Tropical Storm Erika Afternoon Discussion

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Stormsfury
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Tropical Storm Erika Afternoon Discussion

#1 Postby Stormsfury » Fri Aug 15, 2003 12:05 pm

Tropical Storm Erika
Discussion issued at 1:00 PM EDT
Forecaster: Stormsfury

Tropical Storm Erika continues to become better organized. Satellite imagery have suggested banding features are become more evident and a large convective flareup on the Eastern Semicirle continues. The equatorial outflow that was enhanced yesterday by the ULL to its south-southeast has lost some influence. However, a poleward outflow channel has developed in its wake (due to the retrograding ULL in the SW with a piece of energy ejecting north-northwestward through NM). Furthermore, Erika has slowed down some. Based on satellite imagery, Erika is moving a little less than 20 mph now and continues to move south of due west. Furthermore, Erika will be leaving the waters that were disturbed by Claudette 1 month ago. Satellite imagery suggest the ULH over Erika is being pinched to the NE by an upper backdoor upper trough punching SSW into Florida, thus also some easterly shear.

The tropical models are in close agreement of a window around Baffin Bay to Northern Mexico (about a 100 mile spread) with the BAMM, BAMD, and LBAR furthest north into Southern TX. EGRR, GFDL, and A98E into Northern MX. The Global models are generally right in the middle with the spread as well but are insisting a continued decrease in forward motion just before landfall right along the TX/MX border and a continued arc towards the WSW.

Hence the reasoning for Erika gradual strengthening are the fast forward motion, traversing some waters disrupted by Claudette a month ago, and some restricting easterly shear. However, Erika is forecast to slow down some which should allow for some better wrapping of the system. I'm not so sure that Erika will slow as fast as the globals are suggesting, but if this does occur, Erika could significantly strengthen all the way to landfall if the environment remains favorable enough to do so. The orientation of the mean flow should keep Erika on a westerly or WSW track up until landfall. Central TX, do not let your guard down because of the overall size of Erika, but the worse weather should remain to your south. Erika is expected to make landfall in 24-36 hours across the TX/MX, likely as a minimal hurricane. People in Northern MX and Southern TX should be making preparations now for Erika and have the necessary hurricane preparations complete before tonight.

I look for a landfall in Northern MX, just south of Brownsville, TX, as Erika should be continuing to move just south of due west or even WSW at times. Erika's slowing down may actually be a double-edged sword which may subject it to a little bit of easterly shear. Overall, I still see Erika making a Category 1 Hurricane before landfall, maybe as high as 85 mph winds at landfall.
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#2 Postby JCT777 » Fri Aug 15, 2003 12:16 pm

Stormsfury - excellent analysis and I agree with you, except that I think Erika will struggle to get to minumum Cat 1 intensity just prior to landfall. I will say 75 MPH peak sustained winds.
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#3 Postby Colin » Fri Aug 15, 2003 1:04 pm

Great analysis, SF!! :)
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#4 Postby Stormsfury » Fri Aug 15, 2003 2:02 pm

JCT777 wrote:Stormsfury - excellent analysis and I agree with you, except that I think Erika will struggle to get to minumum Cat 1 intensity just prior to landfall. I will say 75 MPH peak sustained winds.


75 mph is where I think also, but I use 85 mph as a potential maximum. Latest observations I have available indicate what I suspected earlier, Erika may be slowing down ...
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