ATL: EARL - Models

[Vortex]

18Z GFS begins rolling in about 10 minutes...

[Agua]

Sitting up all night wobble-watching a hurricane churning away out there so I can determine whether to board up my windows and evacuate my family is not the kind of "excitement" I enjoy.

I've said this before, but it ought to be in someone's signature.

[KWT]

Interesting models and they suggest this one probably has a reasonable shot at getting further west then Danielle unless the ECM is correct and it still scoots up with Danielle...however the pattern is *still* troughy down the east coast and it would take perfect timing for a threat down the road with this one.

Heights still looks low down the east coast and until that happens folks, a US threat is a real slim chance, you need higher heights there then you have a threat and until that happens, the real threat are ones that slip through to about 55-60W then start to develop in the Caribbean...for now....

[hurricaneCW]

I think this one has a good chance to reach 65-70W, a lot will depend on timing, Danielle's strength and movement, plus other factors that are too far out to forecast. I don't know about the troughing because the east coast is expected to heat up big time with a huge ridge building in next week.

[KWT]

It doesn't matter if a high builds or not its what occurs in terms of relative heights that counts, for example you can have a high but if there is a weakness and reduced hieghts o the north say over Canada the storm will get attracted to the lower heights and shift to the north and effectivly punch right through any weak high that'd be in its way.

With all that being said if this one does get to say 65W and can stay below 25N then at the very least there maybe a risk depending on the timings. I think it'd require near perfect timing for a threat to land but you never quite know...

[Ivanhater]

18Z GFS develops Earl into a Hurricane

108 hours

[Blown Away]

Is that Fiona behind Earl??

[Ivanhater]

:uarrow:
Is that Fiona behind Earl??

Not sure if that is tropical storm strength yet, but yes, that is possible Fiona according the models being discussed in Talking tropics.

[KWT]

Also interestingly develops another storm right behind 96L!

Anyway we are very lucky to have DAnielle in front of this one otherwise I'd be far from convinced this one would recurve at all to be honest...as it is I'd still expect the weakness from Danielle to lift this one up at least enough so the next trough through has a fairly comfortable job lifting out totally.

[Ivanhater]

126 hours

[Blown Away]

Probably still showing recurve but it is trending westward!

[Ivanhater]

138 hours

[terrapintransit]

Looks like that high pressure will keep Earl away from the EC as well...

126 hours

[cycloneye]

Hey Ivan, that is closer to NE Caribbean than anytime before.

[Ivanhater]

150 hours..Yes it is Luis...watch for the trends with Danielle shifting west. That will effect this one

[Blown Away]

Boy that 150 hour pic is interesting, if Fiona develops no way the islands are missed, IMO!

[gatorcane]

GFS showing a trio of systems at 150 hours. We have Danielle and two other ones. The two southern ones could be potential threats to the islands and/or U.S in my opinion.

[KWT]

96L looks like it gets caught out whilst Danielle bends back WNW, 96L heading NW by 156hrs and I'd guess out to sea eventually but really who knows!

May or may not be handling Danielle well so who knows, esp with that large bend back west!

[Ivanhater]

Earl in the middle

[blazess556]

its got gaston coming off africa too. 4 storms at once.