#16 Postby Chacor » Fri Aug 27, 2010 1:04 am
TCFA:
WTPN21 PGTW 270430
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 160 NM RADIUS OF 15.4N 116.6E WITHIN THE NEXT 6 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CY-
CLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 19 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 270330Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 117.2E. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.5N
118.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 117.2E, APPROXIMATELY 220 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 262214Z 37 GHZ CORIOLIS MICROWAVE IMAGE
REVEAL RAPID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITH CURVED BANDING WRAPPING
INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 270122Z ASCAT PASS
SHOWS AN ASYMETRIC LLCC WITH 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS ALONG THE
SOUTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND 10 TO 15 KNOT WINDS ALONG THE
NORTHWESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. RECENT NEARBY OBSERVATIONS NORTHEAST OF
THE LLCC SHOW WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AT 16 KNOTS (CONFIRMING THE
ASCAT PASS) AND A PRESSURE OF 1005 MB. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF ENHANCED UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE AND LIGHT (10 TO 15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 19 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. DUE TO INCREASED
CONVECTIVE CONSOLIDATION OVER THE LLCC, AND A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
280430Z.//
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