ATL: Ex Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion

[ConvergenceZone]

Will be interesting to see the Vis.imagery tomorrow morning is it continues this presentation to see where the center actually is, could easily be on the northern side of the convection or who know maybe the center has relocated, remains to be seen but IR won't tell us much on that front.

I know it's probably an illusion, but when you look at the Sat Loop, you would swear that it's heading towards Central America...

[Ivanhater]

Will be interesting to see the Vis.imagery tomorrow morning is it continues this presentation to see where the center actually is, could easily be on the northern side of the convection or who know maybe the center has relocated, remains to be seen but IR won't tell us much on that front.

Center is definitely on the NE corner of the convection, but is still a bit elongated. That is why the convection to the SW may draw in the center.

[Gustywind]

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track increases winds to 45kts

AL, 07, 2010082800, , BEST, 0, 159N, 470W, 45, 1002, TS

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest

Still strait west.

[Riptide]

00z Best Track increases winds to 45kts

AL, 07, 2010082800, , BEST, 0, 159N, 470W, 45, 1002, TS

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest

Still strait west.

It is going to pass through the Mona Passage, lol joking.
Apparently it thinks the center is under the SW convection.

[Emmett_Brown]

NE shear looks to be hitting Earl hard at the moment... if this continues, he risks becoming a naked swirl. He has a large circulation though, so I don't think he will weaken much, but I do think the shear will keep him from intensifying tonight. Should stay a minimal TS IMO. Danielle's upper level anticyclone is the culprit:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html

[Riptide]

NE shear looks to be hitting Earl hard at the moment... if this continues, he risks becoming a naked swirl. He has a large circulation though, so I don't think he will weaken much, but I do think the shear will keep him from intensifying tonight. Should stay a minimal TS IMO. Danielle's upper level anticyclone is the culprit:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html

Seems like this interaction was well-played out by the global and tropical models. No major strengthening until 60W.

[ROCK]

Will be interesting to see the Vis.imagery tomorrow morning is it continues this presentation to see where the center actually is, could easily be on the northern side of the convection or who know maybe the center has relocated, remains to be seen but IR won't tell us much on that front.

Center is definitely on the NE corner of the convection, but is still a bit elongated. That is why the convection to the SW may draw in the center.

Agree Ivan , make sense as the blow up of convection is the lower pressure...migrating to that complex is a good possibilty....seen it before....current steering...

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm1.html

[BigA]

I believe that Earl is probably relocating to the stronger convection to the southwest. Here is my evidence: check out the buoy at about 14.5 north, 46 west on the Ramsdis imagery. The most recent data shows the winds there from due south, which would indicate that the center is nearly due west (and not a degree and a half or so north) of the buoy's latitude.

Also, on this map http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8vor3.html the vorticity associated with Earl has shifted to the wsw in the last three hours.

This relocation, if it is occuring, could be the difference between little and big impacts in the northeastern lesster antilles, but it could be insigificant.

[ROCK]

if it indeed occurs, this would be huge for the islands and probably track on the southern side of the current NHC cone....

[Category 5]

I see it too, we can basically almost throw out the 00z runs now. Definitely a relocation to the south occurring.

[I-wall]

It does look like the center is on the NE side of the convection, but it still looks like it has lost some latitude in the last several hours. Steering currents indicate that it should be moving WSW...this could have big implications for the islands.

Just my opinion...i'm no pro.

[Ivanhater]

From the NHC intermediate advisory

ON THE FORECAST TRACK THE CENTER OF EARL COULD APPROACH
THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS ON SUNDAY NIGHT.

[Weatherfreak000]

WOW!

It looks like it's dropped to about 15.5N. I am coming out of my posting slumber to comment on this development.

And when you consider the current steering currents...I could see this continue to dip to the WSW. Huge track developments occurring tonight IMO.

[Dean4Storms]

Just stepped into this discussion. I had just posted on the models thread that I believe Earl could feel the SW periphery of the sub-tropical ridge more than the models have shown thus far. It looks like it already is, watch out islands!!!!

[Gustywind]

RESIDENTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF EARL THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED AS EARLY
AS SATURDAY MORNING.

Hummm, less bullish on a direct threat for the Northern Leewards?: as maybe the cone of incertitudes is amplified. Not good news for much of the Leewards and even portions of the Northern Windwards??, Hope i'm wrong. Let's continue to follow extremely carefully Earl. Wait and see..

[HURAKAN]

Latest ... RECON visiting Earl tomorrow

[hurricanefloyd5]

WOW!

It looks like it's dropped to about 15.5N. I am coming out of my posting slumber to comment on this development.

And when you consider the current steering currents...I could see this continue to dip to the WSW. Huge track developments occurring tonight IMO.

WOW is right possible track shift to the south and west????????

[cycloneye]

[BigA]

Half a degree to the south could be huge in terms of possible effects on the northeastern islands...and look at the 5 day cone; if it follows the western edge, it will make landfall in the US...definitely not a fish yet, not by a long shot.