ATL: Ex-Hurricane DANIELLE - Discussion

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Re: ATL: Hurricane DANIELLE - Discussion

#1341 Postby cpdaman » Wed Aug 25, 2010 12:17 pm

looks like a lot of shear to go thru for danielle....wouldn't be shocked to see her back down to a strong tropical storm by later today just looking at her current stats and the unsettledness to her NW....although as she turns more Northwest even NNW (short term?) the shear may be more SW or SSW ......also looks like she may go further east by ....i dunno several hundred miles?
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Re: ATL: Hurricane DANIELLE - Discussion

#1342 Postby cycloneye » Wed Aug 25, 2010 1:36 pm

18z Best Track

AL, 06, 2010082518, , BEST, 0, 206N, 527W, 75, 982, HU
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Re: ATL: Hurricane DANIELLE - Discussion

#1343 Postby cpdaman » Wed Aug 25, 2010 1:37 pm

the GFDL and HRWF says ....keep watchin the track of danielle

right now she's bouncing n then bouncing more W.....(stair stepping).....perhaps tonite she moves back WNW for a time.
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#1344 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Aug 25, 2010 1:37 pm

Seems to be holding pretty much steady right now.
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Re: ATL: Hurricane DANIELLE - Discussion

#1345 Postby ROCK » Wed Aug 25, 2010 1:41 pm

cpdaman wrote:the GFDL and HRWF says ....keep watchin the track of danielle

right now she's bouncing n then bouncing more W.....(stair stepping).....perhaps tonite she moves back WNW for a time.


yeah, ridges are not smooth as depicted in model runs....she will bump up against the ridge until she finds a spot weaker to move into and eventually find the escape hatch...
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Re: ATL: Hurricane DANIELLE - Discussion

#1346 Postby cpdaman » Wed Aug 25, 2010 1:50 pm

looks like she is supposed to find that escape hatch around 60-62W....but GFDL and HRWF says someone will stuff the other end of the escape hatch after a day or so....and then ???
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#1347 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Aug 25, 2010 1:51 pm

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#1348 Postby Nimbus » Wed Aug 25, 2010 1:52 pm

She has been hauling tail NNW for the last 6 hours and the current ridge looks like it is breaking down. The model runs show a new ridge building back south that is forecast to stall Danielle and pull her back to the west some but above 30 N you know how that usually ends up. New model runs may look different. Actually this is bad news for US interests because it would give enough time for the ridge to build back in for Earl.
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Re: ATL: Hurricane DANIELLE - Discussion

#1349 Postby hurricaneCW » Wed Aug 25, 2010 1:54 pm

The further north and east this one goes, the more likely Earl gets further west. The latest Euro shows the separation thus bringing Earl much further west than before, very close to the NE islands.
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Re: ATL: Hurricane DANIELLE - Discussion

#1350 Postby cpdaman » Wed Aug 25, 2010 1:54 pm

where would u guys identify the center location as of 1815...?

21.2 / 53 looks clear to me

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-ir2.html
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Re: ATL: Hurricane DANIELLE - Discussion

#1351 Postby cpdaman » Wed Aug 25, 2010 2:00 pm

anyone wanna guess what latitude danielle is at when she passes 55W

if she is 21.2/ 53
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Re: ATL: Hurricane DANIELLE - Discussion

#1352 Postby wxman57 » Wed Aug 25, 2010 2:01 pm

cpdaman wrote:where would u guys identify the center location as of 1815...?

21.2 / 53 looks clear to me

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-ir2.html


NHC Has it at 20.6N/52.7W. It's not in the center of the CDO. I measure a 6hr movement toward 323 degrees (NW) at 16 kts.
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#1353 Postby Frank2 » Wed Aug 25, 2010 2:06 pm

The WV loop shows the trough beginning to move off the SE US coast, with another trough dropping SE behind it, so apparently we are in a recurve pattern, thankfully...

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html
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Re:

#1354 Postby hurricaneCW » Wed Aug 25, 2010 2:10 pm

Frank2 wrote:The WV loop shows the trough beginning to move off the SE US coast, with another trough dropping SE behind it, so apparently we are in a recurve pattern, thankfully...

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html


Definite for Danielle, too early to say for the other ones. A huge ridge of high pressure is going to be building over the east coast in a few days. If either Earl or the one behind it misses Danielle's weakness, then game on.
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Re:

#1355 Postby cpdaman » Wed Aug 25, 2010 2:11 pm

Nimbus wrote:She has been hauling tail NNW for the last 6 hours and the current ridge looks like it is breaking down. The model runs show a new ridge building back south that is forecast to stall Danielle and pull her back to the west some but above 30 N you know how that usually ends up. New model runs may look different. Actually this is bad news for US interests because it would give enough time for the ridge to build back in for Earl.


i don't see NNW i see pretty straight forward NW (last 7 hours)...with the last two frames more WNW'ish around 305.
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#1356 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Aug 25, 2010 2:12 pm

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Re: ATL: Hurricane DANIELLE - Discussion

#1357 Postby cpdaman » Wed Aug 25, 2010 2:26 pm

looks to me like Danielle is getting LARGER
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#1358 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Aug 25, 2010 2:28 pm

Dry air is trying to intrude but she seems to be holding it off. I'd say steady at 75 kt right now.
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Re: ATL: Hurricane DANIELLE - Discussion

#1359 Postby cpdaman » Wed Aug 25, 2010 2:44 pm

i find it interesting that uLL North of danielle moved slightly North today.

is that another weaker ULL to her WNW dropping SW'ward?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/flash-wv.html
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Re: ATL: Hurricane DANIELLE - Discussion

#1360 Postby AdamFirst » Wed Aug 25, 2010 3:35 pm

THE SPREAD OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE DURING
THIS TIME HAS INCREASED SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY...AND THE
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK HAS CORRESPONDINGLY DECREASED.
THE NOGAPS... HWRF...GFDN...AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS FORECAST A
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION BY 120 HR AND ARE ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THE ECMWF AND THE LBAR SHOW A QUICK RECURAVTURE
TO THE NORTHEAST AND ARE ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE. THE
OTHER DYNAMICAL AND CONSENSUS MODELS FORECAST A MEANDERING
NORTHWARD MOTION...AND THE 72-120 HR FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS THIS
SCENARIO.
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