ATL: Ex-DANIELLE - Models

[Riptide]

The current extrapolated movement clearly does not agree with the models. 0z suite will clear these problems up.

but the extrapolated movement isn't the best indicator because a WNW turn should be starting by midnite and gradually shift to a nw movement by late tomm nite ....at least that is the script lol

It is already diverging from NHC's track. Time to wait and see how Mother Nature reacts. There really isn't anything to turn this NW. What happend to the magical weakness in the central atlantic? Too much hot air for me, brb.

[cpdaman]

well i'm going to bed but when i get up in several hours ....5 am....this thing better be near 17 N otherwise ....things could be very intersting.....i am pretty sure this will be moving WNW by the time i get up ...it just has to ...no?

is the darn weakness doing something different than forecast? wouldn't are astute posters notice this and raise the red flag...i'm not being sacrastic ....i'm being serious.

[pricetag56]

its all on the father above what happens with this. Man will just never be able to accurately predict the weather

We have a very good handle on where it is going to go. Models are in excellent agreement on this not making it close to the United States (and probably North America entirely) and it hitting a weakness tomorrow afternoon.

Intensity is a bit tricker to predict, but looks like it can become our first major of the year.

but how accurate are the models. the models will never be 100 percent accurate

[dixiebreeze]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/natl/flash-wv.html

How will this emerging pattern influence Danielle's track?

[AtlanticWind]

GFS rolling in , looks like it is way under doing intensity

[Steve H.]

However, though it might be underdoing it's intensity, it shows her missing the trough, as it is pulling away (the low) into northern NE. This will have an impact on her track if it comes to fruition, and then on 96L.

[TheDreamTraveler]

Of course they will never be perfect, but when you have a consensus as tight as the current one, its pretty reliable. Meaning, USA is 99.99% likely in the clear.

Were you looking at the 00z GFS? Sure, it's not that likely it'll happen that way, but it gets almost off the coast of the Northeast and Canada. It still recurves, but its very interesting.

[SootyTern]

Is the trough curently along the US East Coast the one supposed to pick up Danielle? It seems to be in no hurry to continue east out into the Atlantic.

[cycloneye]

12z Tropical Models

SHIP doesn't go to major cane.

Code: Select all

622
WHXX01 KWBC 241242
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1242 UTC TUE AUG 24 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
TROPICAL CYCLONE DANIELLE (AL062010) 20100824 1200 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100824  1200   100825  0000   100825  1200   100826  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    16.2N  45.5W   17.4N  48.1W   18.7N  50.7W   19.8N  52.8W
BAMD    16.2N  45.5W   17.3N  47.6W   18.7N  49.7W   20.3N  51.5W
BAMM    16.2N  45.5W   17.4N  48.0W   18.6N  50.2W   20.0N  51.9W
LBAR    16.2N  45.5W   17.4N  48.1W   18.6N  50.9W   19.9N  53.6W
SHIP        75KTS          77KTS          80KTS          81KTS
DSHP        75KTS          77KTS          80KTS          81KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100826  1200   100827  1200   100828  1200   100829  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    20.8N  54.1W   23.5N  55.3W   27.7N  57.2W   31.4N  59.9W
BAMD    21.9N  53.1W   24.9N  56.0W   27.5N  58.9W   31.0N  60.7W
BAMM    21.2N  53.1W   24.4N  55.2W   27.8N  57.9W   31.7N  59.9W
LBAR    21.3N  56.1W   24.5N  60.2W   28.1N  62.2W   31.9N  60.8W
SHIP        82KTS          87KTS          93KTS          87KTS
DSHP        82KTS          87KTS          93KTS          87KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  16.2N LONCUR =  45.5W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR =  16KT
LATM12 =  15.5N LONM12 =  42.5W DIRM12 = 279DEG SPDM12 =  16KT
LATM24 =  14.8N LONM24 =  38.7W
WNDCUR =   75KT RMAXWD =   20NM WNDM12 =   75KT
CENPRS =  983MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD =  240NM SDEPTH =   D
RD34NE =  120NM RD34SE =   90NM RD34SW =   75NM RD34NW = 120NM
 
$$


[supercane]

Still great agreement among 00Z models. Map from Johnathan Vigh's Tropical Cyclone Guidance page:


And GFS very consistent last 3 runs. Map from the NCEP/EMC Cyclogenesis Tracking Page:

[Riptide]

What is going on with the GFS ensembles? Not liking the trend there.

[ronjon]

What is going on with the GFS ensembles? Not liking the trend there.

Yeah, 6 of the the 20 member GFS ensemble run take Danielle to the west either to NC or off the coast of NC. Not sure what they're seeing - perhaps the New England High Builds further east and forces Danielle to the west.

[KWT]

Yeah its interesting from the GFS ensembles, but I'd really want to see one of the operational runs go further west before giving that idea too much thought...

[Frank2]

Still, the trough is strong enough and even if there's a west motion due to a high building in it'd probably be only temporary, because at that latitude weather in the northern hemisphere will only favor one general direction - northeast...

[blazess556]

the weakness is disappearing on the 12z gfs.

[CrazyC83]

A weaker Danielle means missing the trough though?

[plasticup]

The 06 run of GFDL shows a Category 4 storm in two days. Crazyface.

[hurricaneCW]

The threat to Bermuda may be increasing again. The latest gfs brings it very close to the tiny island and really strengthens it as well. The latest period of weakening is probably only temporary.

[sandyb]

when do the new model runs come out?

[CrazyC83]

The 06 run of GFDL shows a Category 4 storm in two days. Crazyface.

Nothing can be counted out though...I've seen numerous storms go from a Cat 1 to a Cat 4 in much less than 24 hours...