ATL: Ex-DANIELLE - Models

[Time_Zone]

Any real chance that this could affect us in Nova Scotia down the line?

looks fish-bound to me but i'm a pretty big noob.

[KWT]

Too early to tell TZ to be honest, I'd certainly say the models suggests you need to watch it but honestly it is too soon to know, won't be this side of August though regardless....

Also worth noting the models at the moment suggest the upper trough will be large enough to shield SE Canada but that can also rapidly change....

[Time_Zone]

Too early to tell TZ to be honest, I'd certainly say the models suggests you need to watch it but honestly it is too soon to know, won't be this side of August though regardless....

Also worth noting the models at the moment suggest the upper trough will be large enough to shield SE Canada but that can also rapidly change....

So if the models are correct the trough will shield us? Keep in mind I live in Cape Breton which is the small island at the top of NS.

also thanks for the info

[TheBurn]

Danielle:

[KWT]

Nogaps already too far south though the HWRF is still interesting its rather on its own at the moment in terms of the other models that have th correct starting place and motion.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Too early to tell TZ to be honest, I'd certainly say the models suggests you need to watch it but honestly it is too soon to know, won't be this side of August though regardless....

Also worth noting the models at the moment suggest the upper trough will be large enough to shield SE Canada but that can also rapidly change....

So if the models are correct the trough will shield us? Keep in mind I live in Cape Breton which is the small island at the top of NS.

also thanks for the info

You guys in the Eastern half of Nova Socita (between Halifax & Sydney) often get hit harder by both summer & winter storms than the rest of the Maritimes do. So getting at least brushed by the effects of this thing, are not out of the question imo. It all depends upon the angle of the recurve, how sharp it is, and size of the storm. Right now however I feel Newfoundland Island has the best chance of seeing any effects here in SE Canada. Though as other have pointed out, that can change.

[ConvergenceZone]

Nogaps already too far south though the HWRF is still interesting its rather on its own at the moment in terms of the other models that have th correct starting place and motion.

On the other hand, I think the GFS is way too far east and turning it way too quickly north..

[Time_Zone]

Too early to tell TZ to be honest, I'd certainly say the models suggests you need to watch it but honestly it is too soon to know, won't be this side of August though regardless....

Also worth noting the models at the moment suggest the upper trough will be large enough to shield SE Canada but that can also rapidly change....

So if the models are correct the trough will shield us? Keep in mind I live in Cape Breton which is the small island at the top of NS.

also thanks for the info

You guys in the Eastern half of Nova Socita (between Halifax & Sydney) often get hit harder by both summer & winter storms than the rest of the Maritimes do. So getting at least brushed by the effects of this thing, are not out of the question imo. It all depends upon the angle of the recurve, how sharp it is, and size of the storm. Right now however I feel Newfoundland Island has the best chance of seeing any effects
here in SE Canada. Though as other have pointed out, that can change.

Indeed......so it seems that i'll have to keep my eye on this even though it seems unlikely we'll get much if anything from this.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Indeed......so it seems that i'll have to keep my eye on this even hough it seems unlikely we'll get much if anything from this.

Welcome to watching the tropics TZ. Where it is often never over until it is over.

[KWT]

The 18z GFS is running now, no real changes at the moment out to 36hrs, heading WNW which makes sense really.

[Ivanhater]

This is interesting at 30 hours

[KWT]

Interesting Ivanhater, though its actually a little to the north of the 12z run but that makes sense given the starting point was probably to the north of what the GFS was expecting.

Lets see how it unfolds on this run!

[KWT]

GFS looks well north of the 12z GFS on this run, a certain recurve on the 18z, moves north at 50W and the waiting for the upper trough to the east to lift it out totally...

A big shift east on this run.

[lester]

108 hours

[blp]

Guys did you notice that the below site added the EURO operational and ensmean run today, it does not go out the full 240hr and instead goes to 168hr but I have always liked this site.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

[pepeavilenho]

GFS even stronger

[KWT]

GFS really does blow this system up but recurves a good deal further east then on previous runs, back to 55W again where it was before.

I'd be very surprised if it recurved quite that early but honestly who knows!

[hurricaneCW]

GFS really does blow this system up but recurves a good deal further east then on previous runs, back to 55W again where it was before.

I'd be very surprised if it recurved quite that early but honestly who knows!

It introduces a few phantom lows in the Atlantic which act to weaken the ridging allowing it to turn more northward than before. I doubt it's the correct solution, much of what unfolds will depend on how far north Danielle gets during the whole weakness to massive high build-up begins.

[KWT]

Well I take this no more seriously then some of the models that did suggest a US landfall could happen...

That being said recurve chances could really increase again if the GFS ensembles back yet further east on the 18z, getting close to the time now where the future track will become much more clear.

Wonder how strong the tropical models will go, not common the globals are actually stronger with the system then the tropical models!

[gatorcane]

18Z GFS continues to show a highly amplified trough for this time of year digging off the Eastern CONUS. It showed this a week ago also though many have been skeptical it can be this strong for this time of year. It's very consistent with this feature eroding the Bermuda High: