ATL: EARL - Models

[ColinDelia]

174 hours

[ColinDelia]

180 hours

[ColinDelia]

And then he's off, of course

[KWT]

Is the farther west GFS has been since it started to show this system. ROCK, when our friend KWT wakes up and see this,what will his reaction be?

KWT , I think that stands for Kane Will Turn

Haha, actually its what I expected for Earl to it further west, I said last night I think the GFS solution is more realistic with it getting near 70W though if it does that it probably saves us from the far bigger threat of Fiona behind this one from the looks of things...

Anyway lets not make no mistakes here the biggest threat is to the NE Caribbean Islands, getting really quite tight for them now and any more westward shift will have them bear the brunt of strong winds...and a westward shift could make it a little tight for the Bahamas as well though I'd be surprised if it didn't recurve just before that risk plays out.

Also note the ECM hammers Bermuda on its 00z run.

[KWT]

By the way the 00z ECM ensembles have this WAY further west then the op run, pretty much at the same place as the GFS heading NW...

[AdamFirst]

12z NAM rolling in...for what it's worth

72HR


84HR

[KWT]

Lifting up at NW from the looks of things there on the NAM...

12z GFS coming out, looks like its going to be a very close call again for the islands!

[KWT]

Probably would get TS winds on the 12z GFS on the NE Caribbean Islands, very close call again!

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... cal078.gif

[KWT]

12z GFS is to the NE of the 06z run at 120hrs...a certain recurver on this run because the trough is tilted differently.

[Riptide]

12z GFS is to the NE of the 06z run at 120hrs...a certain recurver on this run because the trough is tilted differently.

The great lakes trough is so weak on this run is also much faster. Earl is going to move very slowly and follow the slightest weakness in the ridge. If this becomes a trend, watch out.

EDIT: I still think that Fiona is forcing the potent high pressure away from the East Coast, this would almost certainly be near-miss for the East Coast if Fiona did not exist.

[Riptide]

12z - 138 hours

06z - 142 hours


Where is the trough? The only saving grace is a small weakness and Fiona on the eastern side of Earl that prevents the extension of the atlantic ridge.

[shah8]

At this point, I'm giving up on the gfs and going with anticipating cmc releases. Lots of phantom canes, but no cyclones that thinks of itself as a planet or a football flanker.

[Riptide]

At this point, I'm giving up on the gfs and going with anticipating cmc releases. Lots of phantom canes, but no cyclones that thinks of itself as a planet or a football flanker.

Just wait, they will come and I think that if Fiona dissipates or heads south like on the Euro, Earl may make landfall on the outer banks.

[ROCK]

Nice GFS run so 97 is going to catch Earl and then Earl is going to eat 97....sure...

[Blown Away]

The 97L is going to catch Earl or somehow pass Earl to the east is poop, IMO! The GFS was saying the same thing about Danielle and Earl. IMO, Earl will recurve a little farther west than Danielle and 97L will slow down just like Earl did and allow Earl to recurve then it will be the same situation will Earl leave enough weakness to turn 97L before hitting land. IMO, the big difference is 97L will take longer to develop and is at a lower latitude which makes a farther west track more likely.

[JPmia]

Nice GFS run so 97 is going to catch Earl and then Earl is going to eat 97....sure...

yeah that looked weird to me too

[cycloneye]

18z Tropical Models

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 271813
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1813 UTC FRI AUG 27 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
TROPICAL CYCLONE EARL (AL072010) 20100827 1800 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100827  1800   100828  0600   100828  1800   100829  0600
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    15.7N  45.1W   16.0N  48.7W   16.9N  52.2W   17.8N  55.2W
BAMD    15.7N  45.1W   15.9N  48.5W   16.1N  51.9W   16.4N  55.0W
BAMM    15.7N  45.1W   16.0N  48.7W   16.6N  52.4W   17.2N  55.6W
LBAR    15.7N  45.1W   16.0N  48.5W   16.7N  52.4W   17.5N  55.9W
SHIP        40KTS          46KTS          54KTS          64KTS
DSHP        40KTS          46KTS          54KTS          64KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100829  1800   100830  1800   100831  1800   100901  1800
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    19.4N  58.0W   22.6N  62.9W   24.1N  68.8W   23.7N  71.5W
BAMD    16.8N  57.5W   18.2N  60.6W   21.9N  62.8W   28.5N  65.6W
BAMM    18.1N  58.0W   20.6N  61.7W   23.5N  65.8W   26.5N  68.9W
LBAR    18.6N  59.1W   21.1N  62.5W   23.8N  65.0W   27.2N  68.5W
SHIP        71KTS          83KTS          95KTS         102KTS
DSHP        71KTS          83KTS          95KTS         102KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  15.7N LONCUR =  45.1W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR =  18KT
LATM12 =  15.7N LONM12 =  40.9W DIRM12 = 275DEG SPDM12 =  17KT
LATM24 =  15.3N LONM24 =  38.0W
WNDCUR =   40KT RMAXWD =   60NM WNDM12 =   40KT
CENPRS = 1003MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD =  300NM SDEPTH =   M
RD34NE =  100NM RD34SE =   75NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW = 100NM
 


[ROCK]

trending slightly left...

[bvigal]

Has anyone seen the 12z HWRF and GFDL?
I notice the 18z fix is the exact same longitude, so 6hrs moved due west.

[Ivanhater]

I'd say the GFDL is pretty bullish on Earl