ATL: Ex-DANIELLE - Models

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Based upon the latest models and trends, it looks like Bermuda is now in danger. Yesterday it wasn't....

I still think everyone on the East Coast is in danger. As I said a few days ago I would have felt way better if the models had this puppy hitting the coast hard a few days back, and then been trending constantly Eastward ever since rather than this flip flop & now Westward motion.

[KWT]

Yeah and from memory the 12z suite tends to be the model that digs the upper troughs stronger then the other runs, based on the last 6 years of watching...still we will see, the 18z may well be totally different.

Now waiting to see what the 12z ECM ensembles suggests...

[KWT]

Bermuda would be hit real hard if that occured, though the GFS ensemblws on the 12z have shifted back eastwards again.

Who knows, they may shift back west tonight....

They may well bend back westwards, that being said I think the models are perhaps a little less keen on the idea of a threat to land, the models at 06/00z had more in the way of bendbacks, now really only the HWRF/Nogaps and a couple of the GFS ensembles have a bend back motion...and the Nogaps starts this one out with too much westerly motion IMO.

[plasticup]

I'll be curious to see if the models keep building that ridge over the coming days. Right now, being so far out, it's hard to put much faith in them. If they keep showing that ridge 2-3 days from now, then I'll start believing it.

[KWT]

I think the ridge will build but it won't matter how hard it builds if the storm is already to the north of where the central point of the upper high is, all it'll do in that solution is slow it down, perhaps even stall it out briefly.

Thats why I've been saying every single degree northwards is going to make the difference.

[JTD]

Personally,

I've seen enough. TD #6, based on ALL of the model evidence, is extremely likely to recurve harmlessly out to sea with perhaps our good friends in Bermuda, getting a glancing blow. Model run after model run screams fish. It's time to accept it.

Look at the 12z tropical model suite as well. Fish written all over it.

Those in Bermuda need to keep a very close eye on it though especially since it may be 145 mph+ if the latest Euro is right.

I just don't see a USEC threat at all. That said, things can always change and it would be terrible for those on the USEC to forget #6 is out there of course.

Regarding US threats, it's time to turn our attention elswhere and see what develops down the road.

[KWT]

Well I'm not quite as sold on a recurve as before because the fact the models are now developing a upper high unlike a few days ago when I was confident, still the North jog IMO maybe more significant then people think but we will see.

A recurve still clearly the most likely solution but still enough uncertainty to require real close watching and obviously the models still suggest Bermuda is right in the thick of it...

[JTD]

Well I'm not quite as sold on a recurve as before because the fact the models are now developing a upper high unlike a few days ago when I was confident, still the North jog IMO maybe more significant then people think but we will see.

A recurve still clearly the most likely solution but still enough uncertainty to require real close watching and obviously the models still suggest Bermuda is right in the thick of it...

Yeah I totally agree Bermuda needs to watch this extremely closely indeed.

Also, a CV storm historically has an extremely hard time not recurving.

Points further west probably not so much. I'd like to see 3 solid model runs and model consensus in a row indicating a U.S. threat before jumping back on that train.

[ronjon]

Well, according to HPC, a 594 dm upper ridge will be building over the mid-atlantic next weekend. A strong hurricane may actually "pump up" ridging to its north. It all depends on how much latitude the system gains over the next 5 days. We'll have a good idea probably by Tuesday or Wednesday which way this storm is gonna go.

HOT CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF
THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ADJACENT MS VALLEY NEXT
WEEKEND. THE NEW 12Z ECMWF SPREADS THE HEAT ALL THE WAY BY SUN
ACROSS THE GRT LAKES INTO NEW ENG AS IT BUILDS A HUGE 594DM UPPER
HIGH OVER THE OH VLY/MID ATLANTIC IN ABOUT A WEEK. MONSOONAL
PRECIP MAY PICK UP IN THE SRN STATES ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS VERY
STRONG UPPER HIGH NEXT WEEKEND.

[Dean4Storms]

Still not sold on a recurve yet, too many slight variations from storm intensity to the strength, positions and movements of troughs and ridges could make a world of difference. Nobody is out of the woods on this yet!

[KWT]

The problem is Ronjon the system may already be near or to the north of the upper highs center and if that happens all that will happen is maybe the system stalls and maybe drifts about until the next upper trough catches it...thats why I said the short term motion actually IS important right now.

That being said does need to be watched, enough uncertainty still left to suggest it may still track towards the east coast down the line...

[perk]

Personally,

I've seen enough. TD #6, based on ALL of the model evidence, is extremely likely to recurve harmlessly out to sea with perhaps our good friends in Bermuda, getting a glancing blow. Model run after model run screams fish. It's time to accept it.

Look at the 12z tropical model suite as well. Fish written all over it.

Those in Bermuda need to keep a very close eye on it though especially since it may be 145 mph+ if the latest Euro is right.

I just don't see a USEC threat at all. That said, things can always change and it would be terrible for those on the USEC to forget #6 is out there of course.

Regarding US threats, it's time to turn our attention elswhere and see what develops down the road.

This is a weather forum,we're all here to discuss these tropical systems.I as well as the other forum members respect your right to think this system will recurve just as some including myself have the right to think otherwise.

[hurricanefloyd5]

two models turn it west towards the end

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... ml#a_topad

look at the whrf and the nogaps

[Ivanhater]

12z Euro

[KWT]

Still waiting to see the 12z ECM ensembles though they seem to suggest from what I've heard a multitude of options still coming out from there ensembles.

Still if we were to look at it objectivly, most models still do recurve, and historically its at best 50-50 and so when you put it together you can see why people are going for the recurve route.

[KWT]

two models turn it west towards the end

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... ml#a_topad

look at the whrf and the nogaps

Yeah some interesting runs there though the rest are on thier way to a recurve still and I think if anything the 12z runs have ever so slightly backed off from the bend back idea perhaps due to the northerly jog earlier?

Ivanhater, the eCM is an insane run, probably would be even stronger then it shows on the wind swathe as well!

[Riptide]

It looks like the euro divided by zero.

[TheDreamTraveler]

Still waiting to see the 12z ECM ensembles though they seem to suggest from what I've heard a multitude of options still coming out from there ensembles.

Still if we were to look at it objectivly, most models still do recurve, and historically its at best 50-50 and so when you put it together you can see why people are going for the recurve route.

I don't think everybody's going for the recurve route. I know I'm still staying in between everything the models are showing, due to things changing. Because there's just too much that can happen this far out.

[KWT]

The ECM ensembles out to 96hrs looks just a touch to the south-west of the 12z runs from yesterday but pretty similar it has to be said.

[KWT]

ECM ensembles in general further north on the 12z at 168hrs compared to the 0z, 5 degrees north actually which is VERY significant in this type of pattern, those 5 degrees maybe the difference between a certain recurve and a 50-50 type pattern.

There are still some runs from the looks of things that go west but I'd say overall now its 85% of the models recurve and 15% bend back west...though even they could recurve further west...