ATL: Ex-DANIELLE - Models

[KWT]

I'm not sure there has ever been a system that has done that hard of a left hook from bermuda right into the states like that...can't be more then a couple in 150 years of data I'd imagine!

Interesting but nothing more then that for me...right now attention must turn to Bermuda IMO!

[Ivanhater]

18z GFS

[CrazyC83]

Based on that, Danielle would likely be a Category 1 hurricane (or becoming extratropical) at landfall, but for an area not well prepared and given its size, that is still really dangerous...

[hurricaneCW]

I'm not sure there has ever been a system that has done that hard of a left hook from bermuda right into the states like that...can't be more then a couple in 150 years of data I'd imagine!

Interesting but nothing more then that for me...right now attention must turn to Bermuda IMO!

Does the gfs actually swipe Bermuda or does it avoid it, it looks like Bermuda gets hit hard. And yes the threat to Bermuda is definitely increasing while the threat to the Mid-Atlantic/NE states is very slightly increasing.

[CrazyC83]

I'm not sure there has ever been a system that has done that hard of a left hook from bermuda right into the states like that...can't be more then a couple in 150 years of data I'd imagine!

Interesting but nothing more then that for me...right now attention must turn to Bermuda IMO!

Does the gfs actually swipe Bermuda or does it avoid it, it looks like Bermuda gets hit hard. And yes the threat to Bermuda is definitely increasing while the threat to the Mid-Atlantic/NE states is very slightly increasing.

Wouldn't the building ridge over the Appalachians protect the Mid-Atlantic region (except perhaps the immediate coasts)? Although if slower to build, a landfall farther south - near where Isabel came in - is possible...

New England and the area around NYC suddenly has nervous times ahead though!

[KWT]

I think the GFS does indeed rake Bermuda HCW on that run.

Oh and the 12z GFDL has this coming within 150 miles or so of Bermuda, as a 935mbs hurricane, possibly biggest threat since Fabian if this run was correct...

[terrapintransit]

Just look how crazy the weather has been around the world though lately with Pakistan flooding..etc...Anything is possible here and we must be ready for anything!

I'm not sure there has ever been a system that has done that hard of a left hook from bermuda right into the states like that...can't be more then a couple in 150 years of data I'd imagine!

Interesting but nothing more then that for me...right now attention must turn to Bermuda IMO!

[ConvergenceZone]

The USA can only be avoided for so long...When you look at all 3 potential systems out there, I think there is a decent chance of at least 1 affecting the USA with a direct hit...

[lester]

Would like to see the 0z/12z models before I get worried about it. BIG westward trend by the GFS however. Anything can happen in the world of weather -- y'all should know this by now ;P

[Ivanhater]

The infamous Nogaps is similar to the 18z GFS

[KWT]

Whilst the Nogaps is hardly a great model the fact it does give the GFS some support is quite interesting!

Hmmm I'm guessing alot of people will stay up for the 00z runs then...I certainly won't be, will be 5-6am by the time that comes around here in the UK!

[Steve]

Yeah. As run on the FSU site, it's taking aim for Massachusetts with what's lined up for a 1-2-3 punch (which would never happen of course). NOGAPS 12 has a similar bend back at the end. I don't believe either of them, because I suspect the ridge will build in behind the recurve and not over the storm. But we've seen things like that happen farther south. So even if it's only a 1 or 2% chance, it's worth nothing for comedic value.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

[BigA]

Couldn't 1995's Felix to an extent be seen as an analog, with the movement northwest,swiping Bermuda, then the bend back west at a relatively high latitude?

[KWT]

I was thinking that earlier on BigA but that system shows just how hard it is for a system to bend back west all the way to the states, Felix had a decent upper high aloft but still didn't get 'that' close to the E.Coast, despite it bending back westwards...

[Aric Dunn]

yeah the nogaps is rather scary..

[Ivanhater]

18z GFS Ensembles agrees with the Operational, if not even further west!

[KWT]

Yeah some decent support there for a further west solution...

HWRF however has none of it and still bedns north at 60-62W...but not far from Bermuda really...gets to 90-95kts.

[JPM]

Your qoute was

I'm not sure there has ever been a system that has done that hard of a left hook from bermuda right into the states like that...can't be more then a couple in 150 years of data I'd imagine!

Interesting but nothing more then that for me...right now attention must turn to Bermuda IMO!

Unfortunatly that is incorrect, a number of storms/hurricanes have done just that, including landfalling major hurricanes; a little research will inform you. I'm not tattacking you here, just informing you of the facts. My next post will introduce me to you guys and give you my backround, I will be writing that now and it will be up in minutes; thank you guys.

[Ivanhater]

Yeah some decent support there for a further west solution...

HWRF however has none of it and still bedns north at 60-62W...but not far from Bermuda really...gets to 90-95kts.

Nope..even the right biased HWRF is bending westward similar to the GFS

[TwisterFanatic]

Ummmmm.... what in the world is up with the model shift.