ATL: Ex-Hurricane DANIELLE - Discussion

[JPM]

ozonepete

I understand; thanks.

[ozonepete]

The models that are bringing the system back to the west are of great concern to me. What are the chances of Danielle heading back to the west and impacting North Carolina-Virginia-Delmarva area?

As of now they are almost zero, so relax. Just look at the NHC forecast track and their wide envelope on uncertainty. North Carolina, Virginia, (and the rest of the U.S. east coast) are not in it AT ALL. Just keep watching it here but especially follow the NHC advisories. They are REALLY REALLY good at forecast track.

[ozonepete]

ozonepete

I understand; thanks.

[JPM]

ozonepete

We're more then good, we have a large and strengthening hurricane to track.

[CrazyC83]

Current Intensity Analysis




UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 26 AUG 2010 Time : 031500 UTC
Lat : 22:35:07 N Lon : 53:52:18 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.7 / 975.9mb/ 82.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.7 5.6 5.6

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.5mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 21 km

Center Temp : -13.9C Cloud Region Temp : -62.7C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[ozonepete]

ozonepete

We're more then good, we have a large and strengthening hurricane to track.

Yes, we love following these storms, for whatever our reasons. And there's Earl, which looks like it could have a much more southern track. (But that's a different thread.) Anyway, let's see what happens with Danielle. I'm still convinced this will make major (Cat 3) stat but will not even reach Bermuda. There is a VERY strong trough moving off of the Atlantic coast by late Friday.

Oh lord once again this is just my opinion!

[JPM]

I do not work at the NHC or any other official organization this is my opinion.

My forecasts are significantly more accurate then the NHC and have been for years, also the NHC forecasts are 300 nautical miles in error, on average, sometimes worse. I am not suggesting going out and buying wood to board up your windows, however I would suggest that you moniotor the progress of this hurricane. Anyone that says that you shouldn't monitor the progress of danielle is living on Pluto. Don't worry to the point that you have a panic attack, just watch the hurricane and see what happens.

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

ozonepete

We're more then good, we have a large and strengthening hurricane to track.

Yes, we love following these storms, for whatever our reasons. And there's Earl, which looks like it could have a much more southern track. (But that's a different thread.) Anyway, let's see what happens with Danielle. I'm still convinced this will make major (Cat 3) stat but will not even reach Bermuda. There is a VERY strong trough moving off of the Atlantic coast by late Friday.

I really have to question the strength of the trough/cold front that will be moving off the east coast! I am up in Maine and here is the forecast for tomorrow through the weekend.

Clouds and fog will break to mostly sunny skies along with seasonably mild temperatures today. A weak cold front will move through the region during the afternoon with very little fanfare. Most will experience a round of clouds with only the chance for a shower with this feature. Sunshine will dominate the sky going forward. I have no rain in the 7-day forecast. A late summer warm-up is in the cards late weekend and through next week. Enjoy!

So another words if it's strong then it must be something farther south because up here it will be weak!

[supercane]

I do not work at the NHC or any other official organization this is my opinion.

My forecasts are significantly more accurate then the NHC and have been for years...

As ozonepete says, the NHC is good at its job, and its forecast has been good thus far for Danielle. Anyone can say "moniotor (sic) the progress of this hurricane," but this is an empty truism of watching the tropics. Show me the data, resume, or publications and then I'll believe you. Describe your appraisal of the synoptic situation and why it differs from NHC, and I at least can say you have a rationale for your opinion. For now,

[ozonepete]

ozonepete

We're more then good, we have a large and strengthening hurricane to track.

Yes, we love following these storms, for whatever our reasons. And there's Earl, which looks like it could have a much more southern track. (But that's a different thread.) Anyway, let's see what happens with Danielle. I'm still convinced this will make major (Cat 3) stat but will not even reach Bermuda. There is a VERY strong trough moving off of the Atlantic coast by late Friday.

I really have to question the strength of the trough/cold front that will be moving off the east coast! I am up in Maine and here is the forecast for tomorrow through the weekend.

Clouds and fog will break to mostly sunny skies along with seasonably mild temperatures today. A weak cold front will move through the region during the afternoon with very little fanfare. Most will experience a round of clouds with only the chance for a shower with this feature. Sunshine will dominate the sky going forward. I have no rain in the 7-day forecast. A late summer warm-up is in the cards late weekend and through next week. Enjoy!

So another words if it's strong then it must be something farther south because up here it will be weak!

You have to look at the UPPER air charts . I was talking about the trough, not the cold front, which often come in with little fanfare. Hurricanes are steered by winds in the upper atmosphere,; a good proxy is 500mb. That's where you need to look for the winds that steer them.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[JPM]

I do not work at the NHC or any other official organization, the following is my opinion.

I'll be back in a little while, I'm going to check out this trough and the high...By the way, I have seen a deep trough with a mid-level jet diving to southwest Georgia and up the east coast, moving east and with a weaker hurricane that was farther north moving west it looked impossible for a U.S. landfall. In fact Jim Cantore said "I just got a call from a guy saying we were holding out on the forecast to get higher ratings"....man he was mad, real mad. Anyway that hurricane strengthened and made landfall, devestating a large area. Never, never count out a storm at this time of year especially this far off.

[JPM]

Before I go; the water temperature on the southeastern New Jersey coast is between 81 and 83 degrees; that could mean alot of problems at some point.

[JPM]

SUPERCANE

Watch my forecasts, pay attention to the accuracy that God gifted me with.

[Cyclenall]

I do not work at the NHC or any other official organization, the following is my opinion.

I'll be back in a little while, I'm going to check out this trough and the high...By the way, I have seen a deep trough with a mid-level jet diving to southwest Georgia and up the east coast, moving east and with a weaker hurricane that was farther north moving west it looked impossible for a U.S. landfall. In fact Jim Cantore said "I just got a call from a guy saying we were holding out on the forecast to get higher ratings"....man he was mad, real mad. Anyway that hurricane strengthened and made landfall, devestating a large area. Never, never count out a storm at this time of year especially this far off.

Which storm was that again?

I found it amusing that the LBAR "model" was mentioned in the 5:00 pm Danielle discussion, I think that might be the first time I've seen it there.

[TwisterFanatic]

SUPERCANE

Watch my forecasts, pay attention to the accuracy that God gifted me with.

[neospaceblue]

SUPERCANE

Watch my forecasts, pay attention to the accuracy that God gifted me with.

*facepalm*

I would believe it if you were around during Vince, Wilma, Humberto or Fay.

[StormGuy]

SUPERCANE

Watch my forecasts, pay attention to the accuracy that God gifted me with.

Who are you and what makes your forecasts so great?

[JPM]

Cyclenall

Emily.

[Kingarabian]

I do not work at the NHC or any other official organization this is my opinion.

My forecasts are significantly more accurate then the NHC and have been for years, also the NHC forecasts are 300 nautical miles in error, on average, sometimes worse.