ATL: EARL - Models

[MGC]

When I looked at the models this morning I kinda chuckled.....what are the chances of three tropical cyclones to have nearly identical tracks thru the same weakness over the course of nearly a week? Highly improbable....the stearing flow is constantly evolving. Due to the lack of data mid ocean, the models usually guess at the condition mid ocean and the guess over time can become huge. I can not remember the number of times that models have shifted westward (along with the NHC track). Remember Ivan? Anyway, I'm not sold on Earl following Danielle at all....those of you in the Islands need to keep a close eye on Earl....MGC

[Ivanhater]

HWRF...with the trends, the Islands are going to really have to watch this one

[cycloneye]

18z GFDL has a major cane but at safe distance from NE Caribbean.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

[KWT]

HWRF is a little weaker and thus is closer to the islands but its still a decent amout to the NE overall...

However if the turn to the WNW/NW is another 24hrs then that would make things mightly uncomfortable for the Islands.

Going to be verey 50-50 as to whether it gets picked up by Danielle, though we do have the bonus of a still fairly troughy pattern even if it does miss the connection....however IF it gets west of 70W...I see little that could prevent a landfall....

[Recurve]

Good old GFDL, always nice for a little adrenaline rush early on. Don't know why but it seems to have an intensity bias, seen it nail the track but suggest Cat 3 when a storm ends up being a TS or Cat 1.

[hurricaneCW]

Danielle is still the key but the trend west is important. If Danielle lifts out even earlier than depicted, than Earl could come very close to the U.S. However, it would be very unusual for a TS that is near 15N, east of 40W make it all the way to the U.S. What are the chances of that happening? Maybe this one will pull a Hugo and make it.

I definitely believe this one will make it west of Danielle, all it has to do is get past 60W which should be no problem. I think this one could be a lot stronger than Danielle as well and it threatens the NE islands, Bermuda, the East Coast, and Canada in the future.

[KWT]

Not too common HCW though it does happen at times...

However its really not going to gain too much latitude from now on, only slight gains here and there and so it probably will be close to 20N and 60W...and there have been a fair few storms that have hit from that position in the past...

[cycloneye]

00z Tropical Models

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 260047
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0047 UTC THU AUG 26 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
TROPICAL CYCLONE EARL (AL072010) 20100826 0000 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100826  0000   100826  1200   100827  0000   100827  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    14.6N  32.8W   15.4N  35.9W   16.4N  39.1W   17.0N  42.6W
BAMD    14.6N  32.8W   15.6N  35.3W   16.7N  38.1W   17.6N  41.0W
BAMM    14.6N  32.8W   15.7N  35.8W   16.9N  38.9W   17.8N  42.4W
LBAR    14.6N  32.8W   15.4N  35.6W   16.4N  38.8W   17.3N  42.2W
SHIP        35KTS          41KTS          49KTS          59KTS
DSHP        35KTS          41KTS          49KTS          59KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100828  0000   100829  0000   100830  0000   100831  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    17.7N  46.0W   19.6N  53.5W   22.0N  59.6W   23.7N  64.5W
BAMD    18.5N  44.0W   19.9N  49.8W   21.5N  55.8W   23.3N  61.8W
BAMM    18.6N  46.1W   19.7N  53.3W   21.0N  58.9W   21.8N  63.4W
LBAR    18.3N  45.6W   19.0N  52.6W   19.1N  57.2W     .0N    .0W
SHIP        69KTS          80KTS          86KTS          90KTS
DSHP        69KTS          80KTS          86KTS          90KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  14.6N LONCUR =  32.8W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR =  14KT
LATM12 =  14.2N LONM12 =  30.3W DIRM12 = 276DEG SPDM12 =  17KT
LATM24 =  14.0N LONM24 =  25.8W
WNDCUR =   35KT RMAXWD =   40NM WNDM12 =   30KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD =  200NM SDEPTH =   M
RD34NE =   50NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =  50NM
 
$$


[Blown Away]

The 00z BAMS sure have flattened out and the BAMM looks like it's bending a little more WNW at the end point?

[Evil Jeremy]

Very interesting how the BAMs now don't even show a hook to the north anywhere in their runs.

[KWT]

Most models appear to still be decent to the north of the islands, but obviously if any westward trend was to occur then it'd make things much more interesting.

[Evil Jeremy]

Most models appear to still be decent to the north of the islands, but obviously if any westward trend was to occur then it'd make things much more interesting.

Were in the middle of said trend. The SFWMD graph isnt updated with the latest GFS run, which is far more south and west than before.

[Vortex]

bams all trending west as well..If earl makes it to 70W and S of 23N this would certainly be a bona fide threat to the bahamas and east coast..00z Globals runs should really shed light on just how significant this trend is or not...

[Blown Away]

Most models appear to still be decent to the north of the islands, but obviously if any westward trend was to occur then it'd make things much more interesting.

Question for you KWT, notice about 360 miles between the 96 and 120 hour BAM points which works out to about 15 mph. If Earl were to follow in Danielle's weakness wouldn't the steering currents be a little weaker as Earl rounds the ridge into the weakness? Shouldn't Earl be going a bit slower if he were about to make that NW turn?

[jlauderdal]

bams all trending west as well..If earl makes it to 70W and S of 23N this would certainly be a bona fide threat to the bahamas and east coast..00z Globals runs should really shed light on just how significant this trend is or not...

26.2 is our number my venice of america friend

[Blown Away]

bams all trending west as well..If earl makes it to 70W and S of 23N this would certainly be a bona fide threat to the bahamas and east coast..00z Globals runs should really shed light on just how significant this trend is or not...

26.2 is our number my venice of america friend

27.1 here! What are you thinking Jlauderdal? I'm still thinking recurve but I'm not buying Earl following the same track and I think Danielle will be out of the way sooner which will allow the ridge to close the gap??

[stormchazer]

27.9 but we have a force field.

Seriously, we have time to watch Earl. The runs are still a bit far out to have a great deal of faith, but the trend does give you pause.

[Dean4Storms]

I think two things here in play with Earl. A weaker Danielle allows the subtropical ridge to strengthen thus keeping Earl on a further west trajectory and also less weakness left behind for a strong north turn. Back when the models were showing a very deep Danielle the ridge was almost non-existent which the GFS and ECM still show to some degree.

So I think the key here with Earl will be what becomes of Danielle over the next 3 days strength wise.

[gatorcane]

The ECMWF and GFS have not shown an island hit yet, though they have gotten a bit closer today. After the islands, both have consistently been showing that recurve starting. I do think this one is going to make it closer to the islands but still has a good chance of passing by to the NE like most Cape Verde systems do. When the ECMWF and GFS stop showing a NW bend into the weakness at the end of the run, here in Florida I may start paying attention. As of now I don't have much of a worry about Earl for South Florida or Florida at all for that matter. In fact with this kind of Western Atlantic troughiness pattern we are in, as I have been saying, if models start to spin something up in the Caribbean only then might it have a chance of impacting the SE Coast of the US and Florida. Looking at the models, that may not happen for quite a while.

[Ivanhater]

The ECMWF and GFS have not shown an island hit yet, though they have gotten a bit closer today. After the islands, both have consistently been showing that recurve starting. I do think this one is going to make it closer to the islands but still has a good chance of passing by to the NE like most Cape Verde systems do. When the ECMWF and GFS stop showing a NW bend into the weakness at the end of the run, here in Florida I may start paying attention. As of now I don't have much of a worry about Earl for South Florida or Florida at all for that matter.

Gator, go back and take a look at the GFS 500MB charts. Barely makes the weakness to recurve. The ridge is constantly trying to build over it the entire time and Earl barely makes it out. Taking into account model error in this range, I'm gonna sit back on this one for another day or so before I feel confident about anything...