SSD dvorak T number 3.5 that is almost hurricane status

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cycloneye
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SSD dvorak T number 3.5 that is almost hurricane status

#1 Postby cycloneye » Fri Aug 15, 2003 1:25 pm

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

55 kts the winds as the chart shows. :darrow: :darrow:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/CI-chart.html

So ERIKA is intensifying and at 4 PM CDT winds will be bumped up.4.0 T number is hurricane status.
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#2 Postby Stormsfury » Fri Aug 15, 2003 1:34 pm

Still awaiting more RECCO observations ... so far, I think the 3.5 estimate may end up being a little high to actual conditions ... 55 mph, maybe 60 mph on the 5 pm advisory ... so far, 57 kts NE quad is the max wind found at Flight level.

SF

BTW, the 18 UTC tropical models are out and iniitialized at 50 kts.

SF
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Dvorak

#3 Postby wxman57 » Fri Aug 15, 2003 2:11 pm

Dvorak classification will never take precedence over acrtual recon obs. The plane will have to find 75-80 kts at flight level for it to be upgraded to a hurricane. So far, 61 kts has been the max.
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#4 Postby Colin » Fri Aug 15, 2003 2:56 pm

I'm beginning to think Erika will stay BELOW Hurricane status because of it's speed, and that it is running out of time.
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