ATL: Ex-Hurricane DANIELLE - Discussion

[KWT]

Looking increasingly good there Hurakan, I'm not sure whether the NHC will go right to 100kts but it may not be far off judging from the Vis imagery if nothing else.

[TheBurn]

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[KWT]

Those are some real classic images there Theburn...hmmm the NHC may well end up going to 100kts afterall!

[CrazyC83]

Looks to be a stadium effect now in the storm...undergoing rapid deepening?

[KWT]

This is easily the best its ever looked thats for sure Crazy, not sure its undergoing RI though just yet, but its strengthening I'm sure, possibly has a shot at becoming a category-4 if it can keep the eyewall maintained.

[plasticup]

That eye is much better defined than it was a couple hours ago. 100 kts wouldn't surprise me at all.

[HURAKAN]

we're likely looking at the 1st major of the season

[neospaceblue]

ADT estimates keep it a Category 2, although I think it's a major right now. I do wonder if this could hit Category 4 with its current condition, the visible image reminds me of a few Category 4 hurricanes, especially Gustav.

[CrazyC83]

Storms with such large eyes sometimes have trouble bringing their winds to the surface (think Isabel as an example). If Recon flew into it, I would think it would find flight-level winds supporting strong Cat 3 or even Cat 4, but not sure about surface winds.

From the Bill TCR, and it certainly applies here as well:

Data from most of the reconnaissance flights, primarily near the time when this peak wind was measured, indicated that the surface winds were lower than the standard 90% adjustment from the flight level (as revealed in Fig 2). It has been noted in previous hurricanes with large eyes (e.g., Isabel of 2003) that the standard 90% reduction does not always hold and this appears to be the case with Bill.

[Buck]

Gorgeous! I love the long, little tail swooping down to the south.

[HURAKAN]

good times in the Atlantic

[Aric Dunn]

Its very likely a Major Hurricane now...

[Brent]

Its very likely a Major Hurricane now...

Agree. Nice stadium effect.

[KWT]

Yeah this looks like a major hurricane to me now as well, its eye has really become better defined in the last 6hrs or so.

[plasticup]

Hard to believe that this is the same storm we watched collapse to a messy TS on Tuesday.

[CrazyC83]

Could they jump all the way to T6.0 on the estimates? Although if they do, I would only bring it up to about 105 kt based on the ADT and the large eye situation mentioned above.

[cheezyWXguy]

Maybe Im crazy, but the lack of deep convection makes me wonder about this not being as strong as some on here mention.

[CrazyC83]

Maybe Im crazy, but the lack of deep convection makes me wonder about this not being as strong as some on here mention.

My thinking too. I'd go about 5-10 kt lower than the mean of the Dvorak estimates that come in. If they are consensus T5.5, I would only bring the intensity up to 95 kt. I'd want to see a T6.0 by at least one agency before bringing it up to a major.

[cwachal]

look at that convection burst to the NW I wonder if that will tighten up the eye more... could see a run at cat 4 tonight

[plasticup]

Maybe Im crazy, but the lack of deep convection makes me wonder about this not being as strong as some on here mention.

If that flare on the northwest side persists and wraps around would you be more confident?