ATL: EARL - Models

[Dean4Storms]

If Earl hits the Islands no way it misses the EC with what the ECM is showing there as far as the ridging to the north. I just don't see Fiona becoming a fish with the changes that are coming.

[ROCK]

If Earl hits the Islands no way it misses the EC with what the ECM is showing there as far as the ridging to the north. I just don't see Fiona becoming a fish with the changes that are coming.

agree...I see even farther west for Earl and a FL issue...Fiona looks to be a carib cruiser and GOM afterwards.....ok I said it...flame away!!!!

[Blown Away]

From the 5pm Advisory: MOST OF THE
GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A PERSISTENT SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING
FROM AFRICA TO NEAR 60 DEGREES WEST. THIS STEERING PATTERN WILL
LIKELY KEEP THE CYCLONE ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT 3
TO 4 DAYS.

Many of those models are moving WNW over the next few days. Interesting!

[Vortex]

18Z GFS about to roll...Ya know NHC is glued

[lester]

18Z GFS about to roll...Ya know NHC is glued

No doubt. Especially after yesterday's doomsday run

[KWT]

Earl sure will track westwards for the next few days but that weakness still looks very solid IMO, models suggest thats one of the key features...could get a little further west but the track of Danielle will give a decent guide to this one IMO, though it probably will get further west though.

[ConvergenceZone]

Earl sure will track westwards for the next few days but that weakness still looks very solid IMO, models suggest thats one of the key features...could get a little further west but the track of Danielle will give a decent guide to this one IMO, though it probably will get further west though.

Just remember though KWT, the cone still has the islands in it and if it hits the islands on the southern side, I don't see how the weakness is going to pull it up...

[Ivanhater]

Earl sure will track westwards for the next few days but that weakness still looks very solid IMO, models suggest thats one of the key features...could get a little further west but the track of Danielle will give a decent guide to this one IMO, though it probably will get further west though.

Those very same models were recurving Earl almost right off the African coast. The latest NHC disco sums it up best with the mention of models shifting south and they are waiting for more model runs.

[Duke95]

Actually the vast majority of the models in the very first scattergram had it recurving between 55 and 60 - just like the vast majority of the models in the current scattergram do.

[Evil Jeremy]

Actually the vast majority of the models in the very first scattergram had it recurving between 55 and 60 - just like the vast majority of the models in the current scattergram do.

First full model plot:

[KWT]

The difference is Ivanhater there will be a weakness out there...because Danielle is causing it, its a feature we can watch very closely because we are following it already...its going to need a real big reversal of the upper pattern we have to threaten the states.

Generally when you have a upper high over the E.States, a trough of some sorts, even weak over W.Atlantic, you usually get a recurve solution near 60W...its when the Upper level high shifts to Canada things become more interesting...

Still a southward adjustment puts the islands at threat for sure....

[Ivanhater]

The difference is Ivanhater there will be a weakness out there...because Danielle is causing it, its a feature we can watch very closely because we are following it already...its going to need a real big reversal of the upper pattern we have to threaten the states.

Generally when you have a upper high over the E.States, a trough of some sorts, even weak over W.Atlantic, you usually get a recurve solution near 60W...its when the Upper level high shifts to Canada things become more interesting...

Still a southward adjustment puts the islands at threat for sure....

There is no way of knowing what the weakness will look like post Danielle when Earl is approaching 60 west. With models shifting south, it would be easy for the door to be closed behind Danielle. Too many factors depends on strength and speed.

[Duke95]

I see. Looks like the gifs don't stay constant in old posts.

Sinking back into lurkdom.

[Ivanhater]

I see. Looks like the gifs don't stay constant in old posts.

Sinking back into lurkdom.

No biggie. We all make that mistake

[Evil Jeremy]

There is no way of knowing what the weakness will look like post Danielle when Earl is approaching 60 west. With models shifting south, it would be easy for the door to be closed behind Danielle. Too many factors depends on strength and speed.

Even though the models are shifting south, they are still hooking north at the end. How far south does Earl need to go to miss the connection altogether?

[Gustywind]

the latest cone above here on S2k shows the islands could be in it later. This may need to be watched very closely. Thinking of all you guys on the islands.

Thanks we appreciate

[KWT]

There is no way of knowing what the weakness will look like post Danielle when Earl is approaching 60 west. With models shifting south, it would be easy for the door to be closed behind Danielle. Too many factors depends on strength and speed.

Thats why I'm a little hesitant to say a recurve will happen still...its the most likely option for sure but there is enough uncertainty at the moment with the big Ds track to be totally confident.

My early punt is the models will shift westwards yet further with Earl and maybe even Danielle...but its possibly Fiona that has me quite interested to be honest.

[Ivanhater]

126 hours...really close call

[Evil Jeremy]

Another run, another move to the west.

[Ivanhater]

150 hours..whatever the outcome of this run..it is showing a close call