ATL: Ex-Hurricane DANIELLE - Discussion

[KWT]

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.2 / 965.8mb/ 94.8kt

Agreeable

That agrees with Crazy's idea of this being around 95kts, I have to agree with that I don't think its not strengthened since earlier today given the marked improvement in the presentation of the overall system.

[GCANE]

It looks like a new boundary-layer inversion has setup.

This one looks stronger than the one early this morning.

That may keep a lid on firing deep convection.

[cpdaman]

I think the southerly shear is may be driving some of the drier air in and around her SE and East side.....doesn't seem like it would take much dry air intrusion to punch thru the very narrow CDO on parts of the east side...i think her intensity may be a wild card tonite.....also i think danielle will turn a bit more westerly than forecast (tonite) before being picked up by the trough on saturday/sunday. i think she will go more westerly during the overnite thru friday period...due to the steering flow and secondarily having the upper trough slip from the immediate WNW to the more distant SW

[HURAKAN]

Nice sat image

[KWT]

Convection does still look a little on the weak side GCane, esp on the eastern side of the eyewall right now, though there is some decent convection on the western side.

Looks like a classic hurricane though doesn't it!

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[MiamiHurricanes10]

Danielle likely will get upped to a 100kt major hurricane at 5p.m EDT.

[Riptide]

Danielle is looking pretty sweet out there in the Atlantic. I'll definitely save a few high resolution visibles of this beast.

[GCANE]

KWT:

Oh yes, she looks great; especially given the fact she is and will be a fish.

I especially like that little cumulus-nimbus overshoot remnants on the north eyewall.

Can never have enough eyewall hot-towers.

[thetruesms]

KWT:

Oh yes, she looks great; especially given the fact she is and will be a fish.

I especially like that little cumulus-nimbus overshoot remnants on the north eyewall.

Can never have enough eyewall hot-towers.

[img]http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc10/ATL/06L.DANIELLE/vis/geo/1km_zoom/20100826.1945.goes13.x.vis1km_high.06LDANIELLE.90kts-970mb-248N-564W.100pc.jpg[img]

Isn't that the truth. There isn't much that beats a photogenic hurricane in open water

[supercane]

Latest shear map with IR, obs overlayed:

[cycloneye]

From 5 PM Discussion.

SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON INDICATES THAT DANIELLE HAS
DEVELOPED A WELL-DEFINED 20 NM WIDE EYE WITH CLOUD TOPS TO -75C IN
THE NORTHWESTERN EYEWALL. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 18Z WERE
90 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND SINCE THAT TIME THE SATELLITE
APPEARANCE OF THE HURRICANE HAS IMPROVED. THUS...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 95 KT.

[Boriken]

The swell.

http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/waves/latest_run/wna.f012h.2.gif

[KWT]

Well not quite upto a major hurricane but it really wouldn't take much to push it over the boundary to major hurricane status...

[HURAKAN]

She's at the door of major hurricane status. I think the application for the club has already been approved and everything!

[lester]

Maybe watches for bermuda tomorrow? They should at least get ts force winds from this.

[TheBurn]

-

[cpdaman]

The swell.

http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/waves/latest_run/wna.f012h.2.gif

well ya but that only shows the swell period ...not heights!

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=SeaState

[cpdaman]

could someone tell me why

with the current steering flow and now that the upper trough is getting out of the way further SW and pushing from a earlier position just WNW of her (which i believe forced her more NW'erly) .....why she wouldn't turn Almost due westerly tonite?

i think right now she could be (in the process) of turning WNW

[tolakram]

could someone tell me why

with the current steering flow and now that the upper trough is getting out of the way further SW and pushing from a earlier position just WNW of her (which i believe forced her more NW'erly) .....why she wouldn't turn Almost due westerly tonite?

i think right now she could be (in the process) of turning WNW

There is, or will be, strong high pressure over the US east coast right now. What steering flow are you looking at?



Will still move NW for another day, then turn.