Johnny
Caribbean?
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Caribbean?
There is a few flare ups of convecton Southwest and South of Puerto Rico. Someone mentioned yesterday that Joe Bastardi thought that this area needs to be watched for future development in the GOM. By the looks of it that wouldn't be too far down the road. How do the conditions in the GOM look in the near future (1 to 3 weeks)? Does anyone agree with Joe's take on the convection the Caribbean? Any thoughts are welcome. Thanks.
Johnny
Johnny
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hurricanedude
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Stormsfury
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I'm going to have to disagree with you here SF (rare). If you look at the forces coming into play, you have the recipe for in-close development.
1) You've got a trof behind what almost amounts to a back door cold front kicking west across NE FL and nosing into the Gulf.
Animate the WV: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurrwv.html
2) You've got upper ridging behind the ULL (as you stated) which has been lifting northward slowly the last few days off the east coast of Central America.
3) You've got some trapped heat energy underneath said ridging which is showing some slight banding/outflow (perhaps blowoff from the ULL, but it's hinting at some curvature nonetheless).
4) You've got wave energy coming through the Islands.
Put it all together and there's a shot at something brewing up near Cuba or the Yucatan in the next few days. Now I'm not saying that something is going to happen, but the ingredients are similar to what spawned Bill and Claudette.
Stay tuned.
Steve
1) You've got a trof behind what almost amounts to a back door cold front kicking west across NE FL and nosing into the Gulf.
Animate the WV: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurrwv.html
2) You've got upper ridging behind the ULL (as you stated) which has been lifting northward slowly the last few days off the east coast of Central America.
3) You've got some trapped heat energy underneath said ridging which is showing some slight banding/outflow (perhaps blowoff from the ULL, but it's hinting at some curvature nonetheless).
4) You've got wave energy coming through the Islands.
Put it all together and there's a shot at something brewing up near Cuba or the Yucatan in the next few days. Now I'm not saying that something is going to happen, but the ingredients are similar to what spawned Bill and Claudette.
Stay tuned.
Steve
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