG
SOUTH OF 50N OVER THE PLAINS BUT ARE STILL SIGNIFICANT. 06Z GFS IS
VERY QUICK WITH THE FRONT... A RESULT OF BEING EXTREMELY QUICK
ACROSS CANADA... AND WAS DISCOUNTED. THE 00Z GFS IS AT LEAST A
CLOSER PACE TO THE 00Z ECMWF AND ENSEMBLE MEANS BUT IT HAS VARIED
ON PLACEMENT OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR NORTHERN MICHIGAN ON THU/D6.
ECMWF HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT OVER ITS RECENT RUNS. FRONT SHOULD
MAKE IT TO THE EAST COAST BY FRI/D7 AS EARL LOOMS TO THE EAST OF
NORTH CAROLINA. GFS/CANADIAN/ECMWF KEEP EARL EAST OF 70W BUT VARY
IN LATITUDE BY ABOUT 10 DEGREES. ENSEMBLE CLUSTERING IS NIL BY
NEXT FRIDAY SO WENT IN THE MIDDLE FOR NOW WITH EARL JUST OFF THE
PRELIM MAP NEARER TO THE 00Z GFS POSITION. THE 16Z HURRICANE
COORDINATION CALL WITH NHC WILL DETERMINE THE FINAL FORECAST
POSITION FOR THE AFTERNOON GRAPHICS.

12Z UPDATE... GFS REMAINS FASTER THAN THE 00Z ECMWF WITH HEIGHT
FALLS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES MID-WEEK BUT SLOWER THAN ITS EARLIER
RUNS IN THE PAC NW COAST BY FRI/D7. IT FORECASTS A DEEP TROUGH TO
MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHEAST AT A QUICKER PACE THAN ANY OF THE
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATE. THE 12Z CANADIAN APPEARS MUCH TOO
STRONG WITH ENERGY THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY THU/D6. 12Z UKMET
PARALLELS THE 00Z ECMWF FAIRLY WELL AT THE SFC BUT IS ON THE SLOW
SIDE ESPECIALLY ALOFT BY MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. 12Z GEFS MEAN MAINTAINS EARLIER THINKING SO SAW NO NEED TO
CHANGE PRELIM PROGS.

16Z NHC COORDINATED POSITION ON EARL KEEPS IT EAST OF 70W
THU-FRI/D6-7 AND WEST OF BERMUDA AS IT SHOULD RECURVE IN THE
WEAKNESS ALOFT.

FRACASSO

[cycloneye]

00z Tropical Models

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 280111
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0111 UTC SAT AUG 28 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
TROPICAL CYCLONE EARL (AL072010) 20100828 0000 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100828  0000   100828  1200   100829  0000   100829  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    15.9N  47.0W   16.6N  50.9W   17.7N  54.3W   18.7N  57.4W
BAMD    15.9N  47.0W   16.3N  50.5W   16.8N  54.0W   17.2N  57.0W
BAMM    15.9N  47.0W   16.5N  50.9W   17.3N  54.5W   18.1N  57.5W
LBAR    15.9N  47.0W   16.7N  50.6W   17.6N  54.3W   18.6N  57.7W
SHIP        45KTS          53KTS          61KTS          71KTS
DSHP        45KTS          53KTS          61KTS          71KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100830  0000   100831  0000   100901  0000   100902  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    20.1N  60.1W   23.0N  65.1W   23.9N  70.8W   25.0N  72.5W
BAMD    17.8N  59.4W   19.7N  63.0W   24.1N  66.0W   30.7N  69.2W
BAMM    18.9N  60.0W   21.4N  63.9W   24.4N  68.1W   28.2N  71.3W
LBAR    19.9N  60.4W   22.7N  63.0W   27.7N  65.6W   28.9N  71.1W
SHIP        80KTS          91KTS          97KTS         102KTS
DSHP        80KTS          91KTS          97KTS         102KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  15.9N LONCUR =  47.0W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR =  19KT
LATM12 =  15.7N LONM12 =  43.2W DIRM12 = 272DEG SPDM12 =  19KT
LATM24 =  15.4N LONM24 =  39.6W
WNDCUR =   45KT RMAXWD =   45NM WNDM12 =   40KT
CENPRS = 1002MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD =  240NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =   75NM RD34SE =   45NM RD34SW =   45NM RD34NW =  75NM


[gatorcane]

Well unless Earl gets sheared and stays weak looks like it should pass by the leewards to the northeast...closer than Danielle but should stay enough to the northeast to not be a major problem. This has been my thinking since earlier this week. Notice how tight the model consensus is now.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Wow looks like my friends in Newfoundland & maybe Nova Scotia get at least a good old fashioned "big blow" out of Earl. If those tropical models Cycloneye posed are in anyway correct. With this westward trend, things are starting to get interesting....

[terrapintransit]

[Riptide]

:fishing:

[terrapintransit]

:fishing:

OK ok...be gentle. It was just an honest assumption...I'm done.

[ROCK]

Earl is sheared, and moving due west...regardless how tightly clustered the model are right now they can easily shift....like they been doing...notice now the islands are in the cone...even the slight deviation in track could put the islands in more at risk...

[Riptide]

:fishing:

OK ok...be gentle. It was just an honest assumption...I'm done.

Just fooling around, man.