ATL: Ex-Hurricane DANIELLE - Discussion

[KWT]

Looks like a no threat storm yet again, not to mention a rather weak, organized one at that. If it's going to be a fish storm, it might as well be a strong one, but we can't even get that.

Bermuda is well in the cone.

Yeah its close enough to Bermuda for the NHC to probably be tempted to get recon in there, it certainly can't hurt to look into it given Bermuda is in the cone.

[hurricaneCW]

Given the fact that it's moving to the NW already and it's already around 20N, and only around 51W, Bermuda can breath a sigh of relief. I don't think it will get any further than 60W.

[TheBurn]

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http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop_640_anis.asp?product=tropical_ge_1km_center_relative_vis_floater
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[breaking wind]

Bermuda taking a direct hit is always a longshot because of its size but the odds of the eye moving within say 100 miles or so have increased.

[thetruesms]

Microwave seems to indicate eyewall rebuilding, right now on the north quad.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... layIR.html

Getting some high topped cells firing around the LLC.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-ft.html

I know you're probably sick of people telling you how to post, but may I make a request? If you've got an animated gif like the MIMIC graphic in your first link, would you mind posting the link to the gif file rather than the webpage? That way, it will still be a link for those with slower connections, but I can use a browser extension to display the picture inline instead of having to navigate away from s2k.

If not, I'm a big boy and can click a link

[abajan]

Microwave seems to indicate eyewall rebuilding, right now on the north quad.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... layIR.html

Getting some high topped cells firing around the LLC.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-ft.html

I know you're probably sick of people telling you how to post, but may I make a request? If you've got an animated gif like the MIMIC graphic in your first link, would you mind posting the link to the gif file rather than the webpage? That way, it will still be a link for those with slower connections, but I can use a browser extension to display the picture inline instead of having to navigate away from s2k.

If not, I'm a big boy and can click a link

A little tip I saw from one of S2K's members recently was that if you have a mouse with a wheel, click the link using the the wheel to open a new tab. But your point about using image links instead of website links makes sense.

[GCANE]

Testing:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... t24hrs.gif

[thetruesms]

A little tip I saw from one of S2K's members recently was that if you have a mouse with a wheel, click the link using the the wheel to open a new tab. But your point about using image links instead of website links makes sense.

Yes, indeed - and I always need to remember to do that since not all links from here automatically open in new tabs. But I generally run with about 20 tabs open at a time, so I would prefer inline graphics to yet another new tab But I can do it.

Getting back to Danielle, I see we're starting to build some colder tops again At the same time, though, it does seem every so often that she hasn't quite mixed out all the dry air, and it's been causing minor issues from time to time. It looks to keep short-term strengthening from reaching full potential along with some W/SW shear

edit:

Testing:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... t24hrs.gif

Works beautifully with my unlinker! Also, if anyone is interested in that extension and is running chrome, search for SB Unlinker in the extension library. There's one for Firefox users as well, but I can't remember off the top of my head what its name is. I imagine a search for unlinker would find it.

[OuterBanker]

I see gfs went to rehab last night.

After the wild 18z the 00 and 06 tuned back to normal and sent Danielle and Earl out to sea.

[GCANE]

High rain-rate eyewall cell is firing.

Re-Intensification appears to be underway.

[ColinDelia]

From the most recent Navy graphic of the forecast track the center will pass 122 nm from Bermuda on day 4. The average 4 day NHC forecast error is about 200 nm.

[wxman57]

From the most recent Navy graphic of the forecast track the center will pass 122 nm from Bermuda on day 4. The average 4 day NHC forecast error is about 200 nm.

On recurving storms, most of the track error is distributed along-track. So the cross-track error would be less than the along-track error for Danielle. Still, Bermuda isn't in the clear just yet.

[CrazyC83]

Seems to be organizing slowly. I'd bump it up to 80 kt personally.

[KWT]

Yeah the northern side is looking good now again though its still got to wrap itself around, probably only steady strengthening here.

Also I think Bermuda is far from clear, really won't need much westward shift from the model to get strong winds and rain into Bermuda...

Good to see we have recon going in as well so we will get a good indication of where this one is at!

[supercane]

UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH
A TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE HURRICANE ARE CAUSING 15-20 KT OF
WESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR...

Map made in UW-CIMSS TCTrak with IR sat, obs, shear overlays.

[KWT]

Yeah that shearing pattern is still hampering this system, I'm not sure it can get much stronger until that shear eases off...

[CrazyC83]

65 and 90 kt from different agencies - talk about quite a spread.

[HURAKAN]

latest

[KWT]

Looks like its really struggling with its southern side still there...may not strengthen much more till that gets sorted out IMO.

[Nimbus]

If you watch a long WV loop you can see Danielle chasing that ULL NW and the ridge looks to me to be a little weaker. So i'm starting to entertain the idea of what if Danielle exits early and the ridge has time to build in south of her before TD7/Earl gets here? I know we shouldn't speculate without a disclaimer but it does look a little better for Bermuda with Danielle gaining lots of latitude over the last 12 hours. This line of reasoning won't fly of course if Danielle stalls and the ridge builds back in to her north.