ATL: FIONA - Models

[Vortex]

I don't think ive ever seen a pressure forecasted to be that low on the euro..ever!

[Brent]

Actually, if you can believe it, the 926 mb is a weaker storm

908mb at 216 hours!!

Oh I'm saving that one.

and we thought 921 mb was epic.

[StormGuy]

I'm away from my computer, so I apologize for asking this, but is the consensus with the models right now a recurve before hitting the east coast? Thanks.

[Vortex]

The consensus is we will have fiona likley near 18-20N60W some models heading towards the US and others more N

[Stormhunter27]

Don't you mean LABOUR Day weekend?



Sorry, it's the Canadian in me

I've been watching the GFS runs on this and the 6Z run had it impacting Newfoundland almost dead on. That would make it quite the storm up there. Transitioning storms can get really intense. The big difference is that Northern East Coasters seem to totally take these events in stride. I was in Halifax for Noel and they barely noticed a hurricane going on! Surge ceases to be a big problem, but the wave action can be incredible.

Of course, the runs are flip flopping from a direct hit to offshore back to a direct hit. Not sure what to beleive as the 6Z and the 0Z had a strike, while the latest doesn't. It also totally absorbs 97L into Earl and makes it one big system so this comment could have gone on either thread I think.

[Blown Away]

I know it's hard but try not to focus on the awesome 908 mb, WOW!!! The pattern looks different from what we are seeing with Danielle/Earl, looks like the ridge over the SE has retreated W and if you watch the loop it looks like a ridge in the Atlantic is building W?? Am I reading this correctly?

[Ivanhater]

Yes, the heights are rising and the ridge is building stronger on the Euro between 216 and 240 hours..similar to the 00z run.

[carolina_73]

Going to be BIG problems for the US EC if that pattern is in place with a hurricane near the Bahamas. We have 2 runs now with the EURO showing this.

[cajungal]

908 mb? Does that translate to a Cat 5? what would the wind speed be?

[Riptide]

I am somewhat curious as to why we have no support from the GFS. Until that time, it is just background noise.

[Decomdoug]

Having lived here for 56 years, It wouldn't be Labor Day without some kind of TC event, believe me. When I was a kid it seemed every Labor Day we had a storm or one was near by.

[Ivanhater]

I am somewhat curious as to why we have no support from the GFS. Until that time, it is just background noise.

GFS looks really off, speeding 97L up to catch Earl. I don't think that is likely but we will see.

[AdamFirst]

Having lived here for 56 years, It wouldn't be Labor Day without some kind of TC event, believe me. When I was a kid it seemed every Labor Day we had a storm or one was near by.

You've lived in Port Saint Lucie for 56 years?
Poor guy

[Blown Away]

908 mb? Does that translate to a Cat 5? what would the wind speed be?

I would say that has to be a Cat 5 if not very close!

I am somewhat curious as to why we have no support from the GFS. Until that time, it is just background noise.

The latest GFS had 97L catching Earl and maybe passing him to the east. IMO, the latest GFS was junk. When the EURO talks I give it respect!

[Ivanhater]

If you can believe it, the Euro ensembles are showing the operational run the northern outlier. Ensembles are further south through 120 hours so far.

[webke]

Having lived here for 56 years, It wouldn't be Labor Day without some kind of TC event, believe me. When I was a kid it seemed every Labor Day we had a storm or one was near by.

My Mother-in-Law who will be ninrty always calls these the September storms, some things never change and I have been living here in this location for thirty years.

[Scorpion]

Yep.. Euro ensembles very clustered near the Bahamas at 216

[shah8]

Can we get extended Canadian? Comparing the Canadian with the Euro probably is a better idea. If the solutions are similar (and really, the overall synoptics later on aren't all that complicated, it looks like) then we know this scenario might bear watching.

[Vortex]

Ivan,

Can you update us on the ecm ensembles once complete..Thx.

[Decomdoug]

Having lived here for 56 years, It wouldn't be Labor Day without some kind of TC event, believe me. When I was a kid it seemed every Labor Day we had a storm or one was near by.

You've lived in Port Saint Lucie for 56 years?
Poor guy

No, Grew up in Fort Lauderdale. I've been in PSL for 9 years