ATL: Ex-Hurricane DANIELLE - Discussion

[Kingarabian]

Actually its looking like its going on track NW. IMO Danielle looks stupidly dangerous with these random convection bursts.

[Brent]

6z best track, winds up to 75 kt, 85 mph, and it's on track NW, not west:

AL, 06, 2010082506, , BEST, 0, 185N, 503W, 75, 982, HU, 64, NEQ, 25, 15, 10, 25, 1010, 240, 20, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, DANIELLE, D,

[ColinDelia]

Dvorak T4.0/4.0 if no one posted it yet

[ColinDelia]

TPW

[ColinDelia]

Divergence and convergence

[KWT]

Still might be quite close to Bermuda but we will see...given its moving NW now confidence is increasing that this will go east of Bermuda but we will see!

Lets see how this one works out, looks like its still a little ragged IMO...

[KWT]

By the way does anybody know whether recon may head into this storm?

Its just that it may get close enough to Bermuda to require recon to fly in given they are in the cone right now?

[GCANE]

I am wondering if convection may struggle a bit due to what looks like a convective cap as shown on the latest core-temp profile.

In the boundary-layer, there is a temperature increase from the surface to 2km.

Cloudsat is showing a high cirrus canopy topping out at about 150mb, a little above 15km.

[O Town]

Looking a lot better this a.m. than it did before bed last night. Cloud tops
cooling nicely.

[KWT]

Hmmm structure still seems to be lacking somewhat though from the looks of things, esp with regards to the inner core...needs to change if we are to see much strengthening IMO...but we will see!

[Aquawind]

According to the models it will have plenty of time for change in direction and strength.

[ColinDelia]

Interesting analysis, GCANE.

How high does one typically see cirrus clouds without a "convective cap"?

Any additional explanation appreciated.

[GCANE]

If the convective cap goes away and cumulus nimbus cells erupt, anything that shoots over the cirrus canopy will be a hot tower.

I'll be looking for that on VIS today.

CAPE has improved a lot since yesterday.

It seems to be wrapping in from the east.

[GCANE]

Actually, there seems to be an overshooting top at 19.5N 51W.

So, with the cirrus at this height, that would be a hot-tower.

Being very close to the LLC, that should help to intensify her.

[KWT]

According to the models it will have plenty of time for change in direction and strength.

Nah the models have been in solid agreement of the broad evolution for a long time now, no reason not to believe what they prog will be right given its followed the broad track pretty closely so far.

[hurricaneCW]

Looks like a no threat storm yet again, not to mention a rather weak, organized one at that. If it's going to be a fish storm, it might as well be a strong one, but we can't even get that.

[KWT]

Hardly HCW...its a hurricane for goodness sake forecasted to get close to major status!

Whilst this may not be the cat-5 you wanted, truth is this is still light years better then any of the rubbish we had since Alex...

[somethingfunny]

Looks like a no threat storm yet again, not to mention a rather weak, organized one at that. If it's going to be a fish storm, it might as well be a strong one, but we can't even get that.

Are you okay? Your writing style is like an obituary for Danielle. At least it's organized eh?

I cringe a little bit every time I scroll through a thread and see you've posted again.

If you think Danielle is finished, has no possibility of being a major or a land threat, is doomed to be even lamer than Colin or almost as lame as Bonnie, then please STOP FOLLOWING IT!

[Buck]

Looks like a no threat storm yet again, not to mention a rather weak, organized one at that. If it's going to be a fish storm, it might as well be a strong one, but we can't even get that.

Bermuda is well in the cone.

[GCANE]

Microwave seems to indicate eyewall rebuilding, right now on the north quad.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... layIR.html

Getting some high topped cells firing around the LLC.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-ft.html