ATL: Ex Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion

[JTD]

I just have to remark that the NHC 5 day forecast for Earl at 5 pm got my attention in a big way. That track hardly screams fish at all. In fact, it brings back memories of memorable CV hurricane tracks.

[latitude_20]

I just have to remark that the NHC 5 day forecast for Earl at 5 pm got my attention in a big way. That track hardly screams fish at all. In fact, it brings back memories of memorable CV hurricane tracks.

Couldn't agree more. Earl will bear careful watching.

[Vortmax1]

Good luck to all our friends in the islands regarding Earl.
I have no further need to comment until the island threat has passed.

And good luck to those brave enough to comment now.

[Gustywind]

Good luck to all our friends in the islands regarding Earl.
I have no further need to comment until the island threat has passed.

And good luck to those brave enough to comment now.

Tkanks for your very nice post . We follow Earl very carefully, keeping our fingers for all the Leewards but especially the Northern.

[Gustywind]

Interresting discussion from Crown Weather:
Tropical Weather Discussion
Issued: Wednesday, August 25, 2010 630 pm EDT/530 pm CDT

http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=325

Discussion

Tropical Storm Earl:
We now have Tropical Storm Earl in the far eastern Atlantic. Satellite imagery this afternoon showed this system becoming better organized with each passing hour and with the forecast for favorable environmental conditions for the next few days, I expect steady intensification to hurricane strength by Friday.

Earl is tracking due west at a forward speed of 16 mph. The global models forecast a ridge of high pressure will extend westward from Africa to 60 West Longitude. This high pressure ridge will keep Earl on a west to west-northwest course right into this weekend. It should be noted that the model guidance has shifted to the south today and all interests in the northern Leeward Islands should keep close tabs on the progress of Earl, especially with the fact that the high pressure ridge extends to about 60 West Longitude, so it could be a very close call for the northern Leeward Islands.

New Disclaimer: All forecasts herein are made to the best ability of the forecaster. However, due to standard forecasting error, these forecasts cannot be guaranteed. Any action or inaction taken by users of this forecast is the sole responsibility of that user.

[CronkPSU]

I just have to remark that the NHC 5 day forecast for Earl at 5 pm got my attention in a big way. That track hardly screams fish at all. In fact, it brings back memories of memorable CV hurricane tracks.

Couldn't agree more. Earl will bear careful watching.

indeed!

[KWT]

The only thing I will say is this reminds me of the early days of Bill when the ECM called for a sharper recurve whilst the GFS kept plowing Bill towards the islands or a little north of the islands and in the end the ECM won out, so long way to go yet before we should get too nervous of the risk....

Had this formed 10 degrees further west the threat to the Islands would be pretty large, as it is its a lesser threat but still one that needs attention!

[Ivanhater]

The only thing I will say is this reminds me of the early days of Bill when the ECM called for a sharper recurve whilst the GFS kept plowing Bill towards the islands or a little north of the islands and in the end the ECM won out, so long way to go yet before we should get too nervous of the risk....

Had this formed 10 degrees further west the threat to the Islands would be pretty large, as it is its a lesser threat but still one that needs attention!

You have to be kidding. Go back and take a look how far south and west the Euro moved in just 24 hours. There is no lesser threat to the Islands at all right now. In fact models have been trending TOWARD the Islands.

12z Euro yesterday



12z Euro today



Regardless, you should know how large model error is in this range, especially with models within close range of the Islands.

[KWT]

Actually thats my bad Ivanhater, I didn't realise the eCM was quite as close as that!

Still no doubt the Islands do need to watch this one... its only a little bit to the north and any slight shift southwards and we could have a pretty big threat for sure.

I'm not gonna poo-poo this one like I've been doing with Danielle in terms of recurve, there is enough uncertainty with the pattern and enough ridging in the central Atlantic for this one to be taken seriously.

[bvigal]

It is still a long way, and a lot of ocean. Since 5pm I've been thinking of my girlfriend here. Her son's wedding is next week, on mainland, planned for months (you know how that is), people flying in from everywhere. She's booked out of here Monday because she had commitments here this weekend. If we get a storm Monday, the little planes that can land at our airport won't fly. There are 2 sizes, 19seats and 41 seats. They usually substitute the smaller ones in the summer, when there are less tourists. There are less than 10 flights a day. A lot of people who live here go on holiday in aug or sept, so seats are still booked pretty full. So question is, if she waits until Friday to decide, she likely won't get a seat on Sunday. Or should she change her flight tomorrow, before it's even clear if storm might come this way (and everyone else tries to get a seat), just to be on the safe side and not risk missing her own son's wedding? I know she's going to call and ask me what I think, and I'm dreading that!

[caribepr]

It is still a long way, and a lot of ocean. Since 5pm I've been thinking of my girlfriend here. Her son's wedding is next week, on mainland, planned for months (you know how that is), people flying in from everywhere. She's booked out of here Monday because she had commitments here this weekend. If we get a storm Monday, the little planes that can land at our airport won't fly. There are 2 sizes, 19seats and 41 seats. They usually substitute the smaller ones in the summer, when there are less tourists. There are less than 10 flights a day. A lot of people who live here go on holiday in aug or sept, so seats are still booked pretty full. So question is, if she waits until Friday to decide, she likely won't get a seat on Sunday. Or should she change her flight tomorrow, before it's even clear if storm might come this way (and everyone else tries to get a seat), just to be on the safe side and not risk missing her own son's wedding? I know she's going to call and ask me what I think, and I'm dreading that!

I've had to leave early for a stateside flight (twice) due to a potential storm disrupting service. I kept asking the guys ferry and airport, what should I do? And they all said...well, MJ, we can't predict the weather...but I'd tell my wife, go now. I did, there was no storm...it cost more (a night in a hotel in San Juan) and that was lousy but as we know, it could have gone the other way and I would have missed three flights...

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track

AL, 07, 2010082600, , BEST, 0, 146N, 328W, 35, 1006, TS

Remains at 35kts.

[hurricaneCW]

How favorable are the conditions with this one, Any big bursts of shear, dry air, other. I'm seeing some wind shear and dry air around. Probably a very slow strengthening trend, which in part, would keep it from curving more to the north. I'm hoping it holds off on significant development until around 60W.

[Gustywind]

Latest from SSD: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/tdpositions.html
DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
25/2345 UTC 14.5N 32.7W T2.0/2.5 07L -- Atlantic

[KWT]

Models seem to suggest generally only modest strengthening for the next few days, so probably a fairly slow but steady developer from the looks of things.

[Gustywind]

From NRL site: http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc1 ... atest.html
20100826.0015.07LEARL.35kts-1006mb-143N-315W.79pc.jpg

[bvigal]

I've had to leave early for a stateside flight (twice) due to a potential storm disrupting service. I kept asking the guys ferry and airport, what should I do? And they all said...well, MJ, we can't predict the weather...but I'd tell my wife, go now. I did, there was no storm...it cost more (a night in a hotel in San Juan) and that was lousy but as we know, it could have gone the other way and I would have missed three flights...

So MJ, can I have her call you? LOL!

Yes, see both some increasing shear and some dry air NW of Earl. Maybe the models knew that already, I don't know. My instinct is always to root for gradual strengthening, no delays, for a more northerly track, but I know every one is different. The instinct is unreliable.

[cycloneye]

LATCUR = 14.6N LONCUR = 32.8W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 14KT

Moving west at 275 degrees.

[chrisjslucia]

How favorable are the conditions with this one, Any big bursts of shear, dry air, other. I'm seeing some wind shear and dry air around. Probably a very slow strengthening trend, which in part, would keep it from curving more to the north. I'm hoping it holds off on significant development until around 60W.

Why are you hoping that?

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 252354
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED AUG 25 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EARL AT 25/2100 UTC IS NEAR 14.4N
32.2W...OR ABOUT 450 NM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS...MOVING W AT 14 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS HAVE
INCREASED TO 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KTS CLASSIFYING THE SYSTEM
AS A TROPICAL STORM. EARL IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE
NEXT 48 HRS AND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS
N OF THE CENTER FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN 30W-33W...WITH SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 12N-17N BETWEEN
32W-35W. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC AND THE LATEST PUBLIC
ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON