ATL: EARL - Models

[hurricanetrack]

I hear ya. We all see that WSW bend it takes, and yet it STILL goes right up 60W. Still far enough out in time for lots to change.

[stormchazer]

Wasn't lakeland the epicenter in florida for all the storms in 04?

More Polk County. Wishful thinking on my part. Latest model run supports fish again so maybe the force field is working this time. Let me correct myself because certainly, Bermuda could be at risk.

[Wx_Warrior]

EURO 0z...144H

[supercane]

So far it looks like both GFS and ECMWF showing Earl to make a more definitive recurve than Danielle.

[Wx_Warrior]

Yep & little sis "fiona" too.

[supercane]

Earl model tracks from easternuswx.com shows consensus is recurve:

GFS ensemble members:

[supercane]

Also 00Z GFS right of earlier runs. Map from NCEP/EMC Cyclogenesis Page:

[KWT]

This is what I've been saying the weakness is pretty strong and its just scooping up everything near 60W...its just like 1995 in that respect.

Still enough time for changes but a recurve looking more likely today.

[OURAGAN]

I don't think so, May be a ridge will build between Danielle and Earl like Luis in 1995, forcing it to go straight west

[KWT]

Still with Luis it curved up pretty close to 60-65W, so I see no reason why this one won't follow the same trend as Danielle did, esp given there is troughing still over Canada, totally the opposite pattern you need for a landfalling storm.

06z GFS suggests another threat to Bermuda again but thats a long way off yet.

[OURAGAN]

Yes but, It crossed St Marteen and St Barthelemy in the Northern leewards Islands

[gatorcane]

My confidence continues to increase on this recurving east of the United States probably around 60-65W or so......and more than likely it will pass NE of the Leewards. My reasons are earlier on in this thread.

[cycloneye]

12z Tropical Models

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 261302
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1302 UTC THU AUG 26 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
TROPICAL CYCLONE EARL (AL072010) 20100826 1200 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100826  1200   100827  0000   100827  1200   100828  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    14.8N  36.3W   15.5N  39.1W   16.1N  42.0W   17.0N  44.9W
BAMD    14.8N  36.3W   15.7N  38.6W   16.7N  41.3W   17.6N  44.2W
BAMM    14.8N  36.3W   15.8N  38.9W   16.8N  41.9W   17.9N  45.2W
LBAR    14.8N  36.3W   15.6N  39.1W   16.3N  42.2W   17.2N  45.6W
SHIP        40KTS          46KTS          56KTS          65KTS
DSHP        40KTS          46KTS          56KTS          65KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100828  1200   100829  1200   100830  1200   100831  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    18.2N  48.3W   21.2N  55.7W   24.2N  60.3W   25.8N  64.8W
BAMD    18.4N  47.3W   20.0N  53.5W   21.9N  58.5W   23.6N  62.1W
BAMM    18.8N  48.7W   20.7N  55.5W   22.6N  60.0W   23.7N  62.9W
LBAR    17.8N  49.1W   19.3N  55.4W   21.1N  58.5W   23.5N  61.2W
SHIP        74KTS          84KTS          87KTS          95KTS
DSHP        74KTS          84KTS          87KTS          95KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  14.8N LONCUR =  36.3W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR =  15KT
LATM12 =  14.5N LONM12 =  33.3W DIRM12 = 276DEG SPDM12 =  15KT
LATM24 =  14.2N LONM24 =  30.3W
WNDCUR =   40KT RMAXWD =   40NM WNDM12 =   35KT
CENPRS = 1004MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD =  200NM SDEPTH =   M
RD34NE =   50NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =  50NM
 
$$


[KWT]

Well the models still in pretty solid agreement of somewhere between 55-65W...and its going to head into some well above normal waters if it stays close to that track there as well so a major wouldn't at all be shocking with this one.

[HurrMark]

Yeah, I think this will become a fish...hard to argue against it at this point. And based on the pattern, I think anything else that comes down the road over the next couple of weeks will become one as well.

If there is anything around 30N 60W, I would imagine that it would have a very topsy turvy time over the next couple of weeks.

[cycloneye]

Ivan,ROCK etc, what about the more south NAM?

[AdamFirst]

What is up with the NAM...looks like it has Danielle, Earl, Fiona and Gaston all in the picture

[sfwx]

Part of the 11:00 Discussion: 8/26/2010


THE CENTER OF EARL HAS BEEN REPOSITIONED ABOUT 30 NMI SOUTH OF THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND FORECAST TRACK BASED ON A BLEND OF VISIBLE
AND MICROWAVE FIXES. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A 24-HOUR
AVERAGE OF 275/15...AFTER SMOOTHING THROUGH ALL THE WIGGLES AND
WOBBLES IN THE FIXES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK WAS SHIFTED SOUTH
OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY DUE IN PART TO THE MORE SOUTHWARD INITIAL
POSITION. OTHERWISE...THERE REMAINS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE
PREVIOUS TRACK REASONING. EARL IS EXPECTED TO MOVE STEADILY WEST TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS AND THEN GRADUALLY TURN
NORTHWESTWARD AND SLOW DOWN AS THE CYCLONE APPROACHES A WEAKNESS IN
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. THIS
WEAKNESS IN THE STEERING FLOW IS THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF HURRICANE
DANIELLE AND A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH FORECAST TO CAPTURE AND LIFT OUT
THAT HURRICANE TO THE NORTHEAST. IF DANIELLE RECURVES FASTER THAN
CURRENTLY EXPECTED...WHICH THE UKMET AND ECMWF ARE HINTING AT...
THEN THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF EARL COULD BUILD BACK IN SOONER AND
KEEP EARL ON A SLOWER WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THAN INDICATED BY
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK. THE ADVISORY TRACK LIES ALONG THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE TIGHTLY PACKED MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE AND
SIMILAR TO THE SPEED OF THE CONSENSUS MODEL...TVCN.

FORECASTER STEWART

[plasticup]

Yeah, I think this will become a fish...hard to argue against it at this point.

Hard to argue against that point? Let me give it a shot. Right now, there are two likely scenarios. Firstly, Earl may catch Danielle's trough and recurve. The models favor this scenario, with most of them bringing the storm within 100 miles of Bermuda. Obviously, with 7-day model errors typically being greater than 500 miles, that isn't a clear-cut "fish". Secondly, Earl may miss the trough. The models are trending away from this scenario, but it's still within the realm of possibility. This would boot Earl south and west, into the Caribbean, Florida, East Coast, of even the Gulf of Mexico. Again, obviously not a fish.

I think people bandy the term "fish" around far too often. In the North Atlantic, fish storms are exceedingly rare. Unless we are talking about an eastern Atlantic 2-day storm sheared to pieces over the open ocean, it will probably threaten land eventually.

[KWT]

The track still doesn't look totally clear cut that its going to miss the islands, a track south of the models at the moment would certainly need them to pay very close attention.

Anyway 12z GFS coming out, heading due west between 24-48hrs...man I still think we are sooo lucky to have Danielle there otherwise it'd have been much tighter for sure.