ATL: Ex-Hurricane DANIELLE - Discussion

[plasticup]

Cloud tops cooling, eyewall contracting. Recon should find a monster.

[HURAKAN]

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.0 / 947.3mb/115.0kt

No change

[xironman]

Still heading close to due west there Hurakan from the looks of things though from the loops I've been watching it probably is starting to slow down now.

Loop - http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_1

In the last few frames you can see that it goes back to a NW track

Yup, but she is still able to expand the mid level cloud deck to the southwest. Where she takes the turn and how fast she accelerates out has big implications for Earl and Fiona to be.

[GCANE]

PREDICT'S LATEST DISCUSSION:


http://catalog.eol.ucar.edu/cgi-bin/pre ... opsis.html



PREDICT pouch synopsis

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Date (UTC): 2010/08/27 12:20
Author: Boothe
Submitted at (UTC): 2010/08/27 12:27
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Pouch Name: PGI31L Official Name: Danielle Initial Center Point: 26N 57W
Notes:

All models move Danielle with a westward component for only 36
hours before recurvature. They are consistent with a phase
speed between -3.4 and -3.9 for the first 36 hours, but I used a
0.0 phase speed because of the recurvature (west then east)
scenario.

[GCANE]

PREDICT'S ENSEMBLE DISCUSSION:

http://catalog.eol.ucar.edu/cgi-bin/pre ... ssion.html



PREDICT Ensemble Discussion

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Date(UTC): 2010/08/27 11:56
Author: Ryan Torn
Submitted at(UTC): 2010/08/27 12:20
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Current Conditions/Review of Yesterday's Forecast:
While Danielle (PGI31L) has intensified into a category 4 system, the ensemble forecasts have not captured this intensification. This result is not surprising because this system does not contain a higher resolution vortex-following nest. The NCAR AHW forecasts initialized off one member of the ensemble have captured this rapid intensification, thus resolution seems to be the biggest barrier. Since the model cannot capture the intensity of the storm, the remainder of this discussion will only focus on Danielle's track. The ensemble continues to show Earl (PGI34L) as a weak tropical storm in terms of genesis metrics. The initial position of the storm seems to be appropriate given the uncertainty in the position. Forecasts of this system have not been very bullish on the current intensity, so the ensemble has done a fairly good job with this storm. INVEST 97 (PGI36L) is now being initialized in the domain. As expected, there is fairly large spread in position. The ensemble has consistently showed PGI37L to be a non-developing system.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

DAY 1 (Next 24 hours) Outlook:
Danielle still moving westward at the beginning of the forecast period. The spread in positions is oriented SW-NE at this time. Earl shows little change in intensity for most ensemble members, though some members show some intensification and some show weakening. The position variance is stretched in the E-W direction. INVEST 97 also shows little change in intensity during the first 24 hours, with all members showing genesis metrics well below genesis criteria. Some members are starting to have OW values greater than 2. PGI37L shows no change in strength.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

DAY 2 (24 - 48 hours) Outlook:
Danielle now starting to recurve and move to the NE. Position variance very stretched in the SW-NE direction. Earl starting to show a slow strengthening in all members now in terms of circulation and thickness anomaly. Position variance is now more stretched SW to NE. INVEST 97 shows little change in circulation or thickness anomaly during this period. PGI37L shows no change in intensity.
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Extended Outlook:
Danielle now firmly into the westerlies and is accelerating to the NE. The ensemble is showing quite a bit of variability in Earl's intensity by 72 h. Some of the ensemble members have Earl becoming a sub 980 hPa cyclone, while others keep Earl as a lower-end TS. The centroid of the ensemble shows strengthening of Earl to near TC strength by 72 h. This is probably the most uncertain pouch forecast to date. The ensemble forecast for INVEST 97 actually shows some weakening by the end of the forecast, while no ensemble members exceed genesis criteria. The ensemble does not contain other any areas of interest by 72 h.

[KWT]

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.0 / 947.3mb/115.0kt

No change

Yep no surprise its held at 115kts, presentation is still superb as you'd expect given the cracking look the system has right now. Wonder what the pressure is like in there, I'd bet it'll be a little lower then that.

[ConvergenceZone]

I haven't been following early or the other invest much because I"ve been tracking Danielle. Danielle has been the most enjoyable storm for me to track in the last 2 or 3 years.
I love these long trackers....
This has been fun to watch develop! What a storm!!!!!

[supercane]

000
WTNT31 KNHC 271453
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DANIELLE ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010
1100 AM AST FRI AUG 27 2010

...DANIELLE STILL A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.9N 59.8W
ABOUT 480 MI...770 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH...215 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...946 MB...27.94 INCHES

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 27/1500Z 26.9N 59.8W 115 KT
12HR VT 28/0000Z 27.9N 60.8W 115 KT
24HR VT 28/1200Z 29.5N 61.2W 115 KT
36HR VT 29/0000Z 31.5N 60.3W 110 KT
48HR VT 29/1200Z 34.3N 57.6W 95 KT
72HR VT 30/1200Z 38.0N 52.0W 80 KT
96HR VT 31/1200Z 40.5N 43.0W 65 KT
120HR VT 01/1200Z 46.0N 28.0W 60 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

[plasticup]

Recon approaching the storm...

[KWT]

Yep going to be mighty interesting to see what recon finds on its passes through Danielle...

[plasticup]

Yep going to be mighty interesting to see what recon finds on its passes through Danielle...

Aren't you supposed to be at work?

[cyclonic chronic]

1st recon hdob finding 40kt flight level winds at around 61.5, 21.5. thats a lil ways from the center

151000 2550N 06146W 6963 03174 0071 +088 +084 349039 040 034 002 00
151030 2551N 06146W 6965 03174 0073 +089 +083 349040 040 036 001 00
151100 2552N 06145W 6969 03167 0071 +090 +082 349040 041 036 002 00
151130 2554N 06144W 6966 03169 0064 +093 +079 350043 043 036 002 00
151200 2555N 06143W 6967 03165 0060 +095 +076 352042 043 035 003 00

but the last few frames of the rainbow loop looks like the eye is becoming a little filled in. maybe the beginings of an ERC? lets see if recon finds a double wind max.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-rb.html

[OuterBanker]

Wow, what a beauty. Love to watch from a distance and with any luck all the CV's will be out to sea.

With five days left and three storms on the map maybe we will hit the all time ace number for one day in August. The first for the record books this year.

The way things look now we could also have the most active Sept ever. Just crossing fingers that they are all fish.

Danielle will also create some wonderful waves for surfing.

Only drawback I see is that I would avoid any NY to London trans atlantic cruises for awhile.

[KWT]

Yep going to be mighty interesting to see what recon finds on its passes through Danielle...

Aren't you supposed to be at work?

I'm heading into work about 45 mins time, looks like I may just sneak in the first pass before I have to go, but there ya go!

Will be interesting to see what recon finds in there over the next few hours!

[supercane]

Nice microwave presentation:


Latest vis:

[KWT]

Eye doesn't look as clear right now looking at that image Supercane, may well have reached its peak this morning.

[supercane]

Agree, KWT. Looks like strengthening happened in low shear environment between a trough to the west and an anticyclone to the east.

[supercane]

ASCAT caught eastern side of Danielle:

[KWT]

Recon found shows pressure at roughly 942mbs and wind speeds at FL at 117kts, though its a first pass through those winds need to be a little higher to justify the 115kts from the NHC.

[xironman]

Eye doesn't look as clear right now looking at that image Supercane, may well have reached its peak this morning.

She might be able to wrap that deep convection around and take another run at it before the trough starts to really get her.