ATL: Ex-DANIELLE - Models

[dixiebreeze]

Yesterday's NW jog has little or nothing to do with the shift in the longer-range tracks. Instead, it's the fact that the storm has strengthened significantly, and the models are now initializing it as a deeper system and thus more influenced by deep-layer winds vs. shallow low-level winds.

Well said, thank you and welcome to Storm2K.

[KWT]

All models now east of Bermuda as well, seems like the models are now pretty much in agreement of it going east of even Bermuda...think this one is case closed now...and I don't have to feel the shame of calling too early!

[Florida1118]

All models now east of Bermuda as well, seems like the models are now pretty much in agreement of it going east of even Bermuda...think this one is case closed now...and I don't have to feel the shame of calling too early!

Ya I guess you knew It before alot of us did. Good call.

[ronjon]

All models now east of Bermuda as well, seems like the models are now pretty much in agreement of it going east of even Bermuda...think this one is case closed now...and I don't have to feel the shame of calling too early!

I agree KWT, good call all along, models have definitely come into good agreement through 5 days - she'll be a major wave maker and nice satellite presentation but stay far away from any land masses.

[srainhoutx]

HPC:


TS DANIELLE...OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY
COME UNDER INFLUENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TUTT...WHICH SHOULD
STEER THIS SYSTEM AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA. THE LATEST NHC
GUIDANCE KEEPS THIS SYSTEM FAR FROM THE ISLANDS AND IT IS NOT
EXPECTED TO HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT ON THE FORECAST AREA. BUT IT WILL
BE WORTHWHILE TO MONITOR BUILDING RIDGE PATTERN ACROSS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN...AS IT COULD HAVE AN IMPACT ON HOW SOON THIS SYSTEM
TURNS TO THE NORTHWEST. MJO CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE ACROSS THE
FAR EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC/AFRICA...WITH THE EWP MODEL SHOWING
THIS PERSISTING INTO THE END OF THE MONTH. THE CFS IS MORE
OPTIMISTIC...SHOWING FAVORABLE TO NEAR NEUTRAL CONDITIONS TO
PERSIST INTO THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER. THUS FAR...THE CFS HAS BEEN
DOING A BETTER JOB THAN THE EWP MODEL.

[hurricaneCW]

Well on to the next one. There's not much else to talk about this one except how strong it might get and the NHC isn't very optimistic on its intensity. I don't think it'll be a major. Probably 105-110 mph at best as it recurves around 55W.

[KWT]

Models don't really suggest a major hurricane from this but really one good burst of strengthening will easily take this towards a major hurricane at this stage and its over waters easily warm enough to support it and the upper conditions look good.

I personally thought it might recurve between 60-70W but obviously I do feel increasingly vindicated by the models!
That being said the models never really got too suggestive of a threat to land, it was never more then maybe 25-30% of the models bending back west to any great degree but as per normal the models were too progressive in bringing in a pattern change.

Conditions by the way now on the models look similar to what they've been for most of August again in the longer range...proably will be the pattern overall for the rest of the season, though one could always break through.

[Frank2]

Considerable weakness is forecast to linger in the western Atlantic for the next 10 days, so very possible that the next wave will also recurve into the trough...

http://weather.unisys.com/gfsx/loop/gfsx_500p_loop.html

Looks like a case of bowling for hurricanes (lol)...

Frank

[supercane]

Kudos to you, KWT, for sticking to your guns despite pressure from most others. 0Z models, including NOGAPS (which some were going gaga for) and ECMWF, all very tightly clustered over 5 days:


And GFS very consistent last 3 runs in recurve:

[Aquawind]

It may adjust west a bit..but all indications and forecasts call for a clear fish and it sure looks like it at this point.

[HurrMark]

Considerable weakness is forecast to linger in the western Atlantic for the next 10 days, so very possible that the next wave will also recurve into the trough...

http://weather.unisys.com/gfsx/loop/gfsx_500p_loop.html

Looks like a case of bowling for hurricanes (lol)...

Frank

This season definitely feels like 2000-2001 to me...we will probably get a bunch of homegrown systems (most probably TS's) threatening the US on the Gulf or Caribbean side, but I am starting to doubt that we will have much of a threat from the east this year.

It's still early...but if that trough is going to stick around into early September, we will probably only have a two or maybe three week window before the trough is locked in place for the winter (and that is assuming it goes away after ten days).

[CrazyC83]

Notice at the end they all keep going straight north - Atlantic Canada may have to watch at the end.

[KWT]

I doubt that trough locks in for the winter, I think the SE Ridge could well come back quite hard towards the start of winter but we will see!

Anyway yeah the models are quite tightly packed, only think to watch now on the models is how strong this one becomes in the process...

[hurricaneCW]

I doubt that trough locks in for the winter, I think the SE Ridge could well come back quite hard towards the start of winter but we will see!

Anyway yeah the models are quite tightly packed, only think to watch now on the models is how strong this one becomes in the process...

Yeah and with that SE ridge, there's not going to be much of a winter. Although the season is getting active, it stills has a long way to go to meet any expectations.

[Dean4Storms]

Kudos to you, KWT, for sticking to your guns despite pressure from most others. 0Z models, including NOGAPS (which some were going gaga for) and ECMWF, all very tightly clustered over 5 days:


And GFS very consistent last 3 runs in recurve:

Just about all those models had Danielle further north as it reached 40W, this trend will need to be watched.

[Riptide]

No comments on the 12z GFS? Danielle is getting trapped again is about 500 miles SW of 6z at 96 hours.

[jimvb]

Yes. There is an enormous high parking itself on the eastern US. There is no way a storm of any kind, even a hurricane, is going to penetrate this. So both Danielle and its companion behind it are going to swing to the north and not get anywhere near the eastern US. I.e., fish. A few more frames of the GFS does show Danielle bending to the east.

[Riptide]

Yes. There is an enormous high parking itself on the eastern US. There is no way a storm of any kind, even a hurricane, is going to penetrate this. So both Danielle and its companion behind it are going to swing to the north and not get anywhere near the eastern US. I.e., fish. A few more frames of the GFS does show Danielle bending to the east.

The issue is the orientation of the high pressure and the associated weakness in the central Atlantic. If Danielle were farther SW, the high would build eastward instead of dropping southward(Along the EC), thus allowing Danielle to travel westward. Bermuda is not in the all clear yet, the Euro will probably wake people up. The GFS ensembles may be even farther west which would be a shocker.

[ROCK]

aint saying a word.....

[Riptide]

aint saying a word.....

That is a shame. I was hoping to read your opinion on this situation.