ATL: EARL - Models

[CrazyC83]

I think Earl is just going to follow the footsteps of Danielle...

[Ivanhater]

Danielle hits the U.S and Earl is not far behind...trend is not good for the U.S if Danielle keeps trending west. Keep a good eye on "Earl"

[CrazyC83]

Danielle hits the U.S and Earl is not far behind...trend is not good for the U.S if Danielle keeps trending west. Keep a good eye on "Earl"

I would assume though if the trough comes in and recurves Danielle very late, the same trough would pick up Earl as well earlier.

[Ivanhater]

Danielle hits the U.S and Earl is not far behind...trend is not good for the U.S if Danielle keeps trending west. Keep a good eye on "Earl"

I would assume though if the trough comes in and recurves Danielle very late, the same trough would pick up Earl as well earlier.

Even in that scenario, it would depend how fast Danielle moves out and how fast Earl is moving. Very complicated.

[KWT]

Danielle hits the U.S and Earl is not far behind...trend is not good for the U.S if Danielle keeps trending west. Keep a good eye on "Earl"

I would assume though if the trough comes in and recurves Danielle very late, the same trough would pick up Earl as well earlier.

Very likely and the whole lot would be cleared out quickly as well....which then would quite possibly pave the way for the wave behind it...and if that took a little longer in developing on the 18z run that'd almost certainly have been a threat.

Could have a parade of storms soon!

[CrazyC83]

Danielle hits the U.S and Earl is not far behind...trend is not good for the U.S if Danielle keeps trending west. Keep a good eye on "Earl"

I would assume though if the trough comes in and recurves Danielle very late, the same trough would pick up Earl as well earlier.

Very likely and the whole lot would be cleared out quickly as well....which then would quite possibly pave the way for the wave behind it...and if that took a little longer in developing on the 18z run that'd almost certainly have been a threat.

Could have a parade of storms soon!

The only way I can see a double-attack is if Danielle misses the trough and nothing else picks her up. Alternatively, an earlier pickup of Danielle could mean Earl misses it...

[Blown Away]

Danielle hits the U.S and Earl is not far behind...trend is not good for the U.S if Danielle keeps trending west. Keep a good eye on "Earl"

Can you post the pic that shows this?

[cycloneye]

00z Tropical Models

Code: Select all

417
WHXX01 KWBC 250046
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0046 UTC WED AUG 25 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL962010) 20100825 0000 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100825  0000   100825  1200   100826  0000   100826  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    13.6N  26.7W   14.3N  30.3W   14.9N  33.8W   15.2N  37.2W
BAMD    13.6N  26.7W   14.5N  29.2W   15.4N  31.8W   16.5N  34.5W
BAMM    13.6N  26.7W   14.5N  29.8W   15.3N  33.2W   16.1N  36.6W
LBAR    13.6N  26.7W   14.1N  29.7W   15.0N  32.9W   15.9N  36.2W
SHIP        30KTS          36KTS          43KTS          51KTS
DSHP        30KTS          36KTS          43KTS          51KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100827  0000   100828  0000   100829  0000   100830  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    15.7N  40.3W   16.4N  46.0W   17.2N  51.2W   18.6N  55.5W
BAMD    17.6N  37.2W   19.5N  42.0W   21.1N  45.6W   22.5N  49.0W
BAMM    16.7N  39.7W   17.4N  45.9W   17.8N  51.0W   18.9N  54.4W
LBAR    16.9N  39.4W   18.0N  45.7W   17.8N  50.4W     .0N    .0W
SHIP        58KTS          72KTS          75KTS          78KTS
DSHP        58KTS          72KTS          75KTS          78KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  13.6N LONCUR =  26.7W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR =  15KT
LATM12 =  13.1N LONM12 =  23.5W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 =  21KT
LATM24 =  12.1N LONM24 =  19.1W
WNDCUR =   30KT RMAXWD =   40NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD =  150NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 
$$
NNNN


[Blown Away]

Ummm, is anybody starting to think 96L could be a player for the NE Caribbean?

[AdamFirst]

Danielle hits the U.S and Earl is not far behind...trend is not good for the U.S if Danielle keeps trending west. Keep a good eye on "Earl"

Can you post the pic that shows this?

18Z GFS shows Danielle stopping dead in its tracks right by Bermuda and making a beeline towards Virginia Beach and North Carolina's outer banks as a major.

That would be an unprecedented landfall to say the least.

96L/Future Earl follows a Frances-like track on the same model, keeping it west-northwest above the islands. It also has a smaller feature developing below it.

Remember, this is still long range...but I think more of the models are saying stall for Danielle and that could mean a most westerly track for Future Earl.

(This is an unofficial opinion, not an official forecast, refer to your local NWS office and the NHC, yadda yadda yadda)

[linkerweather]

Danielle hits the U.S and Earl is not far behind...trend is not good for the U.S if Danielle keeps trending west. Keep a good eye on "Earl"

Can you post the pic that shows this?

18Z GFS shows Danielle stopping dead in its tracks right by Bermuda and making a beeline towards Virginia Beach and North Carolina's outer banks as a major.

That would be an unprecedented landfall to say the least.

96L/Future Earl follows a Frances-like track on the same model, keeping it west-northwest above the islands. It also has a smaller feature developing below it.

Remember, this is still long range...but I think more of the models are saying stall for Danielle and that could mean a most westerly track for Future Earl.

I browse this board but very rarely post. I do like that the moderators ask people to put disclaimers on forecasts, I think that that disclaimer should be on most posts like the one above. I just looked over and over the 18z GFS and although the model is farther west then the 12z, nowhere is there an indication of a bee line toward VA beach and certainly not earl following a frances like track. The 18z GFS takes Danielle near Bermuda, bends it NW toward NYC and then curls it NE skirting just SE of the NE coast and Earl doesn't do anything toward the US coast.

[Dean4Storms]

Exactly Linkerweather, there is no landfall shown on that run.

[AdamFirst]

I browse this board but very rarely post. I do like that the moderators ask people to put disclaimers on forecasts, I think that that disclaimer should be on most posts like the one above. I just looked over and over the 18z GFS and although the model is farther west then the 12z, nowhere is there an indication of a bee line toward VA beach and certainly not earl following a frances like track. The 18z GFS takes Danielle near Bermuda, bends it NW toward NYC and then curls it NE skirting just SE of the NE coast and Earl doesn't do anything toward the US coast.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

I got the 18z GFS plot from here.
If that's wrong, take it up with Florida State University.

[Blown Away]

Looking at the 18z GFS, something has to give with 96L if Danielle slows down just off the NE CONUS. At the end run Danielle slows down and 96L keeps plowing NW, there not going to crash into each other?


http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

[linkerweather]

I browse this board but very rarely post. I do like that the moderators ask people to put disclaimers on forecasts, I think that that disclaimer should be on most posts like the one above. I just looked over and over the 18z GFS and although the model is farther west then the 12z, nowhere is there an indication of a bee line toward VA beach and certainly not earl following a frances like track. The 18z GFS takes Danielle near Bermuda, bends it NW toward NYC and then curls it NE skirting just SE of the NE coast and Earl doesn't do anything toward the US coast.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

I got the 18z GFS plot from here.
If that's wrong, take it up with Florida State University.

That site stops the run at 168 hours.....the GFS goes out to 384 hours. You can't just look at the last frame and then imagine what happens next. By the way FSU is a great university with a terrific meteorology prgram both undergrad and grad level. No need to take it up with them, they are doing just fine.

[Steve]

LMAO. I could be wrong, but I think the disclaimer goes out to personal forecasts. The interpretation of the model may be wrong as the longer range GFS seems to move toward Massachusetts (debatable whether it landfalls, but does bring the Cape into the sphere of influence). I think what's banned is him saying "It's going to hit VA Beach" without providing a backup and a disclaimer. Saying the model is pointing to that can't possibly be a violation, but it would be something that any of us who ran the long range GFS would argue. JMO, I'm sure the mods will set the record straight on the disclaimer.

FWIW, Day 8.5 (204 hours)
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_204l.gif

[SeminoleWind]

Looking at the 18z GFS, something has to give with 96L if Danielle slows down just off the NE CONUS. At the end run Danielle slows down and 96L keeps plowing NW, there not going to crash into each other?


http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

i dont know about crashing into each other, but it sure looks like a traffic jam of storms.lol 3 storms geez...

[linkerweather]

LMAO. I could be wrong, but I think the disclaimer goes out to personal forecasts. The interpretation of the model may be wrong as the longer range GFS seems to move toward Massachusetts (debatable whether it landfalls, but does bring the Cape into the sphere of influence). I think what's banned is him saying "It's going to hit VA Beach" without providing a backup and a disclaimer. Saying the model is pointing to that can't possibly be a violation. JMO, I'm sure the mods will set the record straight.

I am not sure I agree....the poster was very matter of fact that the "model shows" it making a bee line toward VA beach as a major...I think that could potentially be more damming to a novice browser than making a personal forecast without reference. IMO

[AdamFirst]

I put in a disclaimer. I never said it was going to VA Beach, I said it appears like it. WHICH IT DOES ON THAT MODEL.

Let's get back to 96L.

[Ivanhater]

There is not a need for a disclaimer when pointing out what a model shows. A disclaimer is in order for a posters personal feelings and/or forecast.

However, if a poster gives a wrong interpretation of guidance (such as model runs), then a correction would be in order from someone who can point out the mistakes.

Let's get back on topic...