Bastardi on the record

[Steve]

http://www.accuweather.com/video/731462 ... eping?.asp

Haven't watched it yet. Let's see.

[x-y-no]

Well, there's quite a lot I strongly agree with there (along with one thing I strongly disagree with - y'all can probably guess what that is.)

I've never found the argument that a warmer climate will cause more hurricanes even remotely compelling. The issue he brings up here of poleward heat transport being the function of tropical systems and the greater warming of the polar region reducing the need for that is one reason for that.

His argument for why we will see a 1950-style late active season makes pretty good sense too.

[Steve]

Alright, so in this video, he goes back to 1950 with similar low pressure up in the northern part of the continent and maritimes which leads to a late season with 8 majors (water temperature profiles are different). There's no block yet in place and the switch isn't on yet as the northern part of the continent has not started cooling but soon should (that's what happens later in the summer). It gets into the idea that there's no reason for systems to incubate because the low pressures that have been circling the NE and Canada have been doing the work. This isn't rocket science and is something those of us not interested in being right but instead who are more interested in the whys and why nots have been discussing (in my case, as recently as today looking at the mid-long range GFS). Some have theorized that the slight difference in temperature between the ocean and the upper atmosphere has caused too much stability. And that might matter. But it's pretty clear that persistent low pressure in the northeast has been the culprit. Why should storms form if there's no reason for them to? Sounds reasonable. It may also help to explain why in 2005 when we also had bath water in the Atlantic, the season took off and kept going (need for redistribution of heat). Further, it probably explains why so many systems have stayed weak despite obvious signs of organization. What else can they do? They can organize (which most Gulf invests have), but they're not going to crank because there is no need for them to do so. Again, that seems pretty reasonable.

It's also something we need to take from the 2010 season so far: With the hot over cold over hot water temperature profile in the western Atlantic, and with low pressure in the northeast and Canada, there is less likelihood that something is going to develop into anything major earlier in the season.

I noticed Joe didn't mention his call for 18-21 storms (though he did say why he felt 1950 stopped at 14, different water temperature profile) but his company has reinforced it. No doubt it's something he's been saying on the Pro Site. So now we wait for development and see if some of these theories pan out or if there's something else out there that hasn't yet been considered. Good video.

[tolakram]

The heat transference references take the wrong tilt I think. Hurricanes don't have to do anything, they just form in favorable conditions. So the low pressure in the north is creating non ideal conditions ... which is probably showing up as stability.

So to me the questions are:

Can we directly relate the stability in the Atlantic to the low pressure in the north?

Do we see any signs this low pressure is ending?

Is this low pressure also responsible for the ULL's 'invading' the Atlantic?

[Javlin]

Well what he mentions makes alot of sense to me more or less the Yin/Yang,good/evil and so on when the balance shifts to much in one direction there will be an opposing force to counter act it.Has been going on since the beginning of time.

[Steve]

Great post tolak. My opinions:

>>The heat transference references take the wrong tilt I think. Hurricanes don't have to do anything, they just form in favorable conditions. So the low pressure in the north is creating non ideal conditions ... which is probably showing up as stability.

This is where I'm not sure. I'm not a physicist (someone around here is - Aric?), but is it a chicken/egg thing? I'm not qualified to go into depth on that, but do they just form in favorable conditions or do they form as part of the heat transfer and attempts by nature to balance? I don't know and couldn't begin to speculate. Either they do form for a purpose or the purpose forms them - if that makes sense. Because in my earlier post, I noted that most of the invests that we've dealt with, despite being essentially non-classified, have had pretty nice cirulations. They just never got strong. Is it because they didn't have to or because the stability kept them weaker? That could go back and forth forever.

>>Can we directly relate the stability in the Atlantic to the low pressure in the north?

I can't. But certainly it appears that is at least a contributing factor.

>>Do we see any signs this low pressure is ending?

Another great question. There have been some hints in recent long-range runs of the GFS that indicate a pattern reversal up there. But then you look at today's with the basin-wide ridge of high pressure and a low on top of that barely displaced east of where they are now which would indicate no. I don't have access or links to the long range ECMWF monthly predictions, so I'm not sure where the ECMWF is going. But I did put a link to the running 30 or 90 day 500mb heights from the polar view in the "Remainder of Season" thread a few days ago. It indicates that a change was coming.

>>Is this low pressure also responsible for the ULL's 'invading' the Atlantic?

I would guess no on that. I think that's a fuction of the early season and La Nina. I'm not talking about the semi-perm TUTT, more about the migrating east to west circular lows.

Great thing is about most of this stuff is we don't have to wait 2 or 3 months to see anymore. It's August 20th. If there are no indications of the pattern reversal by say the first or second week of September, we're not going to see a bunch of majors suddenly spin up. That's for sure.

[lonelymike]

Nice posts Steve and Toko. Very informative. Looks like some of JB's passion has rubbed off

[Steve]

Thanks Mike. I give him credit for being willing to teeter on the edge. He, NOAA and CSU have thrown down their gauntlets. If he busts this, it's going to cost him relevancy for a long time. If I had to bet money, I think they're all a bit high. Caveat is that there should be plenty of surprises in store over the next 6-7 weeks.

I think that what I appreciate most about his discussion was the explanation on how the pattern flips this year. I put out there a while back that I didn't expect the on-switch to work like it did in '05 or '08 where early season cold front(s) snuck down to the Gulf and lulled a bunch of posters (and local mets here in N.O.) into thinking that might be it for the season. Maybe that happens again this year, but maybe not. If the block shows up in the NE and replaces that low pressure, with some of what the GFS and ECMWF are indicating ridge-wise across the Atlantic, it might be something a little more subtle. We'll see. Early on this year I was talking about the circular lows and their movement and how that indicated a western bias year. But that's only part of the story. In seasons where the general track ideas are laid out, there may also be a rogue storm or two and certainly a secondary (or primary) focus for tracks. Colin's track had aspects of a couple of the analog years. And if you go back to 1950 (as per the video), 1998, 1995, 1999, you see a fairly high number of hurricanes those seasons. '95 was around 11 out of 19, '98 was 10 out of 14 and '99 was 8 out of 12. I checked 1950 on wiki, and it showed 11 out of 13. So far in 2010, it's 1 out of 3. In order to meet that ratio (60-83% named storms becoming hurricanes), we would have to see at least 9 or 10 hurricanes. Like always, we'll see if that happens.

The following is not official and doesn't mean anything.

Now that we're heading into the prime of the season, I guess it's time to put something out there. Looking at the analogs (CSU, Impact, Accu, etc.) it seems like there are several different threat areas to be considered. North Carolina looks like it should have at least a couple of close calls. Certainly that means the seaboard could be in play for at least some brush-by action. Florida and the Bahamas look like sitting ducks. The Caribbean should see tense moments with some of the long trackers including the potential for a late season threat in Latin America. The Northern Gulf Coast is clearly in play. Judging by some of the notable analog storms (Georges, Erin, Opal, Katrina, etc.), threat looks more likely to be MS/AL/NWFL, but LA has been a magnet for weaker stuff so far this year and could see more action. I also wouldn't be surprised to see another threat over toward Northern Mexico/Texas.

You might be thinking, "Damn Steve. How could you be wrong? You pretty much covered everywhere." Maybe so. But I think the threats are real for all of those places if the storms materialize. We could be in for a lot of action in the southeastern U.S.. Based on what I'm saying, worst-case would probably be near-historic but well short of 2005. Let's see.

[SouthFloridawx]

The heat transference references take the wrong tilt I think. Hurricanes don't have to do anything, they just form in favorable conditions. So the low pressure in the north is creating non ideal conditions ... which is probably showing up as stability.

So to me the questions are:

Can we directly relate the stability in the Atlantic to the low pressure in the north?

Do we see any signs this low pressure is ending?

Is this low pressure also responsible for the ULL's 'invading' the Atlantic?

I think that since the low pressure is present and since the low pressure is not a constant feature... if the low pressure were to lift out and be replaced naturally by high pressure... that the ULL's would probably die down as well. Now this is just my POV, but it seems like when the pattern is farther south and we have east coast troughing, that we have more ULL's. Maybe this is because the close to the source of the low pressure, the more low pressure area's that you have nearest to it.

[Decomdoug]

Here They Come

Joe says "Focus, Focus, its all about Focus"
Sounds like Karate Kid # 4

http://www.accuweather.com/video/594956 ... nes%29.asp

[ninel conde]

A very nice video. I know he said in may storms would be blocked from recurving. he may have missed on that.

[Steve]

http://www.accuweather.com/video/731462 ... hoices.asp

Here's a free update from today. Looking like a hot next week on the coast with big *** waves. 4 more waves across Africa that could easily follow in the footsteps of D-E-Ftobe. If they all pop, that would be 7 straight Cape Verde systems. Hopefully they all stay out to sea, but you never know. Joe thinks after 7-10 days, the threat gets farther west for a while. Many are shooing that theory away, and there is model support right now that nothing much is going to change. But seasonal cooling will begin to do its work, and if systems are on the map, then we could see some true tropical threats.

[RL3AO]

He posted this image today on the pro site (which I can use cause he got it from the CPC)

200mb forecast



Notice how there is sinking air in the western Atlantic now, but by next week the entire Atlantic becomes more favorable with upward motion increasing over the Western Atlantic.

[tolakram]

Citizens upgrade.

[Blown Away]

Good stuff Steve! Recent JB video's fail to reinforce his US landfall #'s. He uses many analog years w/ many fish recurves so he must see something different in 2010 that will allow for so many landfalls. They can't all come from the Caribbean, he had to have anticipated some landfalls from the east which is hard to see w/ that persistent trough.
7 - Total US Landfalls
5- Hurricanes
2-3 Majors

[RL3AO]

Good stuff Steve! Recent JB video's fail to reinforce his US landfall #'s. He uses many analog years w/ many fish recurves so he must see something different in 2010 that will allow for so many landfalls. They can't all come from the Caribbean, he had to have anticipated some landfalls from the east which is hard to see w/ that persistent trough.
7 - Total US Landfalls
5- Hurricanes
2-3 Majors

For the record, Bastardi's numbers are number of US impacts, not necessarily landfalls. Alex was a hurricane impact on the US, even though it made landfall in Mexico. A storm like Katrina is two impacts. A hurricane impact on Florida and a major impact on the gulf coast.

[Blown Away]

From Accuweather: Bastardi is forecasting seven landfalls. Five will be hurricanes, and two or three of the hurricanes will be major landfalls for the U.S.

Technically Alex would not count and to get a 2 for 1 hurricane landfall it would most likely have to come from the east and thats hard to see w/ the persistent trough in the Atlantic.

[RL3AO]

From Accuweather: Bastardi is forecasting seven landfalls. Five will be hurricanes, and two or three of the hurricanes will be major landfalls for the U.S.

Technically Alex would not count and to get a 2 for 1 hurricane landfall it would most likely have to come from the east and thats hard to see w/ the persistent trough in the Atlantic.

He made it pretty clear in his videos that he's talking about impacts and not landfalls. Alex was a hurricane impact.

[StormClouds63]

If I'm not mistaken, 1950 is one of J.B.'s analog years. Taking a look at the tracks, he might be on to something:

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... index.html

[Blown Away]

From Accuweather: Bastardi is forecasting seven landfalls. Five will be hurricanes, and two or three of the hurricanes will be major landfalls for the U.S.

Technically Alex would not count and to get a 2 for 1 hurricane landfall it would most likely have to come from the east and thats hard to see w/ the persistent trough in the Atlantic.

He made it pretty clear in his videos that he's talking about impacts and not landfalls. Alex was a hurricane impact.

Maybe he said that in a recent video, but his preseason forecast says "landfalls" not "impacts"!
http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/news/s ... 2010-1.asp