ATL: Ex Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion

[cycloneye]

[Ivanhater]

That was an interesting tid bit fromthe DISCO

THIS WAS
BASED ON THE REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT OF THESE TWO RELIABLE MODELS
IN FIVE DAYS. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED SOUTHWARD A
LITTLE BIT...THE CORE OF THE CYCLONE IS STILL FORECAST TO PASS TO
THE NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. LETS SEE WHAT HAPPENS IN THE
NEXT MODEL CYCLE.

[thetruesms]

I love this little sentence from the 5pm discussion.

" LETS SEE WHAT HAPPENS IN THE NEXT MODEL CYCLE."

That one stood out to me, too

[jlauderdal]

Latest GFS an EC take the center across 20N/60W. That's about 275 miles NE of the Caribbean islands.

oh its the bobby hebert box

[cycloneye]

The Northern Leewards are in the cone.

[Evil Jeremy]

"LETS SEE WHAT HAPPENS IN THE
NEXT MODEL CYCLE. "

Never heard anything like that before.

[deltadog03]

I think one of these will be a major player for the Eastern US. Def. not going to be danielle and don't think it will be earl. Will have to watch Earl though! Might be the chick behind him that comes very close. In the means there will be a huge ridge parked over the NE US down the road. As always, its going to depend on timing.

[Vortex]

this could be a very close call..lets see what the next set of models indicate

[AdamFirst]

this could be a very close call..lets see what the next set of models indicate

Avila shares your sentiment

[tgenius]

So we won't have to worry about this in SFL it appears *right now*

[Cookie]

so we have Earl

[CrazyC83]

The intensity forecast might be really conservative, unless they think dry air will come in again...

[ROCK]

lets wait for the next model cycle.....? nice....thats a hint they dont know how far west its going to get.....

[CourierPR]

So we won't have to worry about this in SFL it appears *right now*

Anytime we have a storm to our southeast here in SFL during the heart of hurricane season, we keep watch.

[ROCK]

The intensity forecast might be really conservative, unless they think dry air will come in again...

its embedded within some stable flow right now "subsidence"...as was Dee for a time...I think its about right for now...

[ROCK]

So we won't have to worry about this in SFL it appears *right now*

Anytime we have a storm to our southeast here in SFL during the heart of hurricane season, we keep watch.

if I had a dollar how many times I have seen a post like that......

[Gustywind]

Latest GFS an EC take the center across 20N/60W. That's about 275 miles NE of the Caribbean islands.

Wouldn't mind some rain from this. Cistern tanks are almost empty.

yeah but not in excess and without strong winds is not a bad thing for our plants, vegetation . But let's wait and see carefully Earl in case of.

[redfish1]

could this possibly make a bee line towards the GOM?

[Evil Jeremy]

could this possibly make a bee line towards the GOM?

Very unlikely. Not impossible (as nothing ever is in the tropics), but I would give it a 2% chance right now of getting to the GOM

[Plant grower]

could this possibly make a bee line towards the GOM?

At this point anything is fair game.