ATL: EARL - Models

[SFLcane]

Comes close to NC but recurves into the atl.

[HurrMark]

Recurve starts in earnest around 192...

[Aric Dunn]

yeah looks like a close call but that is very far out.. the pressing matter is .. does it miss the weakness and the trend from all the models is farther west and now the 12z GFS misses it. so the next 3 days are going to rather intriguing especially for the islands.

[AdamFirst]

Here's something to remember: each run, the turn to the north gets more west along the line. Not alot of ocean left before it turns north. Plus that run should still be a nasty day for the Northern Leewards.

[cycloneye]

Much closer to East Coast of U.S.

[KWT]

VERY close to the perfect track to rake the East coast...maybe a couple of hundred miles west and the track and tilt of the upper trough would bring Earl the whole way up the east coast...but its not quite there on this run, afterall thats an exceptional set-up.

[HurrMark]

yeah looks like a close call but that is very far out.. the pressing matter is .. does it miss the weakness and the trend from all the models is farther west and now the 12z GFS misses it. so the next 3 days are going to rather intriguing especially for the islands.

Even if it misses the weakness, we are in a progressive pattern, so it will have to contend with another deep trough later next week. Unless the pattern slows down, it will be very difficult for it to make a direct hit.

Recurves into fishland by 204-216...looks like it will stay offshore Canada as well. Fiona the Fish follows in suit.

By the way, long range, there is a MAJOR weakness in the central-western Atlantic. As Frank2 says, the clock keeps ticking...

[Aric Dunn]

VERY close to the perfect track to rake the East coast...maybe a couple of hundred miles west and the track and tilt of the upper trough would bring Earl the whole way up the east coast...but its not quite there on this run, afterall thats an exceptional set-up.

yeah if you notice (although very far out) the 500mb reflection of the trough is not very amplified does not extend very far south.

[Brent]

Wow, if it turns just a bit later the entire east coast gets slammed.

[plasticup]

Wow, if it turns just a bit later the entire east coast gets slammed.

That would take a very precise path, though. Super long-shot, given where we are right now.

[Brent]

Wow, if it turns just a bit later the entire east coast gets slammed.

That would take a very precise path, though. Super long-shot, given where we are right now.

Oh I agree, it's a longshot, but the idea is on the table.

Could easily go fishing too. Lot more uncertainty with this one.

[Vortex]

Anyone have the cmc or nogaps 12z?

[KWT]

Even if it misses the weakness, we are in a progressive pattern, so it will have to contend with another deep trough later next week. Unless the pattern slows down, it will be very difficult for it to make a direct hit.

Recurves into fishland by 204-216...looks like it will stay offshore Canada as well. Fiona the Fish follows in suit.

By the way, long range, there is a MAJOR weakness in the central-western Atlantic. As Frank2 says, the clock keeps ticking...

Yeah true we are in a progressive pattern this year but then again sometimes system can sneak through, esp if this one stays as far south as it can get by 60W..of course it could just as easily be scooped up by Danielle and that'll be the end of that...

As for your 2nd point, our best friend will I suspect become the worst enemy once the Caribbean starts to get things going by mid-late September, which have no doubts, it will, its a near certainty in a La Nina...and a trough in a progressive pattern will just help to lift anything out down there.

[Ivanhater]

Can't get much closer to the Islands..

[Ivanhater]

HWRF

[KWT]

If the track was just a little further west then you'd probably get a direct hit on one of the Islands though the weakness left by Danielle we may get lucky.

Just backs up my views that we are real lucky to have the weakness in place from Danielle otherwise this one would be a huge worry...

HWRF looking like its just starting to lift to the WNW at 120hrs.

[ConvergenceZone]

yeah looks like a close call but that is very far out.. the pressing matter is .. does it miss the weakness and the trend from all the models is farther west and now the 12z GFS misses it. so the next 3 days are going to rather intriguing especially for the islands.

Even if it misses the weakness, we are in a progressive pattern, so it will have to contend with another deep trough later next week. Unless the pattern slows down, it will be very difficult for it to make a direct hit.

Recurves into fishland by 204-216...looks like it will stay offshore Canada as well. Fiona the Fish follows in suit.

By the way, long range, there is a MAJOR weakness in the central-western Atlantic. As Frank2 says, the clock keeps ticking...

I wouldn't concern yourself about recurves anyway, since most CV storms(sometimes all)
recurve every season. It's the carib and gulf storms which will develop in Sep and Oct
that are going to get us....

[Typhoon_Willie]

Agree with CZ's post and I hope that Earl turns north early enough that the NE Caribbean Islands are spared the heavy rains and possible mudslides etc. According to the models that may happen but any delay that occurs could be a great difference in the outcome.

[KWT]

It should be noted the chances to the NE Caribbean and esp the E.coast threat is still probably the least likely solution for now until we get more model support for such an evolution.

For now though can't hurt to keep an eye on it, esp with the track not being that far away really...

But the models overall have been really good bar maybe Alex in terms of agreement with the broad trend.

[ILVrecurves]

I'm really hoping this one stays well east of the islands and the east coast, we don't need any hurricanes impacting land at all. Hurricanes should be enjoyed for there beauty, not for their destruction.