ATL: FIONA - Models

[Duddy]

Figures, I just moved from Matagorda, TX to Wilmington, NC.

[Ivanhater]

Through 228 hours, Operational is still the northern outlier...most ensemble members are in the Bahamas...

[Scorpion]

About 1/2 of the Euro ensembles take it into FL

[Vortex]

what part of fl scorpion?

[Ivanhater]

Bahamas..

[shah8]

long range Canadian sez off of Ft Lauderdale. Far as I can see, but I'd like to see synoptic dynamics.

[Vortex]

very interesting, similar to the 00z canadian...

[JPmia]

there appears to be a difference in strength and organization between the two

[cajungal]

very interesting, similar to the 00z canadian...

def wouldn't want that. then it would get into the gulf. going to be in Pensacola Labor Day weekend.

[Ivanhater]

there appears to be a difference in strength and organization between the two

The graphic on the right is the operational run. You won't see an organized system on the ensemble graphic. It is a blend of multiple members and shows lower pressures. It is not indicative of strength.

[KWT]

Jeez the Euro gets down to....908mbs!!!!!

Thats an amazing run and once again backs up the idea that the upper high will strength and if this system isn't north of say 30N when that happens, its only going to get trapped and forced WNW towards the east coast.

[srainhoutx]

Didn't see the 240 hour EC Ensembles posted...

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Lets also not forget the models will most likely swing more south and west over the next few days as well, just like they have with Earl. There are numerous "what if" scenarios that can pull future Fionna north or stay west. I really think the most likely scenario is that Earl will eventually turn as he gets near the islands and start to accelerate out of the way. There will be a weakness left behind but 97L will be a couple of days behind and it will close quickly with stout high pressure building in. What happens after that I will leave up to one's imagination. Just don't see this one missing some part of the US.

[KWT]

The thing is if Earl does take a more westerly route that seems to mean that future Fiona will recurve sharper due to the weakness being extended down by Earl through the W.Atlantic.

Its no shock that the more southerly models are also the models that have Earl turning to the north much sharper then the likes of the GFS.

ECM though do suggest an upper high builds in so if that happens then just about anything can happen from there.

So simply put, the best for those that want NO landfalls from either storm is for Earl to lift up WNW but not lift to a NW direction till near 70W...and then that allows 97L to lift out as well...and there is only a slim chance Earl is a threat to the US mainland still IMO...

[Ivanhater]

GFS still hasn't figured Fiona out. Still races Fiona ahead of most other guidance. It is starting to see more separation between Earl though...

[srainhoutx]

I suspect the that GFS still doesn't have Earl figured either. I also suspect some rather crazy outputs from that model until it gets the right idea IMO.

[KWT]

Yeah it looks like its a good bit too quick with future Fiona, the bigger the distance the higher the risk for the EC...Indeed the slower this feature moves the more chance the upper level flow switches quickly enough for this to be a threat just like the ECM shows...

I'll nail my flag to the mast and say this has a pretty decent chance of being a threat down the line...maybe not quite to landfall but close enough to need serious attention like Earl is getting now...

[CYCLONE MIKE]

KWT,
I m not worried much about Earl being a threat to the mainland. I don't think he will make an abrubt hard right but more of a gradual nw turn. Still I think it will happen quicker than the gfs is showing and the door will be shut on 97L following his tail with high pressure building in behind Earl. This is definately the one to watch.

[Riptide]

Yeah it looks like its a good bit too quick with future Fiona, the bigger the distance the higher the risk for the EC...Indeed the slower this feature moves the more chance the upper level flow switches quickly enough for this to be a threat just like the ECM shows...

I'll nail my flag to the mast and say this has a pretty decent chance of being a threat down the line...maybe not quite to landfall but close enough to need serious attention like Earl is getting now...

Perhaps Earl will parallel the coastline while Fiona makes a landfall in Florida or Georgia/South Carolina as the weakness completely gives away.

[barometerJane61]

I am nervous about 97L/future Fiona.Especially if she should make it into the Gulf